MOScout Weekender: Poll on US Senate Match-Ups - Hallway on Threats to End of Session - Who Won the Week and more...
Greitens Over Nixon?
The Remington/MOScout poll (below) shows Eric Greitens with a lead over Jay Nixon in a theoretical US Senate match-up. The poll shows Republicans beating Dems in various scenarios, but even in this best possible case for Democrats. Underlying the poll is Remington’s +14 GOP weighting.
For context Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 15 points in 2020, and that was the closest of the statewide races. The other statewide races ranged from Mike Parson’s relatively close 17-point victory over Nicole Galloway to Jay Ashcroft’s gaping 24-point chasm beyond Yinka Faleti.
In past cycles, Dems have decried Remington’s weightings only to find Election Night full of disappointment.
And FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of 43 Remington shows an unexpected slight mean-reverted bias of 1.3% in favor of Dems.
What all this means: it’s a tough race for Dems regardless of who’s running.
Remington/MOScout Poll: More US Senate Scenarios
Survey conducted April 7 through April 8, 2021. 936 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 39%
Not sure: 11%
Q2: Possible candidates in the 2022 Election for U.S. Senate are the Republican Eric Greitens and the Democrat Scott Sifton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 49%
Scott Sifton: 42%
Undecided: 9%
Q3: Possible candidates in the 2022 Election for U.S. Senate are the Republican Eric Schmitt and the Democrat Scott Sifton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 51%
Scott Sifton: 39%
Undecided: 10%
Q4: Possible candidates in the 2022 Election for U.S. Senate are the Republican Eric Greitens and the Democrat Jay Nixon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 48%
Jay Nixon: 44%
Undecided: 8%
Q5: Possible candidates in the 2022 Election for U.S. Senate are the Republican Eric Schmitt and the Democrat Jay Nixon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 50%
Jay Nixon: 42%
Undecided: 8%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Session Threats
I asked the lobbyists: What's the greatest threat to a productive finish to session? 26 replies…
RESULTS
1. House-Senate infighting… 42.3%
2. Parson-Vescovo infighting… 19.2%
3. Senate GOP infighting… 23.0%
4. Something else… 15.4%
Sample of Comments
· Vescovo Plocher fighting
· Medicaid expansion acceptance or rejection in the Senate and its impact on the final week of session.
· GOP infighting, generally. Personality clashes and future political aspirations will chart the course of the remainder of this session and next. Some policy items will slip through as folks figure those issues are the best way to get elected to X, Y, or Congress.
· Keep a close eye on the gas tax in the House.
· [Senate infighting] Particularly if the top two senators in leadership are seriously considering running for Congress/Senate
· I would have normally said Senate GOP infighting but the dark cloud in the distance is what happens during budget conference. Presumably the Senate budget will be a vastly different approach than the House. Conference on these bills is shaping up to be tense to say the least.
· [Senate infighting] Leadership seems to be turning the Senate into a version of the House. See problems ahead.
Who Won the Week?
Tishaura Jones – Makes history as first Black woman to be mayor of St. Louis City.
Holly Rehder – Gets her PDMD passed through the Senate.
Glen Kolkmeyer – Lands the PSC appointment that so many coveted.
Eric Schmitt – His endless stream of lawsuits against the Biden Administration demonstrates one of his principal advantages over his rivals: his office affords him a perfect platform from which to generate news.
MO GOP – Midterms look more promising for Missouri Republicans as the Biden Administration fulfills the expectations of pushing a gun control agenda.
Doug Richey – Gets the gavel to a new House subcommittee focused on federal stimulus spending.
Find a downloadable version here.
eMailbag
On next Eastern Missouri US Attorney: Gabe Gore represented Eric Greitens and argued that destroying records is ok. The new US Attorney may have to investigate Eric Greitens. Gore isn’t going to be US Attorney...certainly not over someone like Reggie Harris.
On Eigel tax plan: Has anyone pointed out to Eigel that shifting from federally deductible income tax to much more difficult to deduct sales tax is a net tax increase for most taxpayers? In states without an income tax, you can deduct sales taxes paid, but you need receipts. Who actually does that?
$5K+ Contributions
IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri - $15,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Interested in Registration and Education PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Eric Greitens and Judy Baker.
Sunday: Heidi Kolkmeyer, Meghan McCann, Cara Alexander, Steven Roberts Sr., Matt Sain, Dave Leipholtz, and Mik Chester.