MOScout Weekender: Greitens Leads Field But Anyone's Game - Emery for CD-4 - Schroer PAC Gets $200K - Hallway on US Senate and more...

Emery Joins 4-CD Field

As Republicans gather in Kansas City for their Lincoln Days event, 2022 looms large and small.

·         Emery Announces.  Former Sen. Ed Emery on Facebook: It is not ambition that drives me but what I see as the clear abandonment at the federal level of Biblical principles, national heritage, common sense, and the values that have made America great. The contempt for the truth and the perversion of justice must not go on.  If, as a nation, we are to continue to enjoy the immeasurable blessings God has poured out from our country's earlies and miraculous beginnings there must be a return to those freedoms and eternal truths that have born us this far. With that as my vision I am to declaring my intention to run for the U.S. Congress – 4th District.  With a view first toward Heaven and a heart for my country and my family, I am committing to serving Missouri's 4th Congressional District if elected….

·         New PACs.  The creation of new IE PACs signals the beginning of the cycle.  These Independent Expenditure PACs allow candidates to raise money beyond the regular contribution limits.  However, the PACs spending may not be directed by the candidates.  Rep. Nick Schroer’s 1776 PAC received a $200K contribution yesterday (see below).  He’s expected to run in Senate 2, although as one GOP consultant noted, how the lines are drawn in that map will be critical to that primary.  And Rep. Tracy McCreery, running in Senate 24, has a PAC, Serve Missouri PAC.  The treasurer of that PAC is Sam Gladney.

Remington/MOScout Poll: GOP Statewide

Survey conducted June 9 through June 10, 2021. 1,011 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  Find the full poll results here.

Q1: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for State Auditor are Scott Fitzpatrick and David Gregory. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Scott Fitzpatrick: 24%

David Gregory: 11%

Undecided: 65%

Q2: Announced candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Mark McCloskey and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Eric Greitens: 34%

Vicky Hartzler: 14%

Mark McCloskey: 7%

Eric Schmitt: 25%

Undecided: 20%

Q3: When thinking about the next United State Senator, would you rather have someone whose first priority is helping the State of Missouri OR whose first priority is fighting the agenda of the Biden Administration?

Help Missouri: 37%

Fight Biden: 51%

Not sure: 12%

Q4: Some candidates are pursuing the endorsement of President Donald Trump. If Trump were to endorse a candidate in the United States Senate race, how would that influence your vote? Would you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote for that candidate, probably not vote for that candidate, or would it make no difference to how you would vote?

Definitely vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 37%

Probably vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 26%

Probably not vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 16%

No difference: 22%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Traditional and Establishment, Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Libertarian, or something else?

Traditional and Establishment: 24%

Evangelical: 16%

Trump Republican: 38%

Libertarian: 6%

Something else: 16%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: US Senate

I asked lobbyists: Who will be the Republican nominee for US Senate in 2022?  23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Eric Greitens… 21.7%

2. Vicky Hartzler… 34.8%

3. Mark McCloskey… 4.3%

4. Eric Schmitt… 17.4%

5. Someone else… 21.7%

Sample of Comments

·         Jason Smith has the best relationship with Trump and the best Congressional District to run from.

·         If the primary field gets to 5 or greater... [Greitens] has a real shot. Plus the cross-over of Democrats in the primary may be as high as it has ever been.

·         I selected Schmitt, but this is a tough question. Schmitt, Hartzler, and Greitens all seem to have an equal path to victory. I put McClosky behind the three of them but, he too, has a path to victory.

·         Hartzler is the only sure way to keep Greitens out, and everyone knows it. We’ll see if NRSC gets smart or gambles with Schmitt.

·         I sincerely have no idea. Going with the only woman in the field.

·         What a disaster of a field. Total debacle for the state. I'm vicariously embarrassed for Schmitt, an intelligent guy who is basically unrecognizable at this point after the last few years of Trump sycophants. Hartlzer isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer but at least she's not another opportunistic white guy pretending to be conservative, so I'll go with her.

·         Billy Long or Jason Smith

·         Hartzler if she’s the only woman in an otherwise crowded primary.

·         I’m guessing Schmitt but I don’t pretend to understand MO politics or the GOP base anymore (and I generally consider myself a Republican)

·         If Jason Smith gets in with the Trump endorsement, I think he will be hard to beat. He showed endless hard work crisscrossing his congressional district to win that seat. He has no partner or family so can dedicate innumerable hours to traveling and talking with voters. I think he's tough to beat if he sees the pathway and decides to make the leap.

·         Schmitt's got enough connections to get the Trump endorsement in the final days of the campaign. Think Trump will build the drama on who he is going to endorse before finally settling on Schmitt in late July 2022.

Who Won the Week?

Frontier Justice – Earned media baby, the gun shop is the site of Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler’s announcement and Governor Mike Parson’s SAPA signing.

Tracy McCreery – Announced her bid for Senate 24 to wide accolades. Feels like the instant favorite, although such titles are premature before district lines have been drawn.

Nick Schroer – Formed a new PAC which instantly lands a $200K contribution.  That’s an auspicious start to his Senate 2 bid, although – once more with feeling – until the lines are drawn, it’s not smart to be placing bets.

Summer Ballentine – AP’s Jeff City reporter lands interview with Chad Perkins accuser.

GOP consultants – As Jeff Smith tweeted, “There could be 3 open U.S. House seats due to the Senate race, all of which would have crowded Republican primaries.  If you're a MO Repub consultant & you can't make $$$ this cycle, you should probably hang it up.”

Find a downloadable version here.

Burch Passes

Jay Hahn writes on Facebook of the passing of Jerry Burch: It is with a very heavy heart we say good bye to the first Lobbyist I ever met. Jerry Burch was a mentor, and was directly responsible for placing me on a career path in lobbying. There are likely countless stories where Jerry helped mentor and sheppard someone on to bigger and better things. Jerry’s kind charisma and charm serve as the cornerstone of his legacy. I was lucky to cut my teeth with a role model like Jerry. All who knew Jerry respected him, and I and remain grateful that he helped set the table for our profession. RIP Jerry.

$5K+ Contributions

1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $200,000 from Richard Pogue.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Scott Charton, and Mark Mantovani.

Sunday: Nicole Galloway, Michelle Pleus, and Joe Smith.