MOScout Weekender: New US Senate Poll... Greitens Keeps Lead, Hartzler Gains, Two Tiers of Candidates.

New US Senate Poll

See a new US Senate poll below.  A few thoughts…

Eric Greitens retains the lead. Polls are snapshots, so you don’t want to try to forecast without imagining the twists ahead.  Still those twists (as imagined by me) don’t necessarily derail Greitens. 

·         I imagine that Mark McCloskey won’t file next month.  Those voters seem predisposed to migrate to Greitens. 

·         I imagine that other candidates will take aim at Greitens eventually.  But aren’t his flaws already well-known?  I’m not sure how much downside he has.  We’ll see…

There’s a clear separation between the top tier candidates and the others.

·         The way things stand now, you could envision a path for Greitens, Schmitt or Hartzler. The others need a gamechanger. 

·         For Billy Long, there’s one path: Trump’s endorsement.  That really has to be his whole strategy now.  With that in mind, the “Dems rigged the election” ad and it’s subsequent removal from YouTube were perfect moves. Will it pay off?  We’ll see…

Eric Schmitt didn’t move between this poll and last one nearly two months ago (12/4/21).  He went from 24% to 23%, a polling wiggle. 

·         It makes me wonder if there’s a diminishing marginal return to each lawsuit he files, and maybe the return is approaching zero.

·         Schmitt may need to come up with a new trick to find new voters. We’ll see….

Remington/MOScout Poll: Republican Statewide

Survey conducted January 26 through January 27, 2022. 902 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Jay Ashcroft’s job performance as the Secretary of State of Missouri?

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 16%

Not sure: 31%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Lieutenant Governor of Missouri?

Approve: 46%

Disapprove: 13%

Not sure: 41%

Q3: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate are the Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Dave Schatz, and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Eric Greitens: 28%

Vicky Hartzler: 19%

Billy Long: 7%

Mark McCloskey: 5%

Dave Schatz: 1%

Eric Schmitt: 23%

Undecided: 17%               

Q4: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for State Auditor are David Gregory and Scott Fitzpatrick. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

David Gregory: 12%

Scott Fitzpatrick: 25%

Undecided: 63%

Q5: With the benefit of hindsight, looking back now over the past two years, how would rate Missouri’s response to the COVID pandemic; excellent, good, average, or poor?

Excellent: 13%

Good: 40%

Average: 25%

Poor: 19%

Not sure: 3%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Conflict of Interest?

I asked if state senators who are running for Congress should recuse themselves from voting on the congressional redistricting map.  23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Yes… 26.1%

2. No… 73.9%

3. Not sure… 0%

Sample of Comments

·         Absolutely not. They were elected to serve so they should vote.

·         Sure, in a perfect world. However this probably doesn't even crack the top 10 conflicts of interest in the building.

·         One (wo)man, one vote. They also haven't filed for office officially.

·         Just recuse the legislature. You can’t piecemeal who can and who can’t.

Who Won the Week?

Jay Wasson – Filed his huge quarter early showing over $800,000 in cash. This raises the bar and may quickly collapse the race as other candidates will suddenly not look viable.

Eric Greitens – Continues to lead the field with six months left in the race. This week a ruling went against his nemesis Kim Gardner and fuels the hope he’ll get some ammo to prove his resignation was base on a WITCH HUNT.

Vicky Hartzler – Keeps ticking up ever so slightly in Remington/MOScout polls.  She’s well positioned within striking range.  And maybe she has an inside track on a potential Hawley endorsement?  We’ll see…

Republican auditor nominee – Can’t beat someone with no one.  And right now, MO Dems have no one running for auditor.

Find a downloadable version here.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Alan Gray, Karen Buschmann, Tommie Pierson Sr., Craig Redmon, Wayne Bledsoe, Brian Schmidt, Rory Riddler, and Allison Bruns.

Sunday: Chuck Caisley, and Erika Brees.