MOScout Daily Update: Senate 24 Tightens - Hallway Sees McCreery Win - Page PAC Hits Mantovani - WWTW and more...
Page PAC Hits Mantovani on Political Contributions
A new ad from the pro-Sam Page PAC attacks Mark Mantovani as a “MAGA extremist,” citing his contributions to Eric Greitens and Rudy Guiliani. See the ad here.
Mantovani faces Page in the St. Louis County Executive race.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 24
Survey conducted October 18 through October 20, 2022. 406 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 8th General Election for State Senate are: George J Hruza, the Republican; Tracy McCreery, the Democrat; and the Libertarian LaDonna Higgins. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
George Hruza: 44%
Tracy McCreery: 49%
LaDonna Higgins: 1%
Undecided: 6%
Q2: Generally speaking, which party do you think does the best job handling the issue of healthcare?
Democrats: 50%
Republicans: 41%
Not sure: 9%
Q3: Would you be upset if a legislator had missed many votes?
Yes, I would be very upset: 44%
I would be somewhat upset: 25%
No, I would not be upset: 9%
Not sure: 21%
Q4: Would a candidate’s support for pro-life politicians influence your support?
I would probably vote for a candidate that supported pro-life politicians: 39%
I would probably not vote for a candidate that supported pro-life politicians: 41%
Not sure: 20%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate 24
I asked lobbyists for their Senate 24 forecast. 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. I expect George Hruza to win… 8%
2. I expect Tracy McCreery to win… 84%
3. Too close to call… 8%
Sample of Comments
· It will be close, but the Hruza campaign has been behind since July and they won’t catch her now.
· The environment trending Hruza’sd way. This isn't a Jefferson City hallway popularity contest, it's an actual election with real voters. It will be very close.
· George by 3.
· It will be close, but Tracy is a well-known commodity who’s been working parts of this district for years.
· [McCreery is a] solid candidate Hard worker. On the doors. Raising money. Grass roots.
· I just don't see George as a strong candidate, but I've been wrong before.
· As good a fit for the district as Dems could produce at this point.
Who Won the Week?
No on A3 – The opposition to Amendment 3 seems to out-hustling the pro-legalization campaign, landing opposition from groups across the political spectrum. But does it matter in the face of a huge money gap? That’s the question.
Jon Patterson – He’s sent $100k to HRCC in the past week. That's a lot of cash, and right when they need it most. One lobbyist tells me he’s seized the momentum in the floor leader race. We’ll see….
Scott Fitzpatrick – Is it too early to call the auditor’s race? It’s hard for a Democrat to win statewide these days. But against a scandal-free Republican and with just $16K in the bank? That looks impossible.
Librarians – The sweetest, kindest people in the world – until you mess with their books.
Find a downloadable version here.
eMailbag on Billy Busch
All I’ve learned in the past 24 hours is that I wouldn’t vote for Billy Busch to be my brother…
$5K+ Contributions
Brighter Days for Missouri (pro-Hruza) - $17,500 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.
Brighter Days for Missouri - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Corwin Ford Lincoln Republic.
NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Patterson for Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $50,000 from Navarro Farms MO LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $35,000 from Missouri Hemp Improvement Company.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $30,000 from BeLeaf Medical LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $25,000 from Heya Missouri Holdings Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $25,000 from Blue Arrow Missouri LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from True Level Investments Inc.
Teamsters Local 600 DRIVE PAC - $6,736 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC Federal Committee.
Electrical Workers Voluntary Political Education & Legislative Funds - Missouri - $23,964 from IBEW Local One.
Excelsior PAC - $18,000 from Cornerstone 1791.
Missourians for Safer Streets - $10,000 from Trails West, Inc.
Association of MO Electric Cooperatives (AMEC PAC) - $10,000 from AECI.
Southland Progress - $10,000 from Together KC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Caleb Rowden, Chris Kelly, and Rocky Miller.
Sunday: Rebecca McClanahan, Kenny Murdock, Leann Hager, and Bryan Pratt (the big 5-0).