MOScout Daily Update: New Page Ad - MOScout Predictions - Parson Shrugs - WaPo on Schmitt Ad and more...
New Page Ad
St. Louis County Executive Sam Page’s new ad attacks Mark Mantovani as an extremist who supports Republicans. See it here.
Mark Mantovani. He ran for county executive twice as a Democrat. Now as a Republican. At least he’s no longer hiding who he is…
· In conventional campaign roadmaps, this week will have some of the hardest hitting ad, with next week candidates pivoting to kind and gentle positive closing ads.
MOScout Forecast
I’ve uploaded a quick spreadsheet of my predictions on next month’s elections. Find it here.
I’m picking…
· Republicans to win the statewide races.
· Rep. Tracy McCreery holding Senate 24 for Dems.
· A status quo night for House races: 115 Republicans (67 are uncontested) and 48 Democrats (27 are uncontested).
More on STL School Shooting
Post-Dispatch reports on the frustratingly ineffective laws to prevent dangerous people from possessing guns. Read it here.
· The man accused of killing a teacher and teen earlier this week in a south St. Louis school shooting bought the AR-15-style gun from a private seller after an FBI background check blocked his attempted purchase from a licensed dealer in St. Charles. No existing law would have prevented the private sale of the gun to Orlando Harris, 19, police said.
· Police responded to Harris’ home on Oct. 15 after his mother found a gun, the same used in Monday’s attack, in the house and wanted it removed. Police said Thursday they did not have the authority to take the gun because Missouri does not have a red flag law.
Meanwhile
KSDK reports that Governor Mike Parson thinks laws are pointless when it comes to guns. See their report here. "You got a criminal that committed a criminal act, you know, and all the laws in the world are not going to stop those things."
WaPo on Schmitt Ad: 4 Pinocchios
Washington Post does a fact-check on Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s ad claiming that Trudy Valentine wants to defund the police. See it here.
Polls show Schmitt with a commanding lead in the race, which makes one wonder why in the final weeks his campaign has resorted to misleading video editing and guilt by association to make a bogus claim. He earns Four Pinocchios.
MOIndy on Anti-A3’s Strange Bedfellows
The Missouri Independent has an article about the “ideologically scattershot constellation of organizations and elected officials that have come out of the woodwork in recent weeks to urge Missourians to reject a marijuana legalization proposal appearing on the Nov. 8 ballot as Amendment 3.”
· The Missouri Baptist Convention and Pro-Choice Missouri don’t often find themselves on the same team. Same for the Missouri NAACP and Missouri Association of Prosecuting Attorneys. The Missouri Catholic Conference, Missouri Sheriff’s United, the Missouri Hospital Association and the Missouri Farm Bureau have each announced opposition to the proposal this month.
· Critiques of Amendment 3 are all over the map. And at times, they seem to conflict with each other. The Missouri Democratic Party, for example, refused to endorse the proposal in part because it “may negatively impact minorities, people of color and low-income earning Missourians.” Meanwhile, conservative groups are stoking concerns about Amendment 3 by falsely claiming it is an attempt to insert critical race theory into the constitution by creating a position of “chief equity officer.”
· For its part, the campaign in support of Amendment 3 has a coalition of its own, including the Missouri ACLU, the Missouri Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers and the Missouri chapter of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws. Organized labor is also lining up behind Amendment 3, most recently the Missouri
Previewing the Weekender
Tomorrow we’ll have a brand-new statewide poll…
Lobbyists Registrations
David Kirby deleted Missouri State Auditor's Office.
$5K+ Contributions
Uniting Missouri PAC (pro-Parson) - $6,600 from Randy Coil.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,500 from Jackson County Leadership PAC.
Local 41 Political Action Fund - $19,072 from Local 41 Political Action Fund.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Alex Riley for State Representative.
Make Liberty Win Missouri - $13,413 from Make Liberty Win Federal.
Move Forward STL (pro-Mantovani) - $7,500 from Hermann Capital Management Inc.
Move Forward STL - $10,000 from Stephen Rafferty.
Together KC - $10,000 from JE Dunn Construction Company.
Together KC - $15,000 from Ambridge Hospitality LLC (Plano, TX).
Majority Forward - $15,000 from Everytown for Gun Safety (New York, NY).
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Sarah Unsicker for State Representative.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Katie Steele Danner, and Bradley Cooper.