MOScout Weekender: Schmitt Leads by 9 - Fitz by 17 - Hallway Sees Bernskoetter as Floor Leader - SAPA Effect? and more...

The SAPA Effect

Post-Dispatch looks in detail whether St. Louis City Police could have / should have taken confiscated the gun used in the shooting Monday when they were called to the home nine days before the shooting.  Read it here.

·       “It is our belief that under existing state law SLMPD would have no authority to seize the firearm in question,” police Sgt. Charles Wall said in a statement.

·       St. Louis police confirmed they were notified by the FBI that Harris had failed the background check, as a new federal law requires. The NICS Denial Identification Act went into effect Oct. 1.

·       Police had also made multiple mental health-related trips to Harris’ home, where he lived with his mother. Records show officers were called to the home five other times in the past two years, including for a “crisis response,” a “violent and/or weapon” call and a suicide attempt.

·       But Missouri law does not include language that prohibits a person who has been “involuntarily committed” from possessing a gun — it prohibits gun ownership only if the more serious step is taken of declaring a person “incompetent.”

·       So Harris eventually bought the AR-15 from a private seller, which does not require a background check.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Schmitt Leads With Two Weeks Left

Survey conducted October 24 through October 25, 2022. 1,011 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.  See the full results here.

Q1: What issue is most important to you? 

Reducing crime: 18% 

Reining in healthcare costs: 7% 

Protecting abortion rights: 21% 

Stopping illegal immigration: 15% 

Tackling inflation: 22% 

Something else: 9% 

Not sure: 9% 

Q2: What is your opinion of Joe Biden? 

Favorable: 40% 

Unfavorable: 56% 

No opinion: 4% 

Q3: The candidates in the November 8th General Election for US Senate are: Eric Schmitt, the Republican; Trudy Busch Valentine, the Democrat ; Jonathan Dine, the Libertarian ;  and Paul Venable, the Constitution Party candidate. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?  

Eric Schmitt: 51% 

Trudy Busch Valentine: 42% 

Jonathan Dine: 2%     

Paul Venable: 1%

Undecided: 4%

Q4: The candidates in the November 8th General Election for State Auditor are: Scott Fitzpatrick, the Republican; Alan Green, the Democrat ; John A. Hartwig Jr., the Libertarian 

Scott Fitzpatrick: 54% 

Alan Green: 37% 

John A. Hartwig Jr: 3% 

Undecided: 6%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Next Senate Floor Leader

I asked lobbyists to again predict who the next Senate Floor Leader will be.  Bernskoetter is the favorite. 24 replies…

RESULTS

1. Mike Bernskoetter… 62.5%

2. Andrew Koenig… 8.3%

3. Cindy O’Laughlin… 16.7%

4. Someone else… 12.5%

7. Impossible to know… %

Sample of Comments

·       Who knows. The movement within the caucus is greater between Election Day and the caucus vote than it has been for the last year.

·       Still a fluid situation, but Mike is the likely winner.

·       [O’Laughlin] pulls together a coalition of normals and crazies to get the votes.

·       It is Bernskoetter’s to lose but don’t sleep on O’Laughlin

·       I really don't know. It's a 50/50 between Bernskoetter and Koenig or O'Laughlin.

·       Cindy O emerging as bridge between conservatives and moderates.

·       Koenig gets along w both factions.

Lender Hit With Complaint

St. Louis Business Journal reports that the “federal government and state of California are accusing a provider of controversial energy loans in St. Louis of ‘deceptive practices,’ part of a complaint lodged in federal court in California. It seeks monetary relief plus an injunction against the company, Ygrene Energy Fund, preventing it from alleged deception and requiring that it meaningfully oversee contractors who act as its salesforce… The firm had been the city of St. Louis' only lender for both residential and commercial property assessed clean energy, or PACE, loans, and while other lenders operate statewide, had been the most prominent PACE lender in the St. Louis region.”

Ygrene’s Jeff City lobbyists are: Jeff Aboussie, Alex Eaton, Becky Lohmann, Jewell Patek, Danny Pfeifer, Greg Porter, Jasmine Wells, and David Willis.

Law and Order

Lobbyist Bev Ehlen is in the October 16 – 22 weekly listing of arrestees from the Warren County Sheriff’s office.

Who Won the Week?

WWTW will return next week.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $30,000 from Hegeman for Missouri.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Barnett Helzberg Jr.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Razer for Missouri.

Missouri Gaming PAC - $13,000 from Harrah's North Kansas City (Las Vegas, NV).

Page PAC - $10,000 from The Union Labor Life Insurance Company (Silver Spring, MD).

Citizens For Frank White Jr - $10,000 from Kenneth McClain.

Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $10,000 from Andrew and Barbara Taylor.

Missouri United - $10,000 from G. J. Grewe Brokerage and Development LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $25,000 from GF Saint Mary LLC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund (New York, NY).

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $11,000 from Open Concept, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Mike Henderson, Cara Hoover, Gail McCann Beatty, Chip Casteel, and Ewell Lawson.

Sunday: Bruce DeGroot, Kyna Iman, Mark Parkinson, and Vince Schoemehl.