MOScout Daily Update: Kelly Drops Leadership Bid - Childcare Gets Bipartisan Push - New Coatar Ad - Odd Bounces Ahead? and more...

Kelly Exits House Floor Race

Rep. Hannah Kelly announced that she was withdrawing from the House Floor Leader race.  This leaves only Reps. Mike Haffner and Jon Patterson, though one observer says “it doesn’t make a ton of difference.”

·       The thinking: The assumption is that Kelly’s clutch of voters (estimated by one source to be about a dozen) was largely headed to Patterson on the second round anyway.  “Before Kelly dropped Haffner had to win on the first round, so that doesn’t change.”

1 Big Thing: Odd Bounce Awareness

I’ve probably watched about 1,000 hours of little baseball in the past four years.  No joke.  One thing is in the warm ups to the game, sometimes you’ll see the infields are hard or the outfields are patchy.  And you know there will be a couple plays in the game where the routine groundball or single will turn into a single or extra base hit.

With that in mind, here are a few odd bounces to watch for…

Tightening US Senate race

·       A couple folks tell me that Team Valentine feels it’s a closer race than the poll from MOScout/Remington which showed Eric Schmitt with a 9-point lead.  Interestingly, in that poll, Valentine is winning Independents.

·       Turnout is the big question mark.  Is there a fall-off from Trump-inspired Republican voters?  Do suburban women register a protest vote against Dobbs?

Red wave

·       The opposite bounce would be a “red wave.”  Clearly Republicans are feeling this optimism.  Axios reports that nationally Republicans are spending money in places that Biden won handily in 2020.  Dems have targeted districts in Missouri that Biden won, but they might not be as competitive as Dems think.

·       I’ve heard several reports that House Minority Leader Crystal Quade is having to work hard to cement her re-election.  She’s in a +7.3% Biden district.  So, if she’s working, it means those folks in 2-3% Biden districts are vulnerable to a “red wave.”

Senate Leadership Race:

·       There’s no one declared against Sen. Caleb Rowden to become the next pro tem. And the conventional wisdom is that it’s a narrow path for either Sens. Andrew Koenig or Cindy O’Laughlin to defeat Sen. Mike Bernskoetter for floor leader.  But don’t get lulled into complacency.  It’s not unheard of for a late-breaking new candidate to rearrange the seemingly set voting blocs.

·       The vote count is small enough and relationships are personal enough that a couple shifting votes can matter a great deal.

Spin On

Everybody makes their own spin. Here are two public reactions to the MOScout/Remington poll over the weekend…

·       Team Schmitt for US Senate tweet: Eric Schmitt Maintains Massive Lead Over Billionaire Heiress Trudy Busch Valentine.

·       Valentine fundraising text: SURGING! David, it's Trudy Busch Valentine. Recent polling shows my campaign gaining ground against my extreme opponent, Eric Schmitt.

Coatar Ad

As we enter the final stretch, candidates are starting to make their closing arguments.  Here’s the latest ad from Jack Coatar.  He’s running for President of the Board of Aldermen in St. Louis City. 

Gun crime, dangerous streets and overflowing dumpsters.  You know our city’s problems. You see them every day.  And people have had enough, they leave.  Making it harder to provide services and support for our schools.

But in the 7th ward we’ve grown by 23% and bought over $800 million in new investments.

We did it by working together. Neighbors, businesses, and union workers to create jobs and affordable housing and opportunity.

I’m Jack Coatar and I want to work for you at City Hall.

Momentum for Childcare Action

It feels like there’s a lot of people pushing for action on childcare…

The Missouri Chamber held its annual workforce conference in Independence last week. Eco Devo expert Ted Abernathy addressed strategies for enhancing the state’s workforce by addressing root issues of stagnant growth, which are childcare and housing, while at the same time noting that the state needs more babies to enter the pipeline. Governor Mike Parson said it’s time to address childcare “whether you like it or not.”

Later in the week, a steering committee to address early care and education solutions chaired by Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe met Friday to, as Senator Cindy O’Laughlin said, “do something” about a system that isn’t working for families and businesses. Other bold names on the committee include Emily van Schenkhof, Children’s Trust Fund; Linda Rallo, Aligned; Dr. Jim Anderst, Children’s Mercy, Kansas City; Charlie Shields, University Health; Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern; Brian Schmidt, Kids Win Missouri; Paul Williams, Springfield Police Department; Grenita Lathan, Springfield Public Schools; Ana Hernandez Kent, St. Louis Federal Reserve; Lakesha Robinson, St. Louis City Mayor’s Office; Sly James, Former Mayor of Kansas City; Wendy Doyle, United WE; and Daryl McCall, Retired Brigadier General.

$5K+ Contributions

Legal Missouri 2022 - $200,000 from Green Four Ventures LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $38,000 from Green Four Ventures LLC.

Page PAC (pro-Page) - $5,001 from St. Louis Association of Realtors Political Action Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Ken McClure, and Paul Quinn.