MOScout Weekender: Poll on Roe V Wade - Wasson Buys TV - Carpenters Back McCreery - Roberts Latest on Bush and more...
Wasson Places TV Buy
Statement from Jay Wasson for Congress: Wasson for Congress has dipped into it’s over $830,000 Cash on Hand position (at the end of the last quarter) to secure its ability to reach 7th Congressional District voters down the home stretch of the campaign. Wasson on Thursday laid-in a six week, six figure, robust buy on Springfield and Joplin TV stations for the weeks leading up to the August Primary---part of an over $600k media commitment. Wasson has already aired two different ads in the past month outlining his Contract with the Ozarks on Springfield and Joplin TV.
Carpenters Back McCreery
Rep. Tracy McCreery received a $50K check from the Carpenters’ new PAC in her bid to succeed Sen. Jill Schupp in Senate 24.
McCreery reported $531,231 on-hand in her April quarterly report. That included a loan of $100K to herself.
Her likely Republican opponent, George Hruza, had $92,443 on-hand (including a $75,000 loan to himself).
Roberts: Bush Loves You Like Your Ex
I’m not sure if this is running on radio, or just out on the web. But Sen. Steve Roberts’ latest swing at Congresswoman Cori Bush (“Who Love You”) closes with the zinger, “Sure, she claims to love you – so did your ex.”
TBV Talks Addiction
Trudy Busch Valentine, continuing her introduction to voters, offers a Mother’s Day message aimed especially to “all the other mothers who have lost a child to opioid overdose.”
I want to remind you of what they say in recovery: we didn’t cause, it couldn’t control it, and we couldn’t cure it. But together we can make progress to address this terrible problem.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Abortion
Survey conducted May 4 through May 5, 2022. 1,066 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you think Roe versus Wade should be overturned, leaving abortion laws up to individual states?
Yes, overturn: 48%
No, don’t overturn: 40%
Not sure: 12%
Q2: If Roe versus Wade is overturned, Missouri law would prohibit all abortions except in circumstances of a medical emergency. Do you think that would make access to abortions too restrictive, not restrictive enough, or about right?
Too restrictive: 44%
Not restrictive enough: 17%
About right: 30%
Not sure: 9%
Q3: Do you believe that life begins at conception?
Yes: 61%
No: 25%
Not sure: 14%
Q4: Some anti-abortion advocates would also like to prohibit birth control methods which act after conception such as IUDs and so-called morning after pills. Do you agree those should be outlawed?
Yes: 18%
No: 63%
Not sure: 19%
Q5: Do you support or oppose abortions after 20 weeks?
Support: 22%
Oppose: 68%
Not sure: 10%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Roe Impact
I asked lobbyists, “How do you think overturning Roe v Wade would impact Missouri politics?” 18 replies…
RESULTS
1. Energize Republicans more than Democrats… 38.9%
2. Energize Democrats more than Republicans… 38.9%
3. Make no significant impact on Missouri politics... 22.2%
Sample of Comments
· Democrats in MO were allegedly “energized” to oppose Donald Trump and Gov Parsons Covid policies. Then They both got re-elected in MO by +15. There just aren’t enough of them left statewide to be energized.
· Lets hope some Republicans don’t try to take this a step further and limit access to birth control.
· You basically can’t get an abortion in Missouri now without jumping through many hoops and it hasn’t made the state any bluer.
· Overall I think very little. It may make margins tighter in the suburbs but we have been living in a post roe world for quite some time already in this state
· Another short term win for the Republicans. But long term it diminishes the connection between evangelicals and the GOP. Once abortion is banned in MO, my grandmother has no reason to vote Republican.
· It will be a race to see who can be the first to call for a special session to do something to make headlines
· I expect to see a meaningful impact in favor of Democrats in SD 24 and 4 or 5 tossup suburban House districts.
Who Won the Week
Mike Cierpiot and Tony Luetkemeyer – Sponsors of the first Senate bills to cross the legislative finish-line and head to the governor’s desk.
Dems in CD-2 – I’ve been skeptical of Dems ability to make this competitive, but the combination of Roe being overturned and no new congressional map passed could change my mind.
Eric Greitens – The Vance victory in Ohio could embolden Donald Trump to pick Greitens as his guy in Missouri.
Like practically everyone – The budget seemed to have something for everyone. Democrats were sending out press releases crowing about the line items they were able to secure. Republicans did the same, even fiscal conservatives could point to the tax credits coming.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
MBA Truman Region PAC - $6,198 from Country Club Bank.
Laborers Union Local #42 Voluntary Political Fund - $50,000 from Laborers' Local No. 42
AGC of MO PAC - $7,700 from Twehous Excavating Company, Inc.
Serve Missouri PAC (Pro-McCreery) - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
Josh Peter For Judge - $6,675 from Meghan Litecky.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer (the big 7-0!), Rep. Brenda Shields, Scott Sifton, Stuart Murray, and Don Phillips.
Sunday: Tom Dempsey, and Jeanie Lauer.