MOScout Daily Update: Team Schmitt Buoyed By Polls - July Quarter Spreadsheet - Houx for Senate 31? - Burton Files Limited Activity and more...
Money Trails
Of note from the large contributions list (below)…
· Floor Leader Caleb Rowden’s PAC received $200K from RightPath and another $150K from Rex Sinquefield. The money will presumably be deployed to help Republicans in primaries who will be supportive of Rowden’s leadership next session.
· RightPath also sent $100K to Speaker-elect Dean Plocher’s PAC, as well as $20K to Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick’s PAC.
· Interesting to see the Carpenters’ union giving to the House Republican Campaign Committee…
Brown Amends July Report
I wrote with shock on Saturday that Sen. Justin Brown’s candidate committee hadn’t spent any money – according to his July campaign finance filing. Indeed, it turns out that Brown has been spending money on his re-election campaign. A hunk of money, more than $90,000.
His campaign filed an amended report yesterday – citing the technical difficulties amid the MEC website outage for their incomplete first report.
And
For what it’s worth, although Rep. Suzie Pollock is running a vigorous campaign aimed at outflanking Brown on the right, in my eyes no Republican senators are in danger of losing their re-election.
But
Over in the House, the one incumbent who certainly looks in trouble is Democrat Michael Burton in House 92. His July report was Limited Activity, meaning he didn’t raise or spend more than $500. Meanwhile his primary opponent, Kenny Edgar, has a strong labor background and is running a real campaign. That South St. Louis County district could potentially be a swing district. One of Edgar’s arguments for his campaign is that Dems need a go-getter candidate to keep the seat blue.
· Obviously, an incumbent will lose in House 73 where Reps. Mike Person and Raychel Proudie were drawn together into the same district. And on the Republican side, House 2 where Mazzie Boyd is taking on incumbent Rep. Randy Railsback is on folks’ radar as well.
MOScout Update: 2022 Watch
I added a dedicated page on the website to follow the 2022 primaries. You can find it on the home page at the top or just go here. It has the House primaries guides from last month. And a spreadsheet which has campaign finance numbers from last quarter for each Senate and House primary race.
I plan to update this spreadsheet, and use this page on the website as we head into the general elections.
Schmitt Buoyed By Polls
Regional polls are giving Team Schmitt the belief that they have the momentum with just weeks left in the US Senate race.
Last week, I mentioned a poll circulating from the Senate 2 race which showed Eric Greitens fading in St. Charles County.
Now a Remington poll from last week (July 12-14) covering Senate 22, Jefferson County shows Eric Schmitt leading Greitens (though within the polls +/-5% MoE) 25% to 21% and Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler running back in third at 15%.
· Schmitt cheerleader: “Combine this with the St. Charles County poll results from last week and you see a pattern emerging: Schmitt winning a large-population, conservative, bellwether Republican counties…”
Looking Around the Corner: Brattin Seat
With Sen. Rick Brattin definitely in the hunt for the CD-4 seat, folks are starting to consider who might be taking his place in the Senate.
At the top of the list is Rep. Dan Houx. Houx was considered a favorite to succeed Sen. Denny Hoskins in Senate 21 in 2024. But redistricting yanked that district into a different shape and space - handing it toward Rep. Kurtis Gregory.
Houx, meanwhile, is a good geographic fit for Brattin’s new Senate 31 district.
Senate 22: Vescovo Endorses Shaul
Speaker Rob Vescovo – who at one time considered running in Senate 22 – endorsed Rep. Dan Shaul for that seat on Friday. See the social media post here.
We’re about two weeks out now. One lobbyist thinks these sorts of endorsements can move some “undecideds make up their mind.” We’ll see.
More on Conservative Justice PAC
I wrote about a new PAC with $250K in the bank, funded by two trial attorney firms last week. But a couple MOScouters say that Conservative Justice PAC is more properly viewed as a PAC for lobbyist Steve Tilley’s clients than a trial attorney PAC.
In sussing out the PACs contributions, one explains that Rep. Curtis Trent is “far out there on tort,” but “look at what [Rep. Nick Schroer] did on Hick’s MMJ bill during session, this is about likely about MMJ…”
All together now: we’ll see….
Top 20 PACs COH
Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC - $2 million
RightPath PAC - $1.8 million
Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1.2 million
American Dream PAC - $1.1 million
Committee for Liberty - $972,129
Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $901,101
Missouri REALTORS PAC - $849,286
Page PAC - $660,642
Luetkemeyer For Senate - $648,753
MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $624,743
McCreery for Missouri - $602,123
Fitzpatrick For Missouri - $578,502
Lucas For KC - $558,284
Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $543,475
Ashcroft For Missouri - $543,411
Mighty Missouri PAC - $474,575
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $471,247
Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $466,535
Leadership For America - $465,746
House Republican Campaign Committee - $ 459,254
Lobbyists Registrations
Gamble & Schlemeier added National Realty Advisors.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Forward PAC (pro-Rowden) – $200,000 from RightPath PAC.
Missouri Forward PAC – $150,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $100,000 from Rightpath PAC.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitzpatrick) - $50,000 from MO Federation for Children PAC.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $25,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $20,000 from Rightpath PAC.
Southwest Missouri Patriot PAC (pro-White) - $7,600 from Conservative Leadership for SO.
Show Me Growth PAC (pro-Gregory) - $25,000 from Alliance for Economic Progress.
MO Six PAC (pro-Bernskoetter) - $7,500 from Penn National Gaming, Inc.
MO Six PAC - $5,500 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Faith, Family & Freedom PAC - $150,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $36,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
Committee to Elect JoAnn Lawson - $12,500 from JoAnn Lawson.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Becky Cook, Jim Gwinner, Charlie Davis, and Gary Otten.