MOScout Weekender: Senate 2 Poll - New Valentine Ads - Hallway Picks Fitzpatrick - Who Won The Week and more...
First in MOScout: New Valentine Ads
Here are a pair of new ads being released for Trudy Busch Valentine.
· Justice and Opportunity: This is the rebuttal ad to Lucas Kunce’s Veiled Prophet ad. It features a testimony to the character of Valentine from a former colleague at the SLU School of Nursing.
· Times Like These: Lays out Valentine’s agenda to “take on” insurance companies, invest in mental health and help seniors.
Lakin on Jan6 Impact
Republican consultant Joe Lakin gets quoted in a Washington Post article about January 6’s political impact. See it here.
That sentiment may cause some voters to tire of Trump, in part because of his focus on debating the results of an election he lost. Republican primary voters “by a margin of 2 to 1 in Midwestern states want candidates and elected officials to focus on the future, not the past,” said Joe Lakin, a Republican media consultant in Missouri.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 2
Survey conducted July 19 through July 21, 2022. 344 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Senate District 2 are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Nick Schroer: 36%
John D. Wiemann: 25%
Undecided: 39%
Q2: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Auditor are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
David Gregory: 18%
Scott Fitzpatrick: 32%
Undecided: 50%
Q3: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for US Senate are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 37%
Billy Long: 3%
Eric Greitens: 15%
Vicky Hartzler: 20%
Mark McCloskey: 5%
Dave Schatz: 5%
Someone else: 3%
Undecided: 12%
Q4: Should Donald Trump run for president in 2024?
Yes: 51%
No: 38%
Not Sure: 11%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Auditor’s Race
I asked lobbyists, “Who's the favorite to win the auditor's race?” 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. David Gregory… 9.1%
2. Scott Fitzpatrick… 81.8%
3. Toss up… 9.1%
Sample of Comments
· Better fundamentals and more discipline from Fitz.
· If Gregory drives I-70 corridor voter turnout, he could win.
· Fitz by double digits
· I chose Fitz because that’s who I want to win. The world could use a few more boring, analytical public servants. Work Horse > Show Pony
· Haven't seen reliable polling, so far think Gregory's ads are better.
· Just haven’t seen enough momentum for Gregory.
· Already having statewide name ID makes the difference.
· Fitz seems to be running the better campaign so far.
Who Won the Week?
Kathy Swan – Back in the game as she’s appointed by Gov. Mike Parson to the state Labor and Industrial Relations Commission.
Kenny Edgar – It’s hard to beat an incumbent, but Edgar appears on track to do just that in South St. Louis County. However, this is now a swing district, and Republicans have a strong candidate ready for November.
Dan Houx – Chatter starting up about Houx potentially headed to the Senate if Brattin wins the 4-CD race.
David Winton – Wins the lobbying contract to rep the state’s most populous county, St. Louis County, in Jefferson City.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Jeffco Vision PAC (pro-Shaul) - $20,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
H-PAC (pro-Dan Houx) - $7,500 from Penn National Gaming Inc.
JEFF PAC (pro-Roorda) - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.
JanePAC (pro-Dueker) - $10,000 from Stephen Rafferty.
Majority Forward (MO Senate Dems) - $10,000 from Safer Families for Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee (MO Senate GOP) - $10,000 from Cigna Holding Company.
Gladius PAC - $25,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Committee to Elect David Johnson - $6,000 from David Johnson.
Friends Of Kip Kendrick - $6,000 from Kip Kendrick.
Hayden for Circuit Judge - $8,000 from Kenny Hayden.
Committee to Elect Matt Major - $10,000 from Major Enterprises.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Tom Krewson, Darrell Pollock, and Bob Quinn.
Sunday: Claire McCaskill, Jean Evans, Jim Lembke, Besty AuBuchon, Kim Tuttle, and Kevin Threlkeld.