MOScout Daily Update: Carter Leads Senate 10 - Black Ahead in 12 - Long Predicts Schmitt to Win - New Pro-Hartzler Ad - RightPath $$$ Hit Brown and more...
MOScout/Remington Senate 10 Poll
Survey conducted July 22 through July 25, 2022. 314 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Senate District 10 are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Joshua Price: 8%
Bryan Spencer: 10%
Travis Fitzwater: 18%
Jeff Porter: 10%
Mike (Michael) Carter: 28%
Undecided: 25%
Q2: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Auditor are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
David Gregory: 17%
Scott Fitzpatrick: 38%
Undecided: 45%
Q3: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for US Senate are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 32%
Billy Long: 5%
Eric Greitens: 18%
Vicky Hartzler: 22%
Mark McCloskey: 5%
Dave Schatz: 2%
Someone else: 7%
Undecided: 9%
Q4: When you cast your ballot do you tend to vote for the candidate with the strongest moral character or the candidate with the best policy positions?
Moral character: 32%
Policy positions: 40%
Not sure: 28%
MOScout/Remington Senate 12 Poll
Survey conducted July 22 through July 24, 2022. 377 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Senate District 12 are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Delus Johnson: 8%
J. Eggleston: 24%
Rusty Black: 43%
Undecided: 25%
Q2: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Auditor are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
David Gregory: 15%
Scott Fitzpatrick: 30%
Undecided: 55%
Q3: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for US Senate are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 29%
Billy Long: 5%
Eric Greitens: 19%
Vicky Hartzler: 18%
Mark McCloskey: 6%
Dave Schatz: 3%
Someone else: 5%
Undecided: 15%
Q4: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe are considering running for governor in 2024. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 37%
Mike Kehoe: 15%
Someone else: 9%
Undecided: 39%
8-Day Reports
I updated the 2022 Watch spreadsheet. Find it here. For all state legislative primaries, you can see how much each candidate (and their PAC) reported raising, spending, and their cash on-hand total. As a reminder, these 8-Day Reports cover July 1 – 21. In others words, it’s still a rearview mirror perspective, but the 21st brings us up to last week. A few nuggets I noticed on the reports…
· In Senate 12, Rep. J Eggleston spent close to nothing. It’s hard to believe but his only itemized expenditure was advertising he placed with the Carroll County Chamber of Commerce. The $100,000 he loaned himself at the beginning of the campaign sits – along with a pile of other cash – untouched.
· RightDirection PAC which was funded by a $100K contribution from RightPath PAC spent a little over $50K in opposition to Ben Brown in Senate 26.
First in MOScout: New Hartzler PAC Swings At Schmitt
Secure Our Freedom Action Fund, a pro-Vicky Hartzler PAC, is out with a new ad this morning. See it here.
It’s called “Better Choice,” and hits Eric Schmitt for spending “years selling out Missouri to help communist China,” as well as for having worked across the aisle with Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal. She’s not named in the ad; she’s “a radical Democrat who called for Trump’s assassination."
· The PAC says that “well over 6-figures being spent in the St. Louis media market. The ad will also run statewide on broadcast and cable and be delivered by text message directly to thousands of Republican primary voters across Missouri.”
Politico on Greitens’ Drop
Politico this morning notes Eric Greitens’ drop in the polls, citing both the MOScout/Remington poll, and a recent poll by Trafalgar. Missouri consultants James Harris and Gregg Keller are quoted. Below are a few highlights from the article. Read it here.
· Greitens still working for Trump’s endorsement… Donald Trump Jr. and his fiancée Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Trump aide who serves as an adviser to Greitens’ campaign, have continued in the last week to push for Trump to endorse Greitens, according to two people with knowledge of their efforts.
· Long predicts Schmitt will win… On a Monday morning Columbia talk radio show, Long maintained it would have been “a completely different race” if Trump had endorsed him “early on.” Long conceded there was a longshot of him pulling off a win. He said the momentum appears to be behind Schmitt now. “It looks like it’s his to lose at this point.”
Kunce Gets PD Endorsement
Post-Dispatch endorsed Lucas Kunce over Trudy Busch Valentine. See it here.
The contest among the top Democratic Party primary contenders for U.S. Senate is really no contest at all. Voters heading to the polls next Tuesday should enthusiastically support attorney and Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, who is by far the most agile and well-prepared candidate to take on the uphill challenge of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election… his upbringing in a struggling blue-collar family gives him the ability to talk to rural as well as urban Missourians in ways that his Republican counterparts cannot…
Heritage Foundation Spinoff Comes to Missouri
In the lobbyist registrations (below), you’ll see that Heritage Action is registering. From Wikipedia: Heritage Action for America, more commonly known simply as Heritage Action, is a conservative policy advocacy organization founded in 2010. Heritage Action, which has affiliates throughout the United States, is a sister organization of the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation.
· Here’s the Heritage Action agenda, by the way.
eMailbag: The Spectrum of MOScouter Readers
· It’s amusing to watch the machinations of the crowd who think the Hawley video is anything but a nothing burger. Those who think it to be anything more need a reality check!
· Goes to show you how few people in this state watch the 1/6 Commission hearings. [Trump] incited a riot, then sat gleefully watching the destruction of our nation’s Capitol and the killing of law enforcement officers. All based on a lie because he is too narcissistic to accept that he lost the election.
Lobbyists Registrations
Catherine Gunsalus and Matthew Crouch added Heritage Action for America.
$5K+ Contributions
Ralph Riggs for Presiding Commissioner - $5,600 from Ralph Riggs.
Electrical Workers Voluntary Political Education & Legislative Funds - Missouri - $23,220 from IBEW Local One.
Conservative Leadership for Missouri PAC (pro-Bob Jones) - $20,000 from Greg Hoberock.
St Louis Association of Realtors-PAC - $16,638 from Missouri REALTORS PAC, Inc.
Gannon For Jefferson County - $32,206 from Let’s Go Brandon PAC.
Protect Missouri Freedom - $100,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Citizens for Crystal Quade.
Evergy Employee PowerPAC - Missouri - $10,000 from Evergy Employee PowerPAC – Missouri.
Voices of the People - $25,000 from MO Coalition for Video Lottery PAC.
Page PAC - $10,000 from Roy Pfautch.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Mike McMillan, and Donna Lichtenegger.