MOScout Daily Update: Trent Leads in Senate 20 - KCStar on Greitens' Dark Days - Tracking IE $$$ - Marijuana IP Short Signatures and more...
MOScout/Remington Senate 20 Poll
Survey conducted July 23 through July 26, 2022. 303 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Senate District 20 are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Curtis Trent: 42%
Brian Gelner: 29%
Undecided: 29%
Q2: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Auditor are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
David Gregory: 25%
Scott Fitzpatrick: 40%
Undecided: 35%
Q3: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for US Senate are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 27%
Billy Long: 20%
Eric Greitens: 11%
Vicky Hartzler: 21%
Mark McCloskey: 5%
Dave Schatz: 2%
Someone else: 8%
Undecided: 7%
Q4: Would you consider voting for an Independent candidate for US Senate, if your preferred candidate doesn’t win?
Yes: 42%
No: 31%
Not Sure: 27%
8-Day Reports
I circled back and updated the 8-Day numbers for those who hadn’t filed as of yesterday morning. They’re added in now. Find the spreadsheet. There are still a few folks missing, for example, Mike Carter (and this associated PAC) in Senate 10 hasn’t yet filed an 8-Day Report – as of this morning.
Another US Senate Poll
Emerson released a new US Senate poll which confirmed the latest development – Eric Schmitt in the lead, Eric Greitens falling into the teens, and Vicky Hartzler in between with plenty of undecideds still in limbo. See it here.
And
It’s the first poll I’ve seen of the Democratic side. They have a tight race with Trudy Busch Valentine and Lucas Kunce within the margin of error. That may explain why Valentine has launched a negative attack on Kunce. The attack hits Kunce on positions he espoused when he ran for state representative in 2006. Kunce sent a “cease and desist” letter to Valentine (see it here). Valentine responded with a “nope” (see it here).
Kunce has obviously “evolved” since 2006, but the argument that you can’t use a politician’s previous public statements in a political ad is incomprehensible.
MoFed for Children IEs
Missouri Federation for Children – a pro-school choice organization – dropped a fresh $55K into House races according to an MEC filing yesterday. Here’s where their independent expenditures went…
· $9,202 supporting Rep. Mitch Boggs running in House 157 (Lawrence County).
· $16,908 supporting Darin Chappell running in House 137 (Springfield).
· $6,774 supporting Brad Christ running in House 96 (South St. Louis County).
· $12,622 supporting Jeff Myers running in House 42 (Warrenton).
· $9,788 supporting Jim Schulte running in House 49 (Holts Summit).
Great Northwest PAC IEs Beyond Northwest
Great Northwest PAC is associated with Rep. Rusty Black and has been active in the Senate 12 race, supporting Black and opposing Rep. J Eggleston and Delus Johnson.
But… it’s also started making independent expenditures in other state senate races…
· $57,960 opposing Rep. John Wiemann in Senate 2.
· $50,000 opposing Brian Gelner in Senate 20.
AFP for Eggleston, Coleman, Trent
Americans for Prosperity are running digital ads in support of several Republican state senate candidates. According to a recent Missouri Ethics Commission filing, here’s who they’re supporting…
· $6,400 supporting Rep. J Eggleston running in Senate 12.
· $5,000 supporting Rep. Curtis Trent running in Senate 20.
· $4,100 supporting Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman running in Senate 22.
KCStar on Greitens Dark Days
Front page of the Kansas City Star today is along article detailing how Eric Greitens filled the months between his resignation as governor and announcing his Senate run. Read it here.
The humdingers…
· His friend Gregg Favre, the deputy director of the Missouri Department of Public Safety, had already taken away his gun out of an abundance of caution…
· Immediately after Greitens’ resignation became official, the former first couple of Missouri retreated with their two sons to their six-bedroom, four-bathroom home in Innsbrook to embark on two days of intensive therapy. They brought in a marriage therapist from Louisville, Kentucky… Sheena emailed the therapist, saying she was concerned about her safety…
· In emails to her lawyer in 2018, Sheena Greitens expressed concern about $2 million Greitens had racked up in legal bills with Dowd Bennett defending himself against his indictment for invasion of privacy in St. Louis. The firm does not appear on Greitens campaign expenses…
· In late April 2020, Greitens paid $10,000 to StatusLabs, a company that advertises its ability to bury unfavorable search results about people… He paid them another $20,000 that September….
· The Kansas City Star’s reporting shows that if Greitens learned any lessons in his time out of the public eye, it appears he learned just one — deny. Deny forcefully…
Legalization Short on Signatures
Missouri Independent reports that the campaign to put full marijuana legalization on the November ballot lacks the necessary signatures. “Reports from almost every county in the state, delivered to Secretary of State John Ashcroft’s office, show the petition is short of its goal in two of the six congressional districts needed to qualify for the ballot. It is 1,573 signatures short in the 6th Congressional District, which runs from Kansas City to the Iowa border, and 1,144 signatures short in the 7th Congressional District in southwest Missouri around Springfield and Joplin… The figures are unofficial and subject to amendment until the final Aug. 9 deadline for Ashcroft to determine whether the campaign succeeded or not, spokeswoman Madison Walker wrote in an email to The Independent.”
· The irony here is that just as Steven Tilley is ramping up fundraising for Ashcroft’s 2024 gubernatorial bid, Ashcroft’s office is handing Tilley a big disappointment on the marijuana expansion front.
Forrester Retires
Daily American News has a nice article on Reid Forrester who was just replace on the Labor and Industrial Relations Commission by Kathy Swan. See it here.
After 40 years of service to his community and state, Labor and Industrial Relations Commissioner Reid Forrester is returning home to Poplar Bluff. Forrester has the distinction of being commissioned by three Missouri Governors, staying above the fray as the politics of America became more and more divisive…
In 2005, Forrester was appointed to the Missouri Board of Probation and Parole by Gov. Matt Blunt… In 2014, Forrester began working for Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, rising to the position of Chief of Staff… In January of 2017, Forrester took on the legislative responsibilities for the Department of Labor… Since May 2018, Forrester has served as a commissioner on the Labor and Industrial Relations Commission and most recently appointed by Gov. Mike Parson to serve as chairman.
Lobbyists Registrations
Zach Pollock added Pollock Consulting LLC, Wasser and Associates LLC, and Midwest Natural Fiber.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Charter Communications.
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $25,000 from Missouri Federation for Children PAC.
417 PAC - $50,000 from Gladius PAC.
1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $7,500 from Air Comfort Service Heating and Cooling.
Great Northwest PAC (pro-Black) - $88,000 from Missouri Alliance for Freedom - Grace River PAC.
Great Northwest PAC - $88,000 from American Democracy Alliance.
JB PAC (pro-Justin Brown) - $5,500 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Let's Go Brandon PAC (anti-Wieland) - $30,000 from Herzog Contracting Corporation.
Aegis PAC - $32,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Gannon For Jefferson County - $34,049 from Let’s Go Brandon PAC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $8,000 from Illicit Gardens.
Missourians for Life - $10,000 from Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC.
The Good Government Committee - $10,000 from Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Lacy Clay, Shanon Hawk, Jack Gamble, Crystal Brinkley, and Jim Avery.