MOScout Daily Update: TIGHT Senate 26 Race - Mail Chaos Hits Campaigns - Following the $$$ - Jones Endorses Valentine (and Clarifies) and more...
MOScout/Remington Senate 26 Poll
Survey conducted July 24 through July 27, 2022. 309 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Senate District 26 are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Nate Tate: 23%
Ben Brown: 18%
Bob Jones: 22%
Merry-Noella Skaggs: 4%
Jason Franklin: 1%
Undecided: 32%
Q2: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for Missouri State Auditor are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
David Gregory: 13%
Scott Fitzpatrick: 38%
Undecided: 49%
Q3: The candidates in the August 2nd GOP Primary for US Senate are _: If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 38%
Billy Long: 3%
Eric Greitens: 14%
Vicky Hartzler: 13%
Mark McCloskey: 7%
Dave Schatz: 12%
Someone else: 6%
Undecided: 7%
Q4: What is the greatest threat to America?
Left wing groups like Antifa: 17%
Right wing groups like Proud Boys: 12%
Communist countries like Russia or China: 33%
Radical Islamic terrorists: 4%
Not sure: 33%
Campaigns Deal Mail Uncertainty
From the eMissourians: People expecting to mail or receive parcels by the U.S. Post Service (USPS) in the St. Louis area may expect delays after the Market Street distribution center in Downtown St. Louis experienced an emergency Tuesday morning. The St. Louis Fire Department (STLFD) was dispatched before 5 a.m. to the 1700 block of Market Street, according to a post on the department’s social media pages. It reported that Engine 2 was the first on the scene of smoke in the basement.
What It Means
· Campaigns plot out their mail pieces with precision. This is a major disruption to their voter contact plans and their final appeal to voters.
· This could impact several Republican state primaries: Senate 2 (St. Charles), Senate 22 (Jefferson County), Senate 26 (Franklin County) and Senate 10 (Wentzville).
· This favors the candidates in the lead, and those with a robust ground game.
Money Trails
· In Senate 2, Rep. John Wiemann received more money from organized labor. The Carpenters previously had sent his PAC $100K. In the large contributions (below), they add $50K to that as well as $10K from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
· Also in Senate 2, the pro-Nick Schroer PAC, 1776 PAC, sent $8,000 to the Missouri Right to Life PAC, which turned around and made an independent expenditure on behalf of the Schroer campaign spending $7,820 on the mailer. Schroer is the only MRL endorsed candidate in that race.
· In Senate 10, the pro-Mike Carter PAC, Shield PAC, filed its 8-Day Report yesterday. It reports that in the first three weeks of July, it sat on its war-chest, spending just $271. It has $333K in its cash on-hand. There’s been no reported independent expenditures from the PAC so, they must have decided that Carter has the race in the bag and they’re not spending money. Carter, by the way, is the only senate candidate on my spreadsheet hasn’t filed his candidate committee’s 8-Day Report yet.
· I noted yesterday that the pro-Rusty Black PAC, Great Northwest PAC, has been spreading its money around to other senate primaries. Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman’s PAC, Conservative Solutions PAC, is the most recent recipient, getting a $55K check.
· And also in Senate 22, Jeff Roorda says the Carpenters and Laborers have been active in his race. See examples of their independent expenditures here.
· Rep. Michael Burton finally filed his 8-Day report and showed just $975 spent, after a “limited activity” July report. The filing does nothing to change my opinion that challenger Kenny Edgar will win that race.
Jones Endorses Valentine
Mayor Tishaura Jones endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine for US Senate. See the endorsement here.
But then hours later, the mayor “clarified” her endorsement with a series of tweets.
After speaking with someone who I respect immensely, I am clarifying my endorsement of @buschvalentine. I don’t condone the words she used about the LGBT+ community, however, I think this is a learning experience for all of us. Trudy and I aren’t exactly at the same place on trans rights but here’s what I know. She believes kids should have gender affirming care and that permanent procedures should happen once they are adults. I am more liberal and support trans children in being their authentic selves… I think we have to stop electing the same old people to office in Missouri. We’ve done the attorney, male-dominated thing for so long and have seen little change… I believe [Valentine] when she says she will put people first...
Five Days…
Five days until Election Day, and the much-ballyhooed Donald Trump endorsement is still under warps or perhaps not even coming.
· The anti-Greitens crowd hopes that his ebbing poll numbers will dissuade Trump from giving Eric Greitens a late boost with an endorsement.
· Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler is already out of the running.
· Congressman Billy Long recently met with Trump, but is presumed to be too far back in the polls to get Trump’s nod.
· And while AG Eric Schmitt would love to have Trump’s endorsement, with his lead in the polls, he’s probably quite content if Trump ultimately sits on his hands.
We’ll see…
$5K+ Contributions
JB PAC (pro-Justin Brown) - $7,500 from Charter Communications.
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (pro-Coleman) - $55,000 from Great Northwest PAC.
JW Leadership Fund (pro-Wiemann) - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
JW Leadership Fund - $10,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $8,000 from 1776 PAC.
life and liberty mo pac - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC.
MIC PAC - $15,000 from Reinsurance Group of America Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Dale Ludwig and Gary Otten.