MOScout Daily Update: Senate 2 Poll - Brattin Ad - Schmitt Ad - Steinhoff Recovering - Special Talk and more...
New Ads
In CD-4 Sen. Rick Brattin starts running his television commercial today in the Springfield market. See it here. It starts with Brattin’s Marine experience, and says he took an oath to defend the constitution which Brattin adds, “still hasn’t expired.” Then Brattin works with guns in the back of a pick-up truck while talking about the various troubles in the country: CRT, riots, and sanctuary cities.
· Tag line: I’m Rick Brattin. I took an oath to God and the constitution.
Brattin and Kalena Bruce are the only two candidates currently running broadcast TV. Mark Alford is expected to start soon.
But…
Are gun ads passe? Have they been overdone? And no longer give the impact you need? That seems to be the thought from Team Schmitt. They went with a blowtorch in their latest ad. See it here.
Public Opinion Strategies Senate 2 Poll
A tipster passed along this poll from Patrick Lanne’s Public Opinion Strategies. He’s worked for HRCC and other MO GOP candidates over the years. It’s a Senate 2 poll which shows Rep. Nick Schroer with a lead over Rep. John Wiemann 36% to 18%. Still lots of undecideds, and the poll is relatively small with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%.
Schroer Fav/UnFav/Never Heard – 24/5/44
Wiemann Fav/UnFav/Never Heard – 11/4/71
Onder Fav/UnFav/Never Heard – 39/13/19
Trump Fav/UnFav/Never Heard – 62/30/0
If the Republican primary election for STATE SENATOR were being held TODAY for whom would you vote between: Nick Schroer ...AND... John Wiemann
18% DEFINITELY SCHROER
18% PROBABLY SCHROER
9% DEFINITELY WIEMANN
9% PROBABLY WIEMANN
44% HARD UNDECIDED
2% REFUSED
36% TOTAL SCHROER
18% TOTAL WIEMANN
They also polled the US Senate race – again just in the Senate 2 area, but it’s interesting. Schmitt is running ahead of Greitens in St. Charles (take again with the caveat of the large MoE), and Hartzler is pretty far behind. It seems Hartzler is running more of an outstate campaign at this point. We’ll see if that changes in this final week.
Next, if the Republican primary for US SENATE were being held TODAY for whom would you
vote between:
28% Eric Schmitt
22% Eric Greitens
10% Vicky Hartzler
6% Mark McCloskey
5% Dave Schatz
1% Billy Long
10% Other candidates
18% HARD UNDECIDED
Special Session Talk
· One lobbyist tells me there’s no way the governor would call a special session while the House chamber is in reconstruction. That would just tick off all the members he needs. He sees it happening over Veto Session.
· But another House source wonders if some of the gov’s vetoes might be vulnerable given termed legislators might not feel beholden to the second floor: Seriously, did anyone in the Governor’s office do the math on veto session versus a Special? Once the primary is over is it easier to override a veto or pass an entirely new policy that termed out/did not win members will support!?! Someone in the Gov’s office should have called Ward Franz about skipping out on a vote after losing a primary. Oh wait, why would Ward pick up a call from his former boss?
Steinhoff Recovering
Future Rep. Kathy Steinhoff recounts on Twitter a health scare. Steinhoff is unopposed in both the primary and general election in Columbia’s House 45 district.
This month has been a whirlwind. I finished a challenging school year, retired from teaching after 34 years, attended NEA campaign training in DC, & joined 27 family members on a vacation to WI. My plan was to return & participate in a rigorous & fun campaign.
However, on the third day of the vacation I was rushed to the ER. They found bacteria in my blood that damaged my heart & was causing clots. I am grateful to the incredible nurses & doctors in Wausau, WI who saved my life. They performed open heart surgery.
After 2 weeks in the hospital (including a birthday stay), I am finally home & geared up for a slow recovery. I thought I’d be knocking on hundreds of doors, giving speeches, & meeting neighbors, but now I am only trying to walk on my own, & have to limit visitors
I hope you understand, I will be postponing several of my events for now. I am optimistic I will feel better in early fall & welcome positive thoughts & prayers. After surgery someone asked me if I wanted to give up this opportunity to be State Representative. Absolutely not.
Moves
· Former Chair of the Public Service Commission Kevin Gunn announced on social media… Some professional news: After more about 8.5 years on my own, I was given the opportunity to join NextEra Energy Resources as the Executive Director for Regulatory and Political Affairs for the Central Region. I’ll have a team coving 14 states in the Midwest. I'll still be based in St. Louis (although NextEra is based in Jun Beach, Florida, very close to the Cardinals' Spring Training!)…
· Former Sen. Will Kraus writes that “Today, after more than 17 years, my public service at the state level is coming to an end. I have enjoyed serving our community and our state as an elected State Representative, State Senator and as a State Tax Commissioner… Many people have asked, why did a small government, fiscal conservative stay in government for over 17 years? The answer is very simple, the best way to change a broken system is from the inside…” [Debbi McGinnis, former Collector of Revenue of Polk County takes Kraus’ spot on the commission].
Lobbyists Registrations
Brent Hemphill and Liz Henderson deleted US Term Limits.
$5K+ Contributions
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $25,000 from Mo Coalition for Video Lottery PAC.
Jackson County Leadership PAC (pro-Cierpiot) - $5,500 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $12,600 from SW Missouri Engineering LLC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from N & R of Springfield East LLC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Senior PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Missouri AG PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Growth PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Missouri C PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from HealthPAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Susan Montee.
Congratulations
To Joe and Emilee Mudd Lakin on the birth of their 4th of July baby, Beau Jacobsen Lakin.