MOScout Weekender: Schmitt, Fitz Lead - Hallway Still Pessimistic About Special - Dogan, Schmitt, Arthur Win Week and more...

Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide

Survey conducted August 24 to August 25, 2022. 1,011 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.

Q1: What is your opinion of Cori Bush?

Favorable: 20%

Unfavorable: 35%

No opinion: 45%

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Parson?

Favorable: 42%

Unfavorable: 35%

No opinion: 23%

Q3: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 51%

Unfavorable: 45%

No opinion: 4%

Q4: What is your opinion of Joe Biden?

Favorable: 37%

Unfavorable: 56%

No opinion: 7%

Q5: The candidates in the November general election for US Senate are: Eric Schmitt, the Republican; Trudy Busch Valentine, the Democrat; Jonathan Dine, the Libertarian; and Paul Venable, the Constitutionalist. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Eric Schmitt: 51%

Trudy Busch Valentine: 40%

Jonathan Dine: 1%

Paul Venable: 1%

Undecided: 7%

Q6: The candidates in the November general election for State auditor are: Scott Fitzpatrick, the Republican; Alan Green, the Democrat; and John A. Hartwig Jr., the Libertarian. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Scott Fitzpatrick: 53%

Alan Green: 35%

John A. Hartwig Jr: 4%

Undecided: 9%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Special Session Sentiment

I asked, “What's the likelihood that Governor Parson's special session is accomplished without major hiccups?”  21 replies.  (Results from July 9 in parathesis to show how sentiments has shifted).

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 0% (9.5%)

2. Somewhat likely… 33.3% (9.5%)

3. Somewhat unlikely… 23.8% (14.3%)

4. Very unlikely… 42.8% (66.7%)

Sample of Comments

·       A tax cut and Ag tax credits will ultimately pass but there are many personalities that will want their moment on a microphone to make it without major hiccups.

·       It's a tax cut - if a Republican supermajority can't get this accomplished, then what's the point of them being in office?

·       Going after either issue is tough but doable in a special. Combining them both together in a special seems like you’re asking for a disaster.

·       Personalities. Those who think the tax cut doesn’t go far enough. Those who think it goes too far. The rural job juggernaut. A lot to go wrong.

·       I chose somewhat unlikely. There may be some kicking and screaming and the final product won’t look exactly like the Governor intends but, in the end, they will pass a tax cut and create/extend the Ag incentives.

·       If the boy senators get their feelings hurt, it won't go well.

·       Never bet on things going smoothly in the MO Legislature, special session or otherwise

·       Too many Senators with nothing to lose.

·       There will be major hiccups. But it’s possible they could accomplish something. On the other hand, overriding his veto on ag tax credits and then going home seems like the obvious path.

Who Won the Week?

Shamed Dogan – He’s rumored to be the Republican County Executive candidate after all.  With upset victor Katherine Pinner dropping out, Dogan – and his $200K war-chest – is the obvious choice to pick up the banner.

Eric Schmitt – The exit of John Wood removes the one wildcard which could created divisions about Republican ranks.

Lauren Arthur – Pretty much anytime a state senator has the governor from the opposing party tweeting at you, you come away the winner.  More so when get the better of the exchange.

Cops – They went all-in to prevent Gary Wiegert from getting the nomination in House 101 and prevailed.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Legal Missouri 2022 - $106,750 from Midwest Roots LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Cigna (Washington DC).

Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $10,000 from Cigna Holding Company.

Missouri United - $10,000 from Cigna Holding Company.

Friends for Eric Holmes - $20,000 from Eric Holmes.

Hruza for Missouri - $12,000 from George Hruza.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Scott Swain, Kit Crancer, Tom Flanigan, Jefferson Thomas, and Garry Olson.

Sunday: Rep. Shamed Dogan, John Diehl, and Percy Green II.