MOScout Weekender: Trump v DeSantis - Statewide MO GOP Poll - Lincoln Days Bits - Hallway Loves Fitzwater - WWTW and more...
Lincoln Days Bits
· Carrie Almond confirmed that she’s considering running for a statewide office. It sounds like LG, but she said definitively that it won’t be Treasurer. Although she was on the short list and had good interview with the governor, she says that Treasurer Vivek Malek has her respect and support.
· John Russell, Green County Commissioner, had one of the big banners hanging in the foyer. No word where his campaign would seem to be headed.
· Senate Pro Tem Caleb Rowden and Speaker Dean Plocher share a consultant and seemed to be tag-teaming the weekend. They were together in an afternoon pow-wow with Springfield movers and shakers, they co-hosted the social hour before the banquet, and they shared a hospitality suite. Forget about 2024, this is good news for House-Senate relations this session.
· One interesting sighting… George Hruza, who lost to Tracy McCreery for Senate 24. He’s expected to run for Plocher’s House seat in 2024, but as one Republican noted: the dude dropped $1M into a state senate race, who’s to say he doesn’t at least look at a statewide run.
· Meanwhile… No presence from Sens. Tony Luetkemeyer or Holly Rehder, or House Budget Chair Cody Smith. One attendee, though, insisted that Smith is serious, that he’s talking to consultants, etc. We’ll see…
Remington/MOScout Poll: GOP Statewide
Survey conducted February 8 through February 9, 2023. 820 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: If the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?
Ron DeSantis: 35%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Donald Trump: 38%
Undecided: 19%
Q2: If the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary were held today, and the candidates were just Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?
Ron DeSantis: 45%
Donald Trump: 38%
Undecided: 17%
Q3: If the 2024 Republican Primary for Governor of Missouri were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 28%
Bill Eigel: 4%
Mike Kehoe: 9%
Undecided: 59%
Q4: If the 2024 Republican Primary for Secretary of State were held today, for whom would you vote?
Caleb Rowden: 6%
Shane Schoeller: 8%
Undecided: 86%
Q5: If the 2024 Republican Primary for State Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote?
Vivek Malek: 6%
Cody Smith: 11%
Undecided: 83%
Q6: If the 2024 Republican Primary for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote?
Andrew Bailey: 10%
Will Scharf: 10%
Undecided: 80%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Future Floor Leader
I asked lobbyists, “Which Senate freshman is most likely to be Floor Leader someday?” 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. Rusty Black… 4%
2. Ben Brown… 0%
3. Jill Carter… 8%
4. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 8%
5. Travis Fitzwater… 60%
6. Nick Schroer… 4%
7. Trent Curtis… 16%
Sample of Comments
· [Fitzwater] Nice guys finish first in the senate
· As the only freshman Rusty will most likely be on a path to Approps chairman. MEC will do well in the senate and has the skills to eventually become floor leader.
· [Carter]As the Senate moves to the right she becomes the middle.
· Fitzwater feels like the natural consensus builder. He’s extremely conservative, but also understands the pragmatic nature of policy making and coalition building.
· [Fitzwater] Can't guarantee he becomes floor leader, but can guarantee he'll win this poll
· MEC is having fun in the Senate and it shows…she’s cut out for the upper chamber and is best fit to work across party and inner-party lines.
· Trent is articulate and politically smart, while being a team player. He can also be trusted with his word, traits valuable for a leadership position.
· [Schroer] More transactional than people realize.
Who Won the Week?
Andrew Bailey – The explosion of coverage about the gender transition whistleblower demonstrated the power of incumbency as Bailey was able to jump into the breaking new and win lots of free press.
Lane Roberts – His tireless work, considerable patience and meticulous attention to taking the temperature of his committee-members paid off as the House passed his high-profile, anti-crime bill.
Phil Christofanelli – The St. Charles rep running to replace Sen. Bill Eigel in Senate 2 announced a fundraiser. The headliner, Corey DeAngelis, is a big deal in education reform circles, and suggests that national groups will invest substantially in his race.
Medical Marijuana Dispensaries – Now serving the general population, they’re seeing their business boom. The recreational use IP is paying off big time.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
21st Century St. Louis PAC - $25,000 from Andrew Taylor.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Doug Richey, Amy Blunt, Elad Gross, Steve Brown, and Don Wells.