MOScout Daily Update: China Balloon - IP Reform Starts at 43% - Hallway Doubts IP Reform Happens and more...
China Balloon Over MO
One lobbyist joked that Republican legislators were “working to outdo one another” in response to the China Spy Balloon floating over Missouri.
· Sen. Nick Schroer called on Governor Mike Parson to mobilize the National Guard and shoot it down.
· Rep. Ben Baker indicated he’d do the shooting himself.
· Meanwhile Democratic state senate candidate Stephen Webber was having none of it... Dude passed on volunteering for his country’s 20 years of war but thinks he looks tough playing dress up with a gun in his backyard like he’s gonna do something GTFO
Tough Week for Bosley
St. Louis Alderman Brandon Bosley, brother of Rep. LaKeySha Bosley, was in the news twice this week. Neither good.
· KSDK: Surveillance video shows St. Louis alderman struck woman with his car… See it here.
· Post-Dispatch: Records point to Lacy Clay and Brandon Bosley in St. Louis corruption scandal… See it here.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Various Issues
Survey conducted February 1 through February 2, 2023. 845 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
There are a handful of proposals offered in the Missouri Legislature. I will read you each proposal, please indicate if you support or oppose.
Q1: Currently it takes a simple majority of Missouri voters to amend the state constitution. One proposal would change that to require 60% approval. Do you Support or oppose this proposal?
Support: 43%
Oppose: 38%
No opinion: 19%
[Q2: DELETED. I miswrote the question.]
Q3: HB 660 would phase out the state’s corporate income tax. Supporters say it would attract more businesses to Missouri. Opponents say it would cost, $700 million over three years, is too unaffordable. Do you support phasing out the state corporate income tax or oppose it?
Support: 25%
Oppose: 57%
No opinion: 18%
Q4: One proposal would change election laws to require a manual audit of random precincts before certifying election results. Do you Support or oppose this proposal?
Support: 46%
Oppose: 36%
No opinion: 18%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: IP Reform
I asked lobbyists, “Do you think "IP reform" will be on the ballot and passed by the voters in 2024?” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Yes, definitely… 0%
2. Yes, probably… 26.1%
3. No probably not… 52.2%
4. No, definitely not… 21.7%
Sample of Comments
· Your questions need to be split. It’s 50/50 whether it will be on the ballot and 90/10 that it will fail.
· Why would voters vote to remove their vote?
· Unless there is a significant funding source behind it. Legislators get tunnel vision and want to reach the finish line with legislation, but the polling on this has to be terrible. Arkansas just defeated the same measure 60-40%.
· I think it will make the ballot but be rejected by voters. The usual MO voter disconnect between voters and policies proposed by the people they elect.
· This idea is the definition of a losing issue. How do you sell to Missourians that they should vote to make it HARDER to change their government! Furthermore, who's going to fund the campaign? There will be $5-15 million spent in opposition of it does go to a vote. Dumb dumb dumb.
· On the ballot? Probably. Passed by the voters? Absolutely not.
· I think it will definitely be on the ballot. I think it may pass depending on what kind of deceptive “candy” they add to it.
· Depending on what the Senate negotiates it could pass on the ballot. That would mean something the Senate passed is reasonable enough all the outside interest groups stand down.
Who Won the Week?
Kansas City – The state revs up for Super Bowl 57 next weekend.
Jon Patterson and Jason Bean – Their legislative effort bears fruit as the initiative to help the 500,000 adults across the state without a high school diploma launched.
Rick Brattin and Greg Razer – The two senators pulled back their respective amendments which could have sunk the broadband grant legislation. It served as a warning shot, but also showed both of them playing the role of statesmen to preserve the Senate’s peace for at least another week.
Bill Stouffer – Finally retiring after a full career of politics and lobbying.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Stacy Hastie.
MO State Teachers Assoc Legislative Impact Co - $7,500 from Central Region – MSTA.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Danny Pfeifer, Heather Grote, Steve Hobbs, Allen Andrews, Teresa Hensley, and Tyler Hobbs.