MOScout Weekender: Wagner $$ - Hewkin in Senate 3 - Malek $$ - GOP Primary Poll - Hallway and WWTW and more....
First in MOScout: Wagner’s Full Throttle Quarter
Congresswoman Ann Wagner will be reporting $740,000 raised in her Q1 filing, and will show more than $2 million cash on-hand.
What It Means
· Despite redistricting making her district more Republican, and no announced Democratic opponent, Wagner isn’t taking anything for granted.
· The stellar fundraising will help put this district firmly out of play.
Hewkin in Senate 3
John Hewkin announced he’ll be running in Senate 3 as a Republican.
From the press release: Hewkin is a local Pharmacist who has been active in his community, including service on the Crawford County R-II School Board, Crawford County Commission, Life Line Pregnancy Care Center, and his Church Financial Boards. “I will run on a conservative, commonsense platform that seeks to protect the unborn, preserve and defend our Constitutional rights, increase transparency in education, promote economic prosperity and hold the government accountable to you the people.”
Behind the Move
· Hewkin is announcing ahead of the St. Francois County Lincoln Days occurring tonight.
· He’s working under the assumption that the current incumbent Sen. Elaine Gannon will not be seeking a second term.
· If Gannon doesn’t run, it’s expected that Rep. Mike Henderson will be a candidate. And Team Hewkin has decided it’s not in their interest to miss a year of getting in front of Republican primary voters.
Malek Wows With First Report
State Treasurer Vivek Malek put up some big numbers as he prepares to fend off a possible primary challenge from House Budget Chair Cody Smith.
Missouri Independent reports Malek raised over $1.2 million. Read it here.
Team Malek notes…
· 99% of donations to Malek for Missouri were from individuals. Malek only received one donation from a PAC, the Indian American Physician Missouri PAC.
· There was not one donation from the Jefferson City “swamp” AKA lobbyists or Jefferson City based trade association.
· 50% of Malek’s donors were first time donors. This is a good sign that Malek is bringing new people into the Republican Party.
Remington/MOScout Poll: GOP Statewides
Survey conducted April 11 through April 12, 2023. 778 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Q1: Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for Governor are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 29%
Bill Eigel: 4%
Mike Kehoe: 13%
Undecided: 54%
Q2: Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor are Dean Plocher, Bob Onder, and Holly Thompson Rehder. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Dean Plocher: 11%
Bob Onder: 13%
Holly Thompson Rehder: 16%
Undecided: 60%
Q3: Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for Secretary of State are Denny Hoskins, Caleb Rowden, and Shane Schoeller. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Denny Hoskins: 14%
Caleb Rowden: 13%
Shane Schoeller: 10%
Undecided: 63%
Q4: Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for Secretary of State are Vivek Malek and Cody Smith. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Vivek Malek: 10%
Cody Smith: 21%
Undecided: 69%
Q5: Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for Attorney General are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Andrew Bailey: 24%
Will Scharf: 14%
Undecided: 62%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Tough Issues In Final Stretch
I asked lobbyists which issue had the best chance of passing this session. 21 replies… [Results from same questions asked in February in parathesis.]
RESULTS
1. Initiative petition reform… 42.8% [20.8%]
2. Open enrollment… 23.8% [33.3%]
3. Sports betting… 0% [12.5%]
4. St Louis Police takeover… 33.3% [33.3%]
Sample of Comments
· Still say IP. It’s not that it’s not a sticky issue but it’s maybe the least sticky.
· [STL Police takeover] Democrats would be wise to give it back to the state. Otherwise, they own the horrendous crime rate.
· None of the above
· Bass Pro should sell IP reform. It’s the best bait in the history of Missouri.
· I’m really thinking none of these, but that wasn’t a choice…
· Both Plocher and O’Laughlin want IP reform. They will get it done. This is the way.
· [IP reform] Plocher will finally muscle it through.
Who Won the Week?
Lauren Arthur – Showed she wouldn’t get pushed around on the Senate floor. But did it with her characteristic class.
Vivek Malek – Puts up very strong first fundraising quarter for a political newcomer, and surprise surprise: his contributions are largely from regular folks.
Will Scharf – Pulling down the endorsement of the influential Club for Growth PAC will likely mean some hard-hitting TV ads on his behalf come 2024.
Stephen Webber – Continues to run a textbook campaign to join the state senate in 2024.
Peter Merideth – His inquiry of Sen. Mike Moon goes viral, and forces Moon to make a “let me explain” video.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Citizens To Elect Sharon Tyus - $10,000 from Sharon Tyus.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to David Wood, Leonard Hughes, and Scott Muschany.
Sunday: Matt Dameron, Stephanie Willis, Shane Cohn, and David Richardson.