MOScout Daily Update: Osete for Judge - Hallway Wary About Next Session - Fav/UnFav Poll - WWTW and more...
Osete Launches Judicial Campaign
Jesus Osete, who previously served as general counsel under Jay Ashcroft, and deputy solicitor general under Eric Schmitt, has launched a campaign for Circuit Judge in Boone County’s 13th Judicial Circuit.
See his campaign website here.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Fav/Unfavs
Survey conducted September 13 through September 14, 2023. 732 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: What is your opinion of Missouri Right to Life?
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 32%
No Opinion: 20%
Q2: What is your opinion of Missouri for Life?
Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 26%
No Opinion: 33%
Q3: What is your opinion of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 38%
No Opinion: 13%
Q4: What is your opinion of the Missouri Firearms Coalition?
Favorable: 37%
Unfavorable: 29%
No Opinion: 34%
Q5: What is your opinion of the Missouri Farm Bureau?
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 11%
No Opinion: 40%
Q6: What is your opinion of the Missouri Cattlemen’s Association?
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 10%
No Opinion: 44%
Q7: What is your opinion of the Missouri National Education Association?
Favorable: 33%
Unfavorable: 42%
No Opinion: 25%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Next Session Pessimism
I asked lobbyists, “What's your forecast for next legislative session?” 19 replies…
RESULTS
1. More constructive, less combative than last year… 10.5%
2. About the same as last year… 36.8%
3. More combative, less constructive than last year…52.6%
Sample of Comments
· Same people, same result.
· A perfect storm - Presidential, Gubernatorial and all statewide elections but the Auditor. Every House member and half of the Senate are running, with both sides dealing with challenges to incumbents. If you thought last year was bad, buckle up and hold on!
· Election years are always good years to get the small things done. This one might be different though with so many running for office.
· Speaker of the House and 5 senators running statewide? Preparing for the ultimate shit show.
· Hard to imagine a less constructive year than last year, but I think that's where we're headed. That said, it's probably a good thing that this group of savants isn't able to come together and enact too many of their plots and plans.
· Low low low expectations
· Eigel will do his best to get headlines and draw attention to his fledgling campaign. Mike Moon can’t help himself, and any R’s facing primary challengers will try to prove that they are the “True Conservative” in their race. Low expectations for 2024 Session.
· All signs would indicate everything will blow up and be less productive in an election year with an already fractured senate. For that reason, I’m going to guess the exact opposite will happen and we get surprised with a reasonable and productive session.
Go Fund Me: Kelley Ogletree
The daughter of lobbyist Kelley Ogletree was in a terrible car accident. A GoFundMe has been set up. See and donate here.
Who Won the Week?
Maggie Nurrenbern – Gets an extended head start in her state senate campaign as her Republican opponent drops out.
Lincoln Hough – Landed the quote of the week: “They talk about a bloated, wasteful, overspent state budget and then they call and say, ‘Hey, can we override and spend some more money?’” Hough said. “And I tell them, ‘wait a minute, aren’t you the same guys that have been on the radio all summer, calling me all sorts of names?’”
Kurtis Gregory – Dodged a bullet with ruling that the state senate maps will stay the same. Some thought a new map could combined Clay and Platte Counties, tilting the district toward Gregory’s rival Rep. Doug Richey.
Women in Robes – With Governor Parson’s Supreme Court appointment of Kelly Broniec, women now have a majority on the state’s highest court. Will they keep it? Depends on who replaces Patricia Breckridge next month.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced five appointments...
· Phyllis Chase and Stuart Rogers were appointed to the University of Central Missouri Board of Governors.
· Susan Eickhoff was appointed to the Missouri State Board of Accountancy.
· Michael Seibert was appointed to the Missouri Southern State University Board of Governors.
· Kevin Spaulding was appointed to the Missouri Gaming Commission.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from ACEC Missouri PAC
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from HNTB Missouri PAC.
American Dream PAC - $6,325 from Dave Sinclair Ford, Inc.
Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenbern) - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).
Missouri Gaming PAC - $26,365 from Penn Entertainment Inc (Wyomissing, PA).
Missouri Gaming PAC - $20,000 from Boyd Gaming Corp (Las Vegas, NV).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Cheyenne International LLC (Grover, NC).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Cheyenne International LLC.
theLOUpac - $25,000 from Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.
HBS MO State PAC - $30,000 from Husch Blackwell Strategies.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Paul Mouton, Sarah Schlemeier Henke, Joan Bray, Karen Mohan Day, Jim Kottmeyer, and Nicole Brown.
Sunday: Governor Mike Parson, Rep. Travis Smith, Tim Van Zandt, Margaret Kelly, Bill Webster, Ryan Burke, and Tom McDonald.