MOScout Daily Update: Smith Reverses on Senate 33 - Lipke in Senate 27? - Hurlbert Drafted into Senate 17 - ProChoice IP Coming and a lot more....

BREAKING… Smith Reverses Course on Senate 33

Later today, Rep. Travis Smith will announce for Senate 33.  This is a reversal from his decision weeks ago to cede the race to Rep. Brad Hudson.  Senate 33 is an open seat, as Sen. Karla Eslinger has opted to become the next Commissioner of Education rather than run for re-election.

·       Smith is getting a late start; his campaign committee showed just $6,578 on-hand in its most recent filing compared to Hudson’s $95K.

·       But Smith represents a big chunk of the district, including Taney and some of Stone County where a majority of the voters live.  He also has ties to Howell County, and his office-mate Rep. Chris Dinkins may help introduce him to Shannon County voters.  Plus, he’s probably favored by incumbent Eslinger whose PAC is sitting on nearly $160K.

·       Hudson, meanwhile, is part of the Freedom Caucus which will be messaging right-side runs in most Senate Republican primaries (see below).

Hurlbert Also Reverses Course In Senate 17

Meanwhile, over in Senate 17, Republicans are returning to Victor Hurlbert as their best candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern.  Democratic incumbent Sen. Lauren Arthur is term-limited.

A parade of Republican officials signed a letter asking to “draft” Hurlbert back into the race.  Hurlbert dropped out back in September, citing a lack of support from Republicans.  It appears he’ll be back.  Some of the GOPers signing: Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, Reps. Bill Allen, Chris Brown, Josh Hurlbert, Chris Lonsdale, and Doug Richey, and former Reps. Kevin Corlew, Nick King, Bob Nance, and Jerry Nolte.

His unwavering dedication to faith, family, and our county's prosperity—combined with his military service—demonstrates his commitment to putting ethics above personal gain. We wholeheartedly endorse Victor Hurlbert for State Senate and urge all who share our values to support his candidacy. Together, let us unite our voices in declaring that Victor Hurlbert is the best choice to represent us in the Missouri State Senate!

Why It Matters

This is a tough district for Republicans to win, but by forcing Dems to use resources here, it will aid GOP efforts in other districts in November.

Rumorville: Lipke Looking At Enter Senate 27

Judge Scott Lipke is said to be likely to enter the Senate 27 Republican primary.  He would join Reps. Jamie Burger, Chris Dinkins, and Jacob Turner.  The Republican incumbent, Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder, is running for lieutenant governor.

·       Lipke was a state representative from 2003 to 2011.  He’s now a circuit judge for the 32nd Judicial Circuit Court.

·       He’d be “the Cape candidate,” although Turner can lay some claim to that mantle, and Burger has business ties to Cape Girardeau as well.

MOIndy: Pro-Choice IP To Start Signature Collection

Missouri Independent reports this morning that Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a coalition including Abortion Action Missouri, the ACLU of Missouri and Planned Parenthood affiliates in Kansas City and St. Louis, will begin collecting signatures for a pro-choice initiative petition.

·       The IP will legalize abortion until the time of fetal viability.

·       They expect to raise $5 million for the signature collection.

What It Means

·       First, it will be a struggle to get enough signatures by the May deadline.  Their time is so crunched that it would be hard under normal circumstances.  But if another Artic blast comes and steals another week or two, it could be fatal to the effort.

·       Regardless, this will light a fire under Republicans to pass initiative petition “reform” this session.

·       Finally, this is great news for Dems.  It’s a rallying issue for them.  It should energize their base, and remind their suburban voters what they’re fighting for.

Freedom Slate Coming?

The Freedom Caucus, in addition to having candidates in most statewide race, appears to be slotting in candidate in most Senate Republican primaries…

·       Senate 21: Doug Richey

·       Senate 23: Adam Schnelting

·       Senate 27: Jacob Turner (not official member, but appears to be getting backing)

·       Senate 29: Mike Moon (not official member)

·       Senate 31: Rick Brattin

·       Senate 33: Brad Hudson

Why It Matters

·       There’s some talk of a coordinated door-knocking campaign. I’m not sure that happens, but I think we could see some contrasting literature pieces as we saw two years ago.

·       It appears that the Senate Republican fractured majority won’t disappear once certain senators are term-limited.  This division will be a feature for the foreseeable future.

MRL Refuses to Win

The Senate Appropriations hearing on the renewal of the FRA tax brought some head-scratching comments from Missouri Right to Life.

To the bafflement of senators, MRL’s Susan Klein insisted that attaching pro-life language to the tax was necessary despite abortions being illegal now in Missouri, and that it could risk Medicaid funding. 

Then, Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer asked if she would support a clean FRA renewal if the legislature passed (and the governor signed) a stand-alone bill with the pro-life language.  She’s wouldn’t say that having the language in law would change her position!?

·       It’s almost like the language isn’t the issue, but creating an issue is the issue. 

Quade Endorsements

Minority Leader Crystal Quade unveiled endorsements from St. Louis County Council Councilwomen Shalonda Webb, Rita Heard Days, Kelli Dunaway, and Lisa Clancy.

Quade’s endorsements, these are just the latest, show that she’s the establishment Democratic candidate in her quest to become governor.

What It Means

·       Between Quade’s demographic advantage of being a woman in a Democratic primary, and having the backing of pro-choice and labor groups, it won’t be easy for her opponent, businessman Mike Hamra, to wrest the nomination from her.

·       One guestimate is that Hamra needs to add another $2 million to his campaign to win the primary.  The general is another story…

Ashcroft’s College Daze

Politico’s Dan Lippman reports that “Jay Ashcroft was effectively kicked out of the Merchant Marine Academy for poor academic performance, his campaign told me.”

Lippman quotes Team Kehoe (Rich Chrismer, and Mike Hafner) saying that the issue is fair game for their campaign to use.

Ashcroft: “I have used this humbling experience from my teenage years as a motivator to give my best effort moving forward.”

·       Will the admission inoculate Ashcroft against expected attacks on the issue?

·       Do people care that 50-year-old man partied too much in college?  I’m skeptical.  But I think Mike Kehoe’s line of attack will be part of a broader narrative: Kehoe worked hard for his American Dream; Ashcroft was born into his.

Kehoe Hearts Trump

I missed this from the other day.  Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe getting his picture with Donald Trump…

Deal, McDonald to HBS

Press release: Husch Blackwell Strategies announced today it has established a new public affairs consultancy within the firm with two long-time industry executives, Marianna Deal and Kirsty McDonald, leading the practice…  

·       Marianna recently served as senior communications advisor to a U.S Senator and earlier as Communications Director when he served as a state Attorney General…

·       Kirsty has managed her own strategic communications consulting business and held senior communications and advocacy roles at companies including Cigna, Centene Corporation, Peabody Energy and EY…

·       HBS Public Affairs will offer clients, Crisis and Issues Communications; Change Communications; Corporate and Executive Positioning; Employee Engagement; Sustainability and ESG; and Transaction Communications…

Help Wanted

Enterprise seeks Government & Public Affairs Coordinator. “This position also coordinates legislative and political activities, as well as meetings and events. The Government & Public Affairs Coordinator conducts political and legislative research, creating written reports while building/tracking spreadsheets… Compensation decisions will be made based on factors that include, but are not limited to experience, education, location and skill level…”  See the posting here.

Lobbyist Registrations

Gamble & Schlemeier added Lion Health System.

Richard McIntosh added Celonis, Inc.   

Mike Talboy added KC Realtors Association.

Venessa Ann Wellbery added Advocates of Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Shawn Rhoads, Robert Knodell, Bill Lant, Carl Bearden, and Bob May.