MOScout Daily Update: Senate Sickness - Trump Contra Roe - Pro-Choice Campaign Raises Over $1M - Burly's $400K and more...

IMPORTANT ADMINISTRATIVE UPDATE

The MOScout website will be down tomorrow, Saturday.

As a result, The Weekender (Weekly Poll, Hallway Index, Who Won the Week) will be published on Sunday morning (and there will be no Sunday6 this week).

·       This is the first step in a series of upgrades and small additions to the website I’ll be rolling out in the next few months.

Senate Spins, Sputters, Stalls

Most people came into this legislative session with low expectations.  After yesterday, I’m not sure they were low enough.

It was supposed to be a routine Thursday Senate session with the approval of a slew of gubernatorial appointments. It was not.  The Freedom Caucus seized control of the floor.  They insisted that no appointments would be confirmed until the Senate passed initiative petition reform.

IP reform has gained urgency: Republicans want to change the threshold before a potential pro-choice IP hits the voting booth later this year. 

Democrats will likely filibuster that effort.  So, Floor Leader Cindy O’Laughlin expects she’ll need to PQ it (shut down debate), a rare procedural motion in the Senate.  Because the PQ usually results in the Democrats shutting down the Senate, O’Laughlin planned on this occurring in the final week, rendering only a few days useless.

The Freedom Caucus wishes to be the Floor Leader.  They want IP reform passed now.  Yesterday they created a choice for leadership: Dems filibustering later, or FC filibustering now.

I’m told that Sen. Nick Schroer hustled some shuttle diplomacy throughout the day, and crafted a reasonable compromise: a timeline for referring and voting IP reform out of committee.  However, at some point the struggle became about power.  It was no longer about the which road to take.  It was, “Jabber all you want as a backseat driver, but get your hands off the steering wheel!”

O’Laughlin views the FC’s actions as those of legislative terrorists, so it’s understandable that she’d be reluctant to reward their behavior by meeting them halfway.  It’s almost a cliché, but you negotiate with terrorists and they’ll just grab more hostages.

After about ten hours later, the Senate adjourned having accomplished nothing.  The motion to approve the appointments was withdrawn and there was no consensus between the two groups how to move forward.

What It Means

·       First, lower your expectations for this session.

·       Second, there’s a serious long-term risk here to the institution of the Senate.  If a minority of senators continually make the body unworkable in its present form, the body will change.  This is how the “Housification” of the Senate happens. 

Trump Contra Roe

Politico reports that Donald Trump is going after Jeff Roe’s rice bowl, telling politicians not to use the consultant. “The admonition against hiring Roe represents an attempt to choke off revenue for his consulting firm, Axiom, in an act of political retribution. Roe was a top strategist for the DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down… The attempt to isolate Roe highlights the lengths to which Trump will go to enforce loyalty — and punish disloyalty — to him within the GOP…”

Obviously, no Republican wants the Trump fatwa issued against them, but veteran Missouri pols will remember that this isn’t the first time Roe has tangled with a King Kong.  In much earlier days of his career, Kit Bond’s displeasure with the younger consultant threatened to blackball his business among MOGOP.

·       The situation does pose a dilemma for Will Scharf.  He’s worked hard to get close to Trump, presumably in hopes of earning an endorsement in his race against AG Andrew Bailey.  Does he cut ties with Axiom, perhaps in some theatric manner, to cement his allegiance to the ruling Republican totem? Or does he stick and let the chips fall where they may?

Burly for Hudson

I wrote yesterday that Sen. Karla Eslinger, who will likely be backing Rep. Travis Smith as her successor in Senate 33, has $160K sitting in her PAC which could be deployed in his primary against Rep. Brad Hudson. 

One pro-Hudson observer notes that Congressman Eric Burlison has endorsed Hudson… AND Burly has about $400K sitting idly in his old Friends of Eric Burlison state candidate committee. (That money appears to be earning <1% in a checking account BTW).

MRL’s Short Memory

There’s good news and bad news for Republican legislators when it comes to earning the Missouri Right to Life endorsement.

·       The bad news: MRL might not care that you voted to outlaw abortions in Missouri.

·       The good news: If you don’t vote as they want on the FRA tax this session, it probably won’t matter in a cycle or two.

Missouri Right to Life has displayed a “what have you done for me lately” attitude in their endorsements. 

·       For example, some Republican statewide candidates have been fuming that, despite consistently voted pro-life, MRL gave a sole endorsement to another candidate based on the congressional map fight, or on writing ballot language.

·       But the flip side, a bad vote can be forgotten.  For example, Sen. Denny Hoskins won the MRL endorsement this year after being out of their good graces for a vote in the House back when MOSIRA was their boogeyman.

Kunce Chugs Along

Lucas Kunce, running for US Senate, against Senator Josh Hawley continues to churn out good news…

·       Team Kunce crows that the $5.4 million they’ve raised this year is the “largest off-year haul for a U.S. Senate challenger in Missouri history.”

·       Today, they’ll announce another big labor endorsement… American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE).

·       And a joint fundraising committee with the Missouri Democratic State Committee was recently formed.

Money Watch

Lots of checks in the large contributions (below)…

·       The PACs for Mike Kehoe and Andrew Bailey each landed $500,000 from benefactors in Minnesota.  WXCLC Inc previously gave $200,000 to Save Missouri Values, the pro-Schmitt PAC which helped puncture Eric Greitens’ numbers in that US Senate primary.

·       Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, the pro-choice IP campaign vehicle, recorded over $1.1 million in checks as they start their signature collection effort.

New Committees

REPACCMO was formed.  It’s a political action committee.  This is the Republican “vetting” organization headed by Cyndia Haggard.  See the paperwork here.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $500,000 from WXCLC Inc. (Minneapolis, MN).

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $500,000 from Mike and Carolyn Rayner (Minneapolis, MN).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $500,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $100,000 from Abortion Action Missouri.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $100,000 from Laura Cohen.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $100,000 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $75,000 from Planned Parenthood Great Plains (Overland Park, KS).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $50,000 from Wendy Roemer (San Diego, CA).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $30,000 from Access MO.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $5,025 from William Coughlin.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $25,000 from Dana Sandweiss.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $25,000 from Kara Newmark.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $25,000 from Karen Handelman.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $25,000 from Diane Levine.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $15,000 from Lisa Carnahan.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $12,000 from Kim Olson.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Steven Miller.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Terry Crow.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Maxine Clark.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Mary Neal.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Amy and Todd Bricker.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $7,500 from Steve Klebe and Lorna Siepser (San Mateo, CA).

ABC Political Action Committee - $7,000 from Gunter Construction.

Missouri Stands With Women, Inc. - $10,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Missouri Stands With Women, Inc. - $10,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from HealthPAC.

Lobbyist Registrations

Henry Albright added Associated Students of the University of Missouri.

Jorgen Schlemeier, David Jackson, Jeffrey Brooks, Nikki Strong, and Sarah Schlemeier added City of Brentwood.     

Joe Bruns added Safer St. Louis LLC.

Kelly Mullins added Pfizer Inc.                     

Irl Scissors added St. Louis Economic Development Partnership.

Jeff Aboussie and Rockne Miller added Lake Economic Alliance for Development.

Jeff Aboussie deleted Building Resources.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Michael Butler, Michele Kratky, and Scott Faughn.

Sunday: Farrah Fite, and the Reverend Carl Gauck.