MOScout Weekender: Another $1M for Pro-Choice IP - Statewide Poll - WWTW and more…
Prayers for Appelbaum
A Note from LaDonna:
I’m writing today to share some news that I never wanted to. Recently my doctors confirmed that my cancer has come back. Please know that I still feel well and am aggressively fighting it! I kicked cancer’s ass in 2014 and intend to do it again now.
Accordingly, I will not be in Jefferson City for the next two weeks while I undergo treatment. I plan to watch the debate on the House floor and in committees from St. Louis. My Legislative Assistant, Ben Murray will remain available to greet visitors in the Capitol and help with any constituent service needs that may arise.
Thank you for your prayers and warm wishes during this time. Tom, Princess Charlotte, King Louie and I are determined to face this challenge together.
Onward!
LaDonna Appelbaum
Pro-Choice IP Adds Another Million to Committee
The Sixteen Thirty Fund kicked in another $1 million to the campaign committee to pass a pro-choice initiative petition.
This puts the large contributions tally over $2 million in just a couple days as the efforts quickly moves into high gear.
MOScout/Remington Poll: Statewide GOP
Survey conducted January 17 through January 18, 2024. 806 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Governor are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 34%
Bill Eigel: 4%
Mike Kehoe: 20%
Undecided: 42%
Q2. The candidates in the Republican primary election for Lieutenant Governor are Tim Baker, Paul Berry, Bob Onder, Dean Plocher, Holly Thompson Rehder. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Tim Baker: 9%
Paul Berry: 5%
Bob Onder: 12%
Dean Plocher: 4%
Holly Thompson Rehder: 18%
Undecided: 52%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Attorney General are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Andrew Bailey: 24%
Will Scharf: 17%
Undecided: 59%
Q4: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Secretary of State are Valentina Gomez, Denny Hoskins, Caleb Rowden, Shane Schoeller and Adam Schwadron. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Valentina Gomez: 7%
Denny Hoskins: 12%
Caleb Rowden: 11%
Shane Schoeller: 6%
Adam Schwadron: 5%
Undecided: 59%
Q5: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Treasurer are Andrew Koenig, Vivek Malek, Lori Rook, and Cody Smith. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Andrew Koenig: 12%
Vivek Malek: 8%
Lori Rook: 13%
Cody Smith: 9%
Undecided: 58%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Tough Issues Ahead
I asked lobbyists, “Which [of these thorny issues] is most likely to pass the legislature this year?” 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. IP reform… 22.7%
2. Open enrollment… 54.5%
3. Sports betting… 4.5%
4. State takeover of police… 18.2%
Sample of Comments
· I don’t think any of these pass
· I put IP, but in reality none. Dumpster fire of a session, might as well as just start planning for special on FRA now.
· None of the above I think we be a more accurate.
· IP will die on ballot, sports betting is stalled because of IP on ballot, and state control won’t change anything. Open enrollment is the only realistic option with actual impact.
· Nothing at this point seems "likely" to pass.
Who Won the Week?
Democrats – Energized by a suddenly activated pro-choice IP, plus Republican-on-Republican violence in the Senate.
Mike Kehoe – Extends his money lead in the gubernatorial race, plus the latest Remington/MOScout poll shows him inching up.
Stephen Webber – Topped every other state senate candidate in fundraising and all of statewide candidates as well, plus no serious Republican challenger yet.
Andrew Bailey – Landed a $500K check this week, plus a ray of hope that Scharf’s Axiom connection will derail his Trump courtship.
Popcorn sellers – Between the Senate drama and the ever-widening fields in the Republican state senate primaries, it’s prime time to be a political junkie in Missouri.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $1,000,000 from Sixteen Thirty Fund (Washington, DC).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $20,000 from Grant Sunderland (Los Angeles, CA).
Missouri Psychiatric Physicians Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Psychiatric Physicians Association.
Citizens for Fowler - $20,000 from Ron Fowler.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $7,500 from Apollo Land Enterprises.