MOScout Daily Update: Why No Big Senate GOP $$$ Lead and What It Means - New Quade Ad - Sign Stealers Viral Video - Bush = Pelosi and more…

GOP – Dem $$$ Parity in Senate Races

In House races the House Republican Campaign Committee has amassed a swollen war-chest and can swamp districts in these final weeks.  But the situation is different for Senate Republicans.  Their money totals trail their Democratic counterparts.  

The Republican’s umbrella committee, Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, had $788,902 cash on-hand in their October report.  Meanwhile the Democratic senators’ campaign committee, Majority Forward, showed $980,983 cash on-hand in their October report.

Additionally, in each of the three targeted races (Senate 11, 15, and 17) the Democratic candidate is in a stronger financial position than their Republican opponent.

There are three reasons aiding the Senate Democrats keeping money parity with the GOP.

·       GOP’s Inward Focus – The emergence of the Conservative Caucus has highlighted the importance of the composition of the Senate Republican Caucus.  As a consequence, the primaries diverted a lot of energy and attention.  Whereas the Democratic candidates were primary-free and kept building their war-chests, the Republicans exhausted them and had to start over for the general election.  Additionally, general election strategizing seemed to be on pause until after the primaries.

·       Lobbyist Give Both Ways – In the Senate, the minority party is much more powerful than the House.  Lobbyists and special interest money is usually split more evenly as opposed to the House where the majority party gets a lopsided share.  Also, many lobbyists see the Dems as a less disruptive force than the Freedom Caucus.  They’re more discerning in their giving, rather than just writing a check to an R.

·       Muted Mega-Donors – The state’s billionaires haven’t exerted the same impact that they have in the past.  David Humphreys has retreated from the political scene.  Rex Sinquefield still gives, but it’s less shock-and-awe since the exit of Travis Brown.  After the death of Stan Herzog, Brad Lager’s approach has been more targeted. And David Steward clearly has the money, but he hasn’t been cultivated to write elephant-sized checks.

What It Means

The lack of abundance of money may lead to some cold-calculated choices in these final weeks.  The talk is that Senate 17 has slipped out of range for Republicans.  One source saying that they’ve heard of a double-digit lead for Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern. 

·       Will Republicans cut Jerry Nolte loose and focus on helping Joe Nicola and David Gregory get across the finish line?

Bush Replaces Pelosi in STL Area

It’s pretty clear that lame duck Congresswoman Cori Bush replaced Nancy Pelosi this cycle as the Republican boogeyman in the St. Louis area.  In races where a candidate doesn’t have a voting record to reference, the well-worn tactic is to tie them to the more extreme part of their national party.  In the St. Louis area, Bush – because of her advocacy for the defund police movement and her anti-Israel positions – fits the bill.  I’ve previously noted this in Senate 15.  Here it is in Senate 23 (St. Charles, Eigel termed).

Quade Hits Kehoe on China

The new ad from Crystal Quade revisits a topic that we haven’t heard of much since the primary… selling land to China.  See it here.

In the state House I wrote the bill to stop China from taking our family farms. Mike Kehoe was the deciding vote for China.  I’ll fight for all women Democrats and Republicans to protect our abortion freedoms while Mike Kehoe says his number one priority is banning abortion…

DNC Chair Touts MO Dems

Jamie Harrison, the Chair of the National Democratic Committee, gives some love to Missouri candidates in a Twitter thread.  Missouri, we have some incredible statewide Democratic candidates that you need to know about ahead of the election this November!  See it here.

·       One MOScouter snarks: This is about all the national party will do for folks down-ballot.

NYT: PBMs and Pharmacy Deserts

The New York Times ran an article about the new prevalence of “pharmacy deserts,” placing the blame on Pharmacy Benefit Managers. Read it here.

·       In every state, The Times identified at least one example since 2022 in which an independent drugstore closed and the pharmacist blamed P.B.M.s… They have disproportionately affected rural and low-income communities, creating so-called pharmacy deserts that make it harder for residents to get prescriptions and medical advice.

·       To some extent, the P.B.M.s are simply doing their jobs, the most important of which is to reduce drug costs for their clients…

·       The P.B.M.s have been poaching customers from rival pharmacies. For example, they push and in some cases require patients to stop filling certain prescriptions at local drugstores and to instead fill them via the benefit managers’ mail-order pharmacies. That tactic has hastened the demise of some local drugstores, according to pharmacy owners.

Sign Stealers in Springfield

Frustrated that their political sign kept getting stolen, one woman attached an AirTag and then followed it when it disappeared.  It led to a trunkful of political signs.  Apparently, it was this kid’s hobby to drive around stealing signs.  See the viral video here.

·       She says she’s pressing charges.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard McIntosh added NICE CXone.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $100,000 from Conservative Leadership for Missouri.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri Company.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Mainline Services LLC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from SRC Holding Corporation.

Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $25,000 from Conservative Leadership for Southeast Mo PO (pro-Bean).

Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $25,000 from Midwest Region Laborers Political League Education Fund.

Fearless PAC - $10,000 from Missouri NEA – PAC.

Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenbern) - $10,000 from Missouri NEA – PAC.

The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $25,000 from Richard Miller (Pittsburg, KS).

NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $15,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement For Good Government PAC.

Bootheel Values PAC (pro-Burger) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (minimum wage) - $27,000 from SEIU Healthcare IL (Chicago, IL).

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $23,000 from SEIU HealthCare Missouri PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $30,000 from Bayer (Whippany, NJ).

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from JB PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from 417 PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

MO Chamber PAC - $10,000 from AT&T.

Citizens for Integrity and Accountability - $10,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.

RSLC-Missouri PAC - $50,000 from Republican State Leadership Committee (Washington, DC).

Justin Aldred For Boone - $25,000 from Justin Aldred.

MIC PAC - $10,000 from Allstate Insurance Company (Northbrook, IL).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kenny Murdock, Bryan Pratt, and Rebecca McClanahan.