MOScout Weekender: Senate 15 Poll Shows Race ThisClose - Hallway Sees A3 Passing - Millions More Into Sports Betting Campaign and more…

Money Watch

Ten days until the Election and big money is still flowing into those hotly contested ballot questions.

·       Another $4.6 million added to the sports betting proponents war-chest. 

·       And, about $600,000 into the No on Amendment 3 campaign.  $250,000 of it from Cornerstone 1791.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 15

Survey conducted October 21 through October 24, 2024. 406 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full report here.

Q1: Candidates in the General Election for Missouri State Senate District 15 are Republican David Gregory and Democrat Joe Pereles. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

David Gregory: 45%

Joe Pereles: 47%

Undecided: 8%

Q2: What is your opinion of Cori Bush?

Favorable: 9%

Unfavorable: 63%

No opinion: 28%

Q3: Constitutional Amendment 3 would establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives.  From what you know about Amendment 3, do you plan to vote in favor or against it?

In favor: 54%

Against: 38%

Not sure: 8%

Q4: Proposition A would increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2026. From what you know about Proposition A, do you plan to vote in favor or against it?

In favor: 57%

Against: 32%

Not sure: 11%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: A3

I asked lobbyists, “Will Amendment 3 pass (reverse abortion ban)?”   27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Yes, it will pass… 92.6%

2. No, it will not pass… 3.7%

3. Too close to call… 3.7%

Sample of Comments

·       I have yet to hear any of my friends disconnected with JC to say they oppose it. I see signs but the local conversation seems to be overwhelming in support for the measure. However, that is why we have elections - the ultimate poll.

·       Passes by a narrow margin

·       Despite a horrible campaign and messaging that makes no sense, it will pass.

·       It will pass. Missouri has fully embraced national issues in politics. You can’t just jump off the surf board half way through the wave.

·       The "pro-life" zealots in the moleg are about to find out how out-of-touch they are with voters when it comes to women's healthcare.

·       But closer than people think. Rural areas turn out big against, gives conservatives reason to push their own amendment next session and grind the gears of session up.

·       Yes, and the issue will be front and center for the forseeable future.

·       Yes, and it won't be particularly close.

·       low margin but passes

·       But it will be very close.

·       It will pass and the general assembly will try to reverse it like usual. It’s not amazing how a super minority in the state control the state house. What’s amazing is voters in Missouri are so lazy to let it happen. Missourians will drive fifty miles to cross a state line to bet on football every weekend but won’t drive 1 mile to vote a few times per year.

·       It will be a lot closer than most people think.

Who Won the Week?

Who Won the Week will return next week.

Disclosing Job Conversations

I wrote earlier this week that my top change to ethics laws in Missouri would be to require elected officials to disclose any job conversations.  One reader said it reminded him of this Atlantic article about Jack Abramoff. Read it here.

·       “The number-one weapon used to influence a member of Congress was the promise of a future, high-paying job to a member's top staffers.”

$5K+ Contributions

Winning for Missouri Education - $4,600,000 from Betfair Interactive US LLC (Jersey City, NJ).

Vote No on 3 - $250,000 from Cornerstone 1791.

Vote No on 3 - $250,000 from Eckelkamp Management Group, Inc.

Vote No on 3 - $60,000 from America Next, Inc. (Baton Rouge, LA).

Vote No on 3 - $25,000 from Theresa Archer.

Vote No on 3 - $20,000 from David Snively.

Vote No on 3 - $15,000 from Craig Schlapprizzi.

Vote No on 3 - $10,000 from Stan Crader.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $25,000 from Timothy Sullivan.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from Michael Ross.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from Deanie Reis.

Missouri Stands With Women, Inc. - $25,000 from Rich Peters.

Missouri Stands With Women, Inc. - $25,000 from Lisa Peters.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Missouri Leadership Fund.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey)- $20,000 from RAI Services Company (Winston-Salem, NC).

Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $25,000 from   Majority Forward.

NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $10,000 from David Steward.

Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $9,391 from Present Day Conservatives.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprise Services LLC (Las Vegas, NV).

Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $10,000 from David Steward.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $6,787 from PowerSwitch Action (Oakland, CA).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $13,278 from Planned Parenthood Great Rivers-Missouri.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Bayer Corporation (Pittsburgh, PA).

Yes on 5 - $40,000 from RIS Inc.

Treatment Now PAC - $10,000 from Assisted Recovery Center.

Stronger Missouri - $10,000 from UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee (Washington, DC).

Missouri Hemp PAC - $25,000 from MO Hemp Trade Association.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $25,000 from Strong Law.

Ragsdale for OFallon - $5,010 from Linda Ragsdale.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Ken Waller, Freddy Barnes, Jennifer Bukowsky, and Lauren Hieger.

Sunday: Kurt Schaefer, Stacey Preis, and Jay Houghton.