MOScout Daily Update: Strickler, Hein Top HRCC Targets - HRCC 3:1 COH Lead for Final Week - Sparks Rebukes JP - Senate 15 Messages Poll Well and more…
A Tale of Two Committees
The 8-Day campaign finance reports (covering activity from October 1 – October 24) are due today at 5PM. But a pair of reports filed over the weekend might be the most consequential we’ll see. The reports of the House Republican Campaign Committee and the House Democratic Campaign Committee show the enormous disparity in resources as the two parties battle for a small number of swing districts.
Over the last three weeks, the Republican House committee spent ten times what the Democratic committee spent. $1.4 million versus $145,245. That is, $1.2 million more.
· In fact, HRCC spent more on polling ($210,485) than HDCC spent in total.
And, as of October 24, despite the huge spending, HRCC retained a cash on-hand lead over their Democratic counterpart, $879,738 compared to $246,326.
HRCC Direct Expenditures Oct 1 – Oct 24
HRCC’s direct expenditures listed on this report reveal the races they’re targeting…
House 34 (Pick-up attempt – Kemp Strickler) - $150,641
House 136 (Pick-up attempt – Stephanie Hein) - $149,226
House 133 (Defense – Melanie Stinnett) - $125,464
House 105 (Defense – Schwadron open) - $117,889
House 96 (Defense – Brad Christ) - $112,933
House 101 (Defense – Ben Keathley) - $100,239
House 100 (Defense – Philip Oehlerking) - $79,083
House 17 (Defense – Bill Allen) - $65,087
House 98 (Pick-up attempt – Lavender open) - $34,071
House 94 (Defense – Jim Murphy) - $32,181
House 31 (Defense – Stacy open) - $28,393
House 12 (Pick-up attempt – Jamie Johnson) - $28,082
House 104 (Defense – Christofanelli open) - $24,652
House 16 (Defense – Chris Brown) - $17,563
House 106 (Defense – Travis Wilson) - $14,199
House 30 (Defense – JP) - $11,304
House 20 (Defense – McMullen open) - $8,014
House 135 (Pick-up attempt – Betsy Fogle) - $2,010
House 132 (Pick-up attempt – Quade open) - $2,000
House 21 (Pick-up attempt – Sauls open) - $1,500
House 29 (Pick-up attempt – Aaron Crossley) - $1,000
House 10 (Defense – Bill Falkner) - $8.80
Sparks Contra Patterson
Days after Speaker-elect Jon Patterson went on the record opposing plans to undermine Amendment 3, should it pass next week, he was thumped by Rep. Justin Sparks. Jack Suntrup has the story here.
“I don’t think Jon Patterson sounds very much like a Republican,” Sparks said in a text message. “I think the abortion ban is working out great for unborn babies.”
· Sparks is Vice-Chair of the Missouri Freedom Caucus.
What It Means
This should be peak-power time for JP. He has yet to make committee assignments or refer bills. He holds all the cards. And yet here is a Freedomer calling him a RINO in the daily paper.
The Freedom Caucus has often defined itself in opposition to the formal Republican leadership. But I’m surprised by such an early and public rebuke aimed at the incoming speaker.
· I would expect consequences for Sparks. If JP wants to have an impactful first session, he’ll have to instill a little caucus discipline early. We’ll see.
Senate 15: GOP Hit on Bush Looks Smart
From last weekend’s poll, it looks like the decision by Team Gregory to try to tie Joe Pereles to Cori Bush is a smart one…
Survey conducted October 21 through October 24, 2024. 406 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey.. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q2: What is your opinion of Cori Bush?
Favorable: 9%
Unfavorable: 63%
No opinion: 28%
Meanwhile Team Pereles attacking David Gregory on abortion is solid as well…
Q3: Constitutional Amendment 3 would establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives. From what you know about Amendment 3, do you plan to vote in favor or against it?
In favor: 54%
Against: 38%
Not sure: 8%
Parson Aide Gets Judgeship
Post-Dispatch reports on Governor Mike Parson giving one of his relatively inexperienced staffers a judgeship. Read it here.
Gov. Mike Parson found a landing spot for one of his attorneys Friday, appointing him as a judge to hear cases in three eastern Missouri counties. Jonathan Yelton, who graduated from law school two years ago, will serve as an associate circuit judge in the 12th Judicial Circuit covering Audrain, Montgomery and Warren counties, the governor’s office said in an announcement. Yelton, who received his degree from the University of Kansas law school, has served as Parson’s deputy general counsel for the past 18 months.
Other Appts
Parson also appointed…
· Cynthia R. Black, of Marshfield, will be appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Webster County in the 30th Judicial Circuit.
· Micha L. Dixon, of Jamesport, will be appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Daviess County in the 43rd Judicial Circuit.
· Kevin S. Hillman, of Waynesville, will be appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Pulaski County in the 25th Judicial Circuit.
· The Honorable D. Charles Replogle, of Marshfield, will be appointed as Circuit Judge for the 30th Judicial Circuit.
· Sheila Tracy, of Richmond, was appointed Ray County Presiding Commissioner.
· Alex T. Van Zandt, of Bethany, will be appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Mercer County in the 3rd Judicial Circuit.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $250,000 from Reproductive Freedom for All (Washington, DC).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $50,000 from Michelle Locher (Boca Raton, FL).
Missouri Stands With Women, Inc. - $10,000 from Aaron Ferber.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (minimum wage) - $50,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $6,000 from David Glaus.
American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Fred McQueary.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from David L. Steward.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Jennifer Monheiser.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $91,875 from Michigan Democratic State Central Committee (Lansing, MI).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Bradley Cooper and Katie Steele Danner.