MOScout Daily Update: Chamber Backs Dems in Key Senate Races - Hawley As Dealmaker? - DSCC Adds MO to Target List - Schmitt Campaigns With Trump and more…

Chamber Endorses Dems in Key Senate Races

The Missouri Chamber of Commerce has released their November endorsements, leaving most statewide races open, and backing Democrats in some key races.  See the endorsement list here.

The Chamber only made one statewide endorsement: Mike Kehoe – who they supported in the Republican primary. 

All the other statewide races are unendorsed.  Some might view that as a bit of a rebuke to Republicans who traditionally enjoyed almost automatic endorsements from many business organizations.

More interesting, the Chamber is backing Democrats in two top battleground Senate races…

·       Senate 11 – they’re choosing Rep. Robbie Sauls over Joe Nicola.

·       Senate 15 – they’re backing Joe Pereles over former Rep. David Gregory.

And in Senate 15, they’ve already spent $24,425 for a mail ad in support of Pereles.

While it’s impossible to know exactly the thinking, my guess would be that the Chamber, which noted “political dysfunction stalled key business priorities,” could be nervous that Nicola would be an additional member of the Freedom Caucus in the Senate.

In Senate 15, the Chamber could be averse to Gregory’s trial attorney background, as that’s a top issue for them.

In House races, there are fewer surprises.  The Chaber is largely backing incumbents. 

·       In House 31 (Dan Stacy termed) they gave a dual endorsement to both the Republican and Democrat.

·       In the St. Charles battleground races, of House 104 (Phil Christofanelli termed) and Adam Schwadron termed), they’re backing Republicans Terri Violet and Colin Wellenkamp.

An Eye on House 38

One MOScouter thinks House 38 could be a sleeper race.  Rep. Chris Lonsdale is running for re-election. It’s listed on the MOScout Battleground Districts, but isn’t on the PowerRankings – yet.

I think this (Trump sign and Democrat Marty Jacobs sign in same yard) accurately represents 38... Marty was a principal at both high schools locally, he has a lot of name recognition… There is probably a 4 to 1 ratio of signs of Marty v Lonsdale. 

DSCC Adds Missouri to Target List

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has added Missouri to its “2024

RACES TO WATCH.”  See it here. (Missouri is on the final page).

With an electoral history full of surprises, Josh Hawley’s divisiveness, a strong challenger in Lt. Col. Lucas Kunce (USMCR), and abortion on the ballot, Missouri has all the ingredients needed for a shocking upset.

Democrats have outperformed the top-of-ticket margin in Missouri’s last two Senate races during presidential cycles by as much as 15% and 25%. And with a well-funded initiative to end Missouri’s total abortion ban on the ballot, Hawley will be forced to play defense on his worst issue while facing a huge turnout boost likely to favor Kunce.

Punchbowl: Hawley As “Dealmaker”

Punchbowl looks at Senator Josh Hawley’s populist policies and how it’s led him to partner with liberals on specific issues.  Read it here.

·       While still a conservative stalwart, Hawley has attracted cross-aisle counterparts — including some of the most liberal senators — on issues that cut against traditional GOP orthodoxy.

·       “I’ve learned more about the institution and learned more about how to get things done,” Hawley told us, reflecting specifically on his push for more Covid-era stimulus checks with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “As a really young junior senator at the time, I realized this is the ticket here … That showed me there’s a path here.”

·       As a result, Democrats are comfortable working with Hawley in ways they wouldn’t have been a few years ago. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) is partnering with Hawley on a more heavy-handed approach to regulating artificial intelligence, for example. Blumenthal told us he views Hawley as a reliable partner.

·       Democratic senators we spoke with now see Hawley as something of a dealmaker — though in a nontraditional sense, of course. After all, Hawley wasn’t out there voting for the bipartisan deals struck during the last Congress.

·       Hawley partnered with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) to force a Senate vote earlier this year on re-upping a since-expired compensation program for victims of nuclear radiation.

·       Hawley’s economic views sometimes make him sound like a progressive on everything from crackdowns on corporate power to support for labor unions. He’s even marched in union picket lines… “I’m forthrightly trying to push my own party toward being more pro-labor, more pro-worker in general,” Hawley said.

Wasinger Gets LELC

Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee Dave Wasinger touts the endorsement of the Law Enforcement Legislative Coalition.  See the endorsement here.

·       David is an adamant supporter of law enforcement who prioritizes public safety and has worked with law enforcement leaders throughout the State of Missouri.

Schmitt Campaigning With Trump

Senator Eric Schmitt traveled with Donald Trump over the weekend to his rally in Pennsylvania.

Lobbyists Registrations

Matthew Paul Doellman added Hannibal Regional Healthcare System.

Craig Saperstein deleted Professional Certification Coalition.

$5K+ Contributions

Yes on 5 (Osage River casino) - $1,000,172 from Bally's Corp (Providence, RI).

Yes on 5 - $500,172 from RIS Inc.

Yes on 5 - $500,000 from Osage Landing Development Company.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $25,000 from Dowd Bennett, LLP.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Schlichter Bogard.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kenny Ross, Jeff Harris, and Zach Wyatt.