MOScout Daily Update: Talk on GOP Gov Race - Will Harris Help MO Dems? - Ads from Eigel, Malek and Corley - Bailey Talks to Trump and more…
Gov Talk
One MOScouter watching the Republican governor’s race says it’s “definitely a three-way race.” I’ll have a fresh MOScout poll this weekend, but here’s a look at the state of play from someone with pretty good seats…
· “Mike Kehoe may have bought his way to his ceiling.” This could be an existential problem for Kehoe: that his multi-million dollars war-chest advantage can only take him so far. He’s not wired to be a bomb-thrower, and that’s the current zeitgeist for Trump Republicanism. If so, he’s dependent on the right vote split between Ashcroft and Eigel to come out on top.
· “Jay Ashcroft is seeing a bit of a rise in the polls.” Folks generally tell me that Ashcroft is still be leading, but his lead up is only single digits, and often within the margin of error.
· “Bill Eigel has legit shot if he gets enough money.” One separate source thinks we could see yet another big late infusion from trial attorneys. The prize of the governor’s mansion would be a huge win. In addition to vetoing tort reform, there are a slew of appointments – judicial and otherwise – that could entice them to go all-in.
In the end, this could be an Election Day turnout contest. Kehoe pushing all the the interest groups behind him to engage members; Eigel counting on grass-roots wildfire; and Ashcroft hoping that GOPers come home to the Ashcroft last name when they confront the choice on August 6.
Harris to Juice MO Dem Turnout?
One reader thinks that the Democrats’ switch to Kamala Harris could meaningful help Missouri Democrats…
· Republicans in just about any competitive race have been doing research and testing attacks on the premise they can just tie their opponent to Joe Biden, leveraging four years of baked-in negative messages.
· Now, Harris has become the presumptive nominee in the most chaotic way imaginable (and if Donald Trump has taught us anything, attention driven by chaos is not inherently negative).
· Republican operatives may insist Harris won’t impact Black turnout too. But ask yourself, can anyone seriously think that could possibly be the case after 3 months of blistering attacks against her by the GOP and the right wing?
· With abortion on the ballot, and Kamala at the top of the ticket, it’s hard to see how this won’t end up being the most advantageous turnout dynamics for Democrats in Missouri since 2008. The state is redder than it was back then, but Missouri Democrats were also winning some statewide races by 20% margins... so some room to spare.
Ad Watch
Bill Eigel – Eigel’s latest ad (see it here) takes Mike Kehoe to task for calling Eigel’s plan to start rounding up illegal immigrants “foolish.” This ad perfectly encapsulates Eigel’s campaign. He’s taking a hard-line position, and then calling everyone else moderate. The idea of directing state employees to make raids to “round up” people it suspects aren’t legal citizens isn’t very small-government. But today’s Republican Party has elevated immigrants to top-bogeyman status, and Eigel’s ad effectively plays to it.
Vivek Malek – The anti-immigrant sentiment is a problem for Malek. His latest ad (see it here) touts his achievements in office. He’s returned record amounts of lost property and provided hundreds of millions in low-interest loans. But I’m increasingly skeptical whether that matters more to Republican primary voters than the fact that the voice-over narrative seems to pronounce his first name differently than he does in the ad.
Jamie Corley – Corely released a pair of ads (see them here). She promises secure elections while also highlighting a pro-business agenda – something that’s a bit of an anomaly in this election cycle. It’s nice to know someone still cares about growing the economy, but do Republican voters? And does Corley have the fire power to get that message statewide?
Bailey Huddled With Trump
On Mark Reardon’s podcast, Attorney General Andrew Bailey recounts his meeting Donald Trump at the Republican convention last week. Listen to it here (9-minute mark).
Reardon asked if there would be a Trump endorsement and Bailey demurred to provide any details of their discussion.
· No endorsement in this race leaves Will Scharf’s “Trump attorney” moniker as the de facto endorsement.
Lobbyists Registrations
Keith Macejewski added The Gordian Group, Inc.
Joia Erin Thornton added The Faith Leaders of Color Coalition.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $175,000 from Rightpath PAC.
BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $50,000 from Joan Langenberg.
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $15,000 from Missouri C PAC.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $50,000 from Missouri Freedom PAC.
Liberty and Justice PAC - $7,175 from Paladin PAC.
Cultivating Freedom PAC (pro-Richey) - $15,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Gladius PAC (pro-Christofanelli) - $5,200 from SNK Real Property Holdings LLC.
Sander for Missouri - $20,000 from Chris Sander.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Spire Missouri, Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Charter Communications.
The Rowdy PAC - $12,000 from SNK Real Property Holdings LLC.
Leadership for America PAC - $10,000 from Paladin PAC.
Kansas City Regional Association Of Realtors Missouri RPAC - $6,797 from Missouri Realtors PAC Inc.
St Louis Association of Realtors-PAC - $10,203 from Missouri Realtors PAC, Inc.
SCOPE PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Medical Political Action Committee.
Missouri Energy Development Association PAC - $10,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.
Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $9,509 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC- Federal Committee.
Citizens Supporting Monarch FPD - $15,000 from Professional Firefighters of West St. Louis County.
Melesa Johnson for Jackson County Prosecutor - $7,500 from Eastside Forward PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Tom Krewson, Darrell Pollock, and Bob Quinn.