MOScout Daily Update: Stand For Us PAC’s Big TV Buy - MOScout State Senate Predictions and more…
Third Party PACs
In these final two weeks, we’re seeing the entry of some new third-party PACs buying TV ads to help their preferred candidates over the line.
Scanning through the news shows last night I noticed two new ones in rotation.
· Stand For Us PAC produced ads highlighting the 340B drug program which they say “gives illegals free healthcare.” One ad is pro-Andrew Bailey, the other hits Mike Kehoe before pivoting to pro-Ashcroft. It looks like a big buy – the contract at one St. Louis station alone is $90,000. And rumors yesterday were that it was a $1+ million statewide buy.
· Heartland Conservative Coalition has an ad running that dings Bill Eigel for his time in the senate. The ad references discrepancies between his public positions and votes, and calls him self-serving.
Senate Primary Predictions
Here’s my take on the state senate primaries. I generally evaluate four aspects: geography, money, ideology, and third-party allies, but of course talk to lobbyists and consultants about their views of the race.
· Senate 3 – Rep. Mike Henderson is the favorite in this race to replace Sen. Elaine Gannon. It sounds like the pro-school choice folks who once were expected to come in and boost Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway’s campaign have decided to pass.
· Senate 7 – This is considered a toss-up by observers. I’m picking Rep. Patty Lewis based on Dems being energized to send women into the statehouse. Pat Contreras has put together good money, but it feels like Lewis fits the times.
· Senate 9 – This should be an easy re-election for Sen. Barbara Washington.
· Senate 11 – Rep. Aaron McMullen is the favorite here. He’s raised a lot more money. The scuttlebutt is that this race is closer than it should be. Some folks think we could even see an upset from Joe Nicola.
· Senate 13 – Sen. Angela Mosley is the favorite. Its’ hard to beat an incumbent. I’m picking an upset here though based on Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark garnering some third-party money, and a concerted effort to break the Elbert Walton machine’s grip on North County Dem politics. Fresh MOScout poll coming next week on this race.
· Senate 15 – It seems to be a two-person race at this point between David Gregory and Mark Harder. I’d had Harder with the edge, but Gregory’s recent cash infusion is showing up the TV airwaves with a strong commercial. I’m sticking with my Harder pick though it feels like a coin-toss right now. Fresh MOScout poll coming next week on this race.
· Senate 21 –Considered a toss-up by most folks, my gut is that Doug Richey fits the Republican primary profile just a little bit better. Though Kurtis Gregory has a substantial money advantage, Richey has enough money, he’s got AFP boots on the ground, and he’s ideologically closer to the base. Fresh MOScout poll coming next week on this race.
· Senate 23 – This could legitimately go any direction. I’ve heard folks say polling has Reps. Adam Schnelting and Phil Christofanelli tied. And some think it’s possible as the two trade blows, Rich Chrismer could even sneak in. I’m picking Christofanelli because it has a huge money advantage, much of which will hit in mailboxes and airwaves in these final days. Fresh MOScout poll coming next week on this race.
· Senate 27 – I think this could go either way. I’m picking Rep. Jamie Burger based on money and geography. But Rep. Chris Dinkins has been working the door very hard and is a better ideological fit. Her ground game gives her a legitimate shot. One potential decider is how well Jacob Turner runs as he’s expected to take votes away from Dinkins conservative base. Fresh MOScout poll coming next week on this race.
· Senate 31 – It looks like Sen. Rick Brattin’s re-election is increasingly safe here as the campaign of Reps. Dan Houx and Mike Haffner haven’t gained enough traction to take out an incumbent.
· Senate 33 – This is yet another toss-up race. Rep. Brad Hudson feels like the ideological fit for this district, but I’m picking Rep Travis Smith base on his sizable money advantage, and geography.
eMailbag on Trump’s Non-Endorsement for AG
The stubborn fact about Scharf's heavy self-promotion as "Trump's attorney" is that the described "de facto" endorsement still isn't an actual endorsement of Scharf and the polling data shows primary voters haven't bought it. The AG has been on the front lines for Trump since before Scharf and was the first state official to endorse President Trump in April 2023. President Trump is well aware of that.
eMailbag on MOScout House Predictions
· I think John Simmons beats Kyle Marquart, and Gary Bonacker probably loses as well. Carolyn Caton has a real shot against Chris Sander.
· I think you are mistaken on HD 19 favorite. Patricia Hernandez has raised more and has most endorsements. She is working the doors and meeting with community leaders.
Lobbyists Registrations
Walter Gonzales added American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA).
$5K+ Contributions
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $250,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $42,500 from The Revitalization Project (Springfield, VA).
Crystal PAC (pro-Quade) - $10,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562 Political Education Fund.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $7,175 from HealthPAC.
True Patriot PAC (pro-Brattin) - $47,000 from Safe Streets Safe Communities (Washington, DC).
The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $23,000 from Safe Streets Safe Communities (Washington, DC).
Cultivating Freedom PAC (pro-Richey) - $10,000 from Craig Porter.
CLCP PAC (pro-Haffner) - $9,500 from Jabel Companies LLC.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $15,016 from ACLU of Missouri, Inc.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Patrick OConnor (Christian, MS).
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $14,851 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $6,000 from MO Corn Growers Association.
Uniting Missouri PAC (pro-Parson) - $10,000 from 36 Political Fund – State.
SEMO Veteran Remembrance PAC - $6,000 from Francis Robinson.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. David Tyson Smith, Charlie Shields, Jay Atkins, and Megan-Ellyia Green.