MOScout Daily Update: The Money Factor - MOScout Statewide Predictions - Malek Poll - Lewis Shakes Fist at Contreras and more…

The Money Factor

Money is the main theme as I look at the statewide primaries.  In each race, I’m curious to see whether money overcomes a candidates’ biggest obstacle.

·       In the Republican governor’s race, will Mike Kehoe’s money advantage allow him to upset the Ashcroft last name?

·       In the Democratic governor’s race, will Mike Hamra’s money prove more valuable than Crystal Quade’s seemingly unanimous endorsement list?

·       In the lieutenant governor’s race, will David Wasinger’s money establish him as a household name despite little political background?  

·       In the secretary of state’s race, will Dean Plocher’s money help him bury the months of damning headlines?

·       In the treasurer’s race, will Vivek Malek’s money get Republican voters to focus on his record, not his name or accent?

·       And, of course, the attorney general’s race is just two guys with oodles of money being spent on ads, ads, ads.

I am genuinely curious in each of these races.

Statewide Primary Predictions

Here’s my guess on how things turn out next August 6…

Governor – I think Mike Kehoe will win.  From what I can tell there are just more of his ads on television and he looks legit.  I think the flamethrower props etc have been overdone; they don’t have the impact they once did. 

When Kehoe is riding on a horse, he looks like someone who knows how to ride a horse. When he’s walking a factory floor, he looks like someone who knows his way around a business.  That comes through in his ads.

No doubt there are winning scenarios for each candidate.  Voters could “come home” to Jay Ashcroft after all the mud is slung; or the right-wing could ditch Ashcroft and turn out big for Bill Eigel.  (I’ll admit, I think a Governor Eigel and the turmoil that could bring would be good for my business.)  But if I had to bet my house one way or the other, I think Kehoe wins.

On the Democratic side, the Mike Hamra ads are running almost non-stop in St. Louis, and I’m told the same thing is happening on the Kansas City side.  In normal times, this would be the easy pick.  But I think Crystal Quade pulls it out.  That’s because while we hear “year of the woman” almost every cycle for Dems, I think this is the year for women.  Between Dobbs and Kamala, I think there’s real energy for women candidates on the Democratic ballot. Also, her commercial – even running one tenth as often as Hamra’s – is just better. 

Lieutenant Governor – David Wasinger’s ads are swamping the airwaves.  I think his money will be hard to beat.  Lincoln Hough is more telegenic, and his ads are sharper than Wasinger’s.

But it’s telling to me that I haven’t seen any anti-Hough ads from Wasinger.  Perhaps he doesn’t think he needs them, or maybe a late hit is coming this week.  In this race, I’m going with the money candidate.

Secretary of State – This is the toss-up race because no one has established true air (TV) superiority.  Dean Plocher clearly has the most money and is running the most ads.  But I could make the case for just about any of these eight candidates because no one has put together enough money to effectively blanket the state with their story.  I’m going to use this slot to pick a nice upset for my statewide guesses… Shane Schoeller.  He’s high enough on the ballot (#2) with a sturdy name to grab a fair chunk of the low-information voters.  And I’d expect him to do okay in the GOP-vote-rich southwest corner.

State Treasurer – Although there are six candidates, most observers see this a two-person race between the incumbent Vivek Malek and Rep. Cody Smith.  Malek’s war-chest is several times larger than Smith’s, and yet there are a fair number of folks who think Republican voters won’t vote for an immigrant in times like these.  I think this is true for some portion of GOP voters, but I don’t think it’s enough to overcome disparity in resources.  I think it will be a close race (much much much closer than the co/efficient poll below), but my guess is that Malek wins.

Attorney General – Both Will Scharf and Andrew Bailey has raised enormous amounts of money.  They seem ideological identical.  Bailey’s ads seem crisper and land with more punch.  But Donald Trump looms over the Republican Party, and I think Scharf’s ability to tie himself to Trump will carry the day.

Bits

·       Co/efficient says their most recent poll has incumbent Vivek Malek with a 20-point lead in the treasurer’s race.  But he’s still dwarfed by undecideds.   See it here. 

·       Southern Drawl PAC, the pro-Holly Rehder PAC, is on the air with a commercial which is simply Rehder’s previous commercial being watched by someone on a laptop. It’s a low-cost way to amplify the candidate’s message with little production expenses.

·       In Senate 7, Rep. Patty Lewis decries her opponent, Pat Contreras, going negative.  Is it a sign that Contreras is desperate?  Or smart?

·       In 3-CD, Team Onder is raising eyebrows at the most recent FEC filing from Missouri Conservatives for Congress.  That’s the SuperPAC supporting Kurt Schaefer.  It shows a $500,000 from Blaine for Congress on July 1, but then a refund issued for $125,000 on July 17.  Team Onder’s spin: they know it’s over, and Congressman Luetkemeyer asked for some of his money back.  We’ll see…

eMailbag on Hot Races

·       The Simmons-Marquart race will be close, but I think you are correct on the Kyle Marquart victory prediction.  The anti-Marquart third-party attack ads just keep coming in the mail.  However, I'm hearing from folks who are disgusted by them. I think it backfires on Simmons.

·       It’s amazing that Christofanelli will spend nearly $1M to Schneltings $200K and it’s a toss-up. With Eigel and Onder on the ballot, I expect a large turn-out in St. Charles County. That could benefit Schnelting as he’s viewed as the farthest right and many of the same people backing Eigel are backing Schnelting. I also know that Schnelting is hitting the doors every day with a team of 12-volunteers.

$5K+ Contributions

Defend Missouri (pro-Scharf) $1,100,000 from The Concord Fund (Vienna, VA).

Defend Missouri - $1,620,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Defend Missouri - $1,050,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Defend Missouri - $395,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee (pro-Scharf) - $300,000 from Club for Growth (Washington, DC).

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $250,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $100,000 from Robert Brinkmann.

American Dream PAC - $50,000 from Continental Investment LLC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from David Winton.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Atkins Since 1925.

BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $100,000 from Trial Lawyers for Justice (Bozeman, MT).

BILL PAC - $20,000 from Citizens For Justice (Carson City, NV).

BILL PAC - $10,000 from Jean Baue.

Lincoln PAC - $40,000 from Reid Rosen (Eagan, MN).

Lincoln PAC - $25,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $5,004 from Viceroy Government Relations.

Independence PAC (pro-McMullen) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $40,000 from Conservative Justice PAC

Present Day Conservatives (pro-Haralson) - $5,001 from Samuel Jones.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from MSCEW PAC Federal Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Donna Lichtenegger, and Mike McMillan.