MOScout Weekender: Kehoe-Ashcroft Tied - Many Voters Still Undecided Across All Races - Hallway Predicts Next Gov and more…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide GOP
Survey conducted July 22 through July 24, 2024. 864 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Find the full report here.
Q: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Governor are Darrell McClanahan III, Jeremy Gundel, Bill Eigel, Robert Olson, Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe, Chris Wright, Darren Grant, and Amber Thomsen. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Bill Eigel: 18%
Jay Ashcroft: 29%
Mike Kehoe: 29%
Other: 9%
Undecided: 15%
Q: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Lieutenant Governor are Holly Rehder, Dave Wasinger, Lincoln Hough, Paul Berry III, Tim Baker, and Matthew Porter. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Holly Rehder: 13%
Dave Wasinger: 18%
Lincoln Hough: 17%
Paul Berry III: 2%
Tim Baker: 4%
Matthew Porter: 3%
Undecided: 42%
Q: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Secretary of State are Valentina Gomez, Shane Schoeller, Denny Hoskins, Adam Schwadron, Jamie Corley, Dean Plocher, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, and Mike Carter. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Valentina Gomez: 7%
Shane Schoeller: 11%
Denny Hoskins: 11%
Adam Schwadron: 2%
Jamie Corley: 5%
Dean Plocher: 5%
Mary Elizabeth Coleman: 9%
Mike Carter: 8%
Undecided: 42%
Q: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for State Treasurer are Cody Smith, Andrew Koenig, Lori Rook, Vivek Malek, Tina Goodrick, and Karan Pujji. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Cody Smith: 9%
Andrew Koenig: 10%
Lori Rook: 9%
Vivek Malek: 31%
Tina Goodrick: 2%
Karan Pujji: 3%
Undecided: 36%
Q: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Attorney General are Will Scharf and Andrew Bailey. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Will Scharf: 31%
Andrew Bailey: 36%
Undecided: 33%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Final GOP Gov Prediction
I asked lobbyists, “Who will win the Republican gubernatorial nomination?” 26 replies…
RESULTS
1. Jay Ashcroft… 15.4%
2. Bill Eigel… 15.4%
3. Mike Kehoe… 69.2%
Sample of Comments
· Lots of undecideds still and they’ll break for Jay.
· The last name is the only reason he wins. You have to be underwhelmed by the election Team Ashcroft ran.
· This is going to be tight. Staying with Kehoe but not confident at all.
· The Kehoe campaign has done everything it would take to win pretty much any election over the last 50 years. Is that what wins a Republican primary in 2024? Maybe.
· It will be very very very close, but Kehoe will win in the end
· Such an odd race, but I've driven all over MO and I've only seen Kehoe signs. Normally not an indicator but it's a weird new world.
· [Ashcroft] It’s going to be close… But I do think older Republican primary voters come home.
· Kehoe stagnating, Ashcroft sinking, Eigel rising.
· Eigel surges late with an influx of nationalism $$.
· God willing Kehoe.
Who Won the Week?
Who Won the Week will return.
$5K+ Contributions
Hamra for Missouri - $300,000 from Michael Hamra.
BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $95,000 from The Revitalization Project (Springfield, VA).
BILL PAC - $25,000 from DM Law Kansas City LLC.
BILL PAC - $25,000 from Langdon and Emison LLC.
BILL PAC - $25,000 from Gail Griswold.
BILL PAC - $10,000 from Advanced Injury Care LLC.
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $50,000 from Janet Ashcroft.
Committee for Liberty - $10,000 from K. Hamilton Corporation.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from I.U.O.E. Local 513.
Uniting Missouri PAC (pro-Parson) - $300,000 from Holland Law Firm LLC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $100,000 from David Steward.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin).
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Great Northwest PAC (pro-Rusty Black).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $25,000 from Mary Ann Srenco.
Taxpayers in Support of Public Education - $20,000 from Page PAC.
Citizens for Andrew Hardwick - $10,000 from Andrew Hardwick.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).
Freedom Incorporated - $45,937 from Lucas Kunce for Missouri.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays (Sunday) to Karla Eslinger, and Vicki Englund.