MOScout Weekender: $4M Into Anti-Sports Betting - Senate 11 Poll - Hallway Hearts Lincoln - WWTW and more…
Gaming War
Ceasars Entertainment deposited $4 million into the new anti-sports betting committee, Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment.
A new commercial details their line of attack: Sports betting won’t help education.
Big out-of-state gambling corporations are spending millions pushing Amendment 2, a deceptive measure they claim will fund education. Amendment 2 would give them the power to operate online sports gambling and rake in billions. But the state's official analysis concluded Amendment 2 would allow them to pay zero gaming taxes to Missouri. That means $0 for Missouri schools. Zero…
What It Means
· Sports betting, which many folks assumed would pass, is going to be a dog fight.
· Between these commercials, the US Senate race, and the pro-A3 ad buys, your TVs will soon be full of political ads again.
And
One MOScouter wishes the casinos would do something similar for gray machines. “They have never spent that sort of money to stop gray machines in the state. Buy tv ads and say they’re illegal and provide a hotline to call to report them. Shame prosecutors who don’t go after them. They care waaaaay more about illegal slot machines than they do sports betting, but lawmakers may not take them seriously because they haven’t put their money where their mouth is.”
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 11
Survey conducted September 10 through September 13, 2024. 376 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full report here.
Q1: Candidates in the General Election for Missouri State Senate District 11 are Republican Joe Nicola and Democrat Robert Sauls. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Joe Nicola: 46%
Robert Sauls: 40%
Undecided: 14%
Q2: What is your opinion of John Rizzo?
Favorable: 11%
Unfavorable: 11%
No opinion: 78%
Q3: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 50%
No opinion: 4%
Q4: Generally speaking, are you pro-life or pro-choice?
Pro-life: 44%
Pro-choice: 43%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: 2024 GOP Losers
I asked lobbyists, “Which of these Republican statewide primary losers has the brightest political future?” 26 replies…
RESULTS
1. Jay Ashcroft… 3.8%
2. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 7.7%
3. Bill Eigel… 11.5%
4. Lincoln Hough… 61.5%
5. Holly Rehder… 3.8%
6. Cody Smith… 3.8%
7. Someone else… 7.7%
Sample of Comments
· [Coleman] Has to be someone who has a seat left.
· Eigel exceeded all expectations. Expect him to be the next CD2 congressman.
· Lincoln will be the go to guy for the Kehoe Administration in year one, and then likely have his pick of an appointment and/or support for higher office in 2028.
· Cody can still win a Senate seat eventually.
· Hough has kept his reputation in tact and maintained relationships.
· [Eigel] It pains me to say it, but it's my honest answer.
· [Hough] All of the others are just lesser versions of the folks that won, and mostly folks trying to be “freedom caucus light”. None of them stand a chance against the real thing in this political environment. Lincoln is the only one that is genuine and a “normal conservative” who doesn’t pander to the extreme. In this environment he is not a viable R candidate. When the winds shift, and they always do, all the things that made him unelectable become positives. I don’t think we have heard the last here and four years is a lifetime in politics.
· If you're the Senate Budget Chair with a great relationship with the next Governor you will certainly have a bright political future.
· Will Scharf. He ran into a maybe the toughest incumbent to try and take out. Scharf can stay relevant as a conservate attorney and clearly has a donor base to raise cash.
Who Won the Week?
Deb Lavender – The veteran lawmaker, who spent her time in Jefferson City in the minority party but earned respect across the aisle, spending her final Veto Session as she has her whole career: doing her homework, asking tough questions and trying to hold people accountable.
Maggie Nurrenbern – Leads with fundraising and is on the air first in Senate 17, she’s trying to take this on off the table for Dems so they can focus on other races.
A3 Advocates – Big win at the MO Supreme Court, plus those huge checks keep coming in.
Liz Henderson – Makes the entrepreneurial leap, hanging out a shingle and opening Henderson Consultants.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced judicial appointments to the 16th, 19th, and 24th Judicial Circuits.
· The Honorable Lauren D. Barrett, of Kansas City, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 16th Judicial Circuit.
· Joseph L. Shetler, of Jefferson City, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 19th Judicial Circuit.
· Joseph A. Murray III, of Farmington, will be appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for St. Francois County in the 24th Judicial Circuit.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment (anti-sports betting) - $1,400,000 from Harrah's North Kansas City, LLC.
Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment - $1,300,000 from Tropicana St Louis, LLC.
Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment - $1,300,000 from Isle of Capri Boonville, Inc.
Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment - $156,202 from Caesars Enterprise Services, LLC.
Winning for Missouri Education (pro-sports betting) - $1,500,000 from Betfair Interactive US LLC.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from John and Janell Brunner Family Trust.
NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $6,000 from Missouri Realtors PAC.
Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $15,000 from Anita C Robb.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $25,000 from Joseph Knaebel.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Richard Knaebel.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $5,181 from Nita Herold.
Vote "NO" on 3 - $25,000 from John Conoyer.
Committee to Elect Chase Asmus For Commissioner - $6,713 from Chase Asmus.
International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $125,000 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters DRIVE Committee.
Clay County Democratic Central Committee - $5,750 from Fidelia Chamberlain.
Clay County Democratic Central Committee - $25,000 from Johnson County Democratic Party.
Melesa Johnson for Jackson County Prosecutor - $10,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.
Dave Marshak Election Committee - $6,200 from Citizens United to Back the Blue.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Brad Christ, Jon Dalton, Gene McNary, and Neil Smith.
Sunday: Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder, Ray Bozarth, and Connie Farrow.