MOScout Weekender: Statewide Poll - Hallway Optimistic - Pro-Choice IP in Limbo - WWTW and more…
Pro-Choice IP In Limbo
MOIndy reports on a surprise ruling from Judge Chris Limbaugh saying that the pro-choice initiative petition failed to meet statutory requirements.
Limbaugh seems to understand he won’t be the last word on this… Limbaugh also wrote that while he found a “blatant violation” of state law, he “recognizes the gravity of the unique issues involved in this case, and the lack of direct precedent on point.” As a result, he won’t issue an injunction preventing the amendment from being printed on the ballot until Tuesday to allow time for “further guidance or rulings” from the appeals court.
Remington/MOScout Poll:
Survey conducted September 4 through September 5, 2024. 816 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Find the full report here.
Q1: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Lucas Kunce. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Josh Hawley: 52%
Lucas Kunce: 37%
Undecided: 11%
Q2: The candidates in the General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Kehoe and the Democrat Crystal Quade. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Kehoe: 52%
Crystal Quade: 34%
Undecided: 14%
Q3: The candidates in the General Election for Lieutenant Governor are the Republican Dave Wasinger and the Democrat Richard Brown. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Dave Wasinger: 50%
Richard Brown: 34%
Undecided: 16%
Q4: The candidates in the General Election for Secretary of State are the Republican Denny Hoskins and the Democrat Barbara Phifer. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Denny Hoskins: 50%
Barbara Phifer: 38%
Undecided: 12%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Optimism!
I asked lobbyists, “Early forecast for next session...” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Much more productive than last session… 30.4%
2. Somewhat more productive than last session… 56.5%
3. About the same as last session… 13%
4. Somewhat less productive than last session… 0%
5. Much less productive than last session… 0%
Sample of Comments
· Honeymoon period for new leadership will produce a better session. Patterson will do his best to get House priorities done, and Kehoe has a good relationship with both chambers.
· Anything would be an improvement from last session.
· Eigel leaving makes a big difference.
· Combination of a lot of new faces, leadership and staff lead to a slow start. You still have Mike Moon and remnants of Conservative Caucus to obstruct.
· A large part of me thinks that the session is as bad or worse but I’m going to bet on a Kehoe administration and transition of leadership of the Freedom Caucus from Eigel to Schroer/Brattin to combine to get a little more done, but it’s going to be painful in the Senate.
· The budget may have a greater impact on what happens next session than the freedom caucus.
· Cindy and JP will make a weak leadership duo. All the juice will come from the floor leaders.
· Does the presumptive President of the Senate O'Loughlin present a course for the Senate and is able to lead, or does she have to play the negotiating game to get the Journal approved? We have had 3 years of pilot projects - the data is in - the latter does not work.
· What will have changed?
· Like him or not, Eigel ran the senate.
· Depends on how leadership elections go. Right now, the void that was left by Eigel and Denny (and Schaff, and Crowell, and Lager before them) remains unfilled. But somebody always steps into the role. Who's it going to be and how skilled will they be at doing it?
Who Won the Week?
Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Hannah Kelly – Their seemingly long-shot lawsuit to derail the pro-choice initiative petition scores a win. Will it hold?
Doug Beck – Republicans appear to be conceding Senate 1 to the incumbent despite its partisan index placing it in the swing district category. Two months until Election Day and the Republican candidate there showed $1,000 in his campaign account in the latest filing.
Kelli Jones – The longtime Parson aide lands a deputy commissioner role at DESE, saying she still “has fire” for public service.
Gary Prewitt – The developer scored a win with the Osage River Gaming and Convention IP making the ballot after challenging the SOS’s signature totals.
Find a downloadable version here.
Jeff City Coffee Shop for Sale
Tired of walking the halls? “In a prime location in a downtown area, close to Capital. Two direct competitions in the area, but none with the same menu. With an owner who could take a bigger role the sky is the limit with this location…”
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $1,000,000 from Open Source Action Fund (Washington, DC).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $5,436 from American Civil Liberties Union, Inc. (New York, NY).
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $20,000 from MO Leadership Fund.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Therese Sander.
Safer Families for Missouri - $8,500 from Gary Robb.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Emily Weber, Rex Sinquefield, Shiela Solon, and Kathlyn Fares.
Sunday: Megan Price, and Ryan Hawkins.