MOScout Daily Update: Carpenters Push Libertarian in Senate 30 - Where PACs Are Spending - House 56 Joins Battleground? and more…
Senate 30: Meet Liberty Southwest PAC
A new political action committee that was set up last week has received a $50,000 check from the Carpenters’ union and will add its voice to the high-stakes Senate 30 race.
Liberty Southwest PAC was formed October 19. Its stated purpose is to support the Libertarian Cecil Ince and oppose Republican Melanie Stinnett.
The theory is that the PAC could “support” Ince by amplifying a conservative message from him – and really help Democrat Betsy Fogle. Libertarian candidates are thought to siphon off votes from Republican candidates (much like the Green Party can take votes away from Democrats).
· Fogle’s PAC, Forward PAC, has received $160,000 from the Carpenters’ union this year.
8-Day Reports
Today is the filing deadline for 8-Day Before The Election reports. The cash on-hand numbers will be interesting, but because they’re “rearview mirror” numbers they aren’t too telling. What is interesting to me is where the various PACs are spending. That shows where they think the most competitive races are.
Here are some early filings…
MNEA – The education PAC made independent expenditures in three races…
· House 104 - $20,000 supporting Democrat Tara Murray.
· House 16 - $9,501 supporting Republican Rep. Chris Brown.
· House 17 - $10,369 supporting Republican Rep. Bill Allen.
Missouri Leadership PAC – It’s interesting to see Alex Riley’s PAC spending over $37,000 supporting his re-election. Trump won this district by more than 20 points. You might be speaker-elect, but take nothing for granted.
AshPAC – The House Minority Leader’s PAC gave a lot of campaign contributions but only made two independent expenditures…
· House 132 - $27,600 supporting Rep. Jeremy Dean.
· House 133 - $17,600 supporting Katelyn Zach.
Legio XIII PAC – This is one of J&J Ventures’ PACs. This one spent over $300,000 on radio and digital ads supporting their Senate candidates (or opposing their opponents): JP in Senate 8, and Melanie Stinnett in Senate 30.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC spent or distributed $1.5 million. Mostly it sent money to Will of the People PAC. But it also spent significantly in House 94. It spent over $100,000 supporting Democrat Cathy Summers and opposing Maryellen Murphy.
Missouri House Democrats Action Fund – No surprises here. These are the races we’ve been following closely…
· House 12 - $32,000 supporting Tracey Steele.
· House 16 - $30,000 supporting Dan Kinate.
· House 17 $20,000 supporting Susan Hoisington.
· House 30 - $20,000 supporting Kevin Grover.
· House 96 - $43,000 supporting Matt Vitale.
· House 100 $25,000 supporting Mary Ann Perkins.
· House 105 $40,000 supporting Caterina Clayton.
· House 110 - $10,000 supporting Claire Heinrich.
· House 133 - $17,610 supporting Katelyn Zach.
House Races Update
· House 56 – HRCC is spending money defending this seat. It’s not on my PowerRanking watch list. That shows how the battlefield has expanded. Trump won this district by 19 points in 2024.
· House 94 – Oakville Democrats are running a Facebook ad calling Maryellen Murphy “a puppet” for her husband.
· House 100 – Rep. Phil Oehlerking’s website underwent a revamp in this election. The old “Meet Philip” page was more hard-charging: “Radical liberals are pushing ‘woke’ policies that silence differing opinions and infiltrate our public schools with Critical Race Theory while seeking to ‘cancel’ commonsense values.” The new Meet Philip page is a bit gentler: I believe it's crucial to uphold the principles that have historically driven our prosperity while ensuring policies provide for equal opportunities.
· House 110 – Democrat Claire Heinrich’s literature says “Jeff City sees Wildwood & Clarkson Calley as an endless supply of money to fund their poor choices.”
Turnout Watch
KNOWiNK's Poll Pad leverages its product data into a new tool. You can see the geographic distribution of early voter turnout in St. Louis County. See it here.
OnPoint Politics Projections
I’m not sure this actually means much. OnPoint Politics projects 13 Democratic pickups. Among my watch list, it rates House 106 a toss-up; House 94, 105 and 133 Lean D; and House 16, 17, 30, 96 and 101 as Likely D. This is based on their black-box model so I’m not sure how they’re coming up with this.
Help Wanted
St. Louis City seeks Budget Director. The Budget Director is responsible for leading the City’s annual budget process, including the development of revenue forecasts, financial models, expenditure projections, and systems for monitoring budget performance… Salary: $114,114 - $171,158. See the posting here.
$5K+ Contributions
Liberty Southwest PAC (anti-Stinnett) - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
Stop the Ban - $750,000 from Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Inc (New York, NY).
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $89,056 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $50,000 from American Dream PAC.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $5,205 from David Limbaugh.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $5,205 from Jeff Overstreet.
Forward PAC (pro-Fogle) - $35,000 from Serve Missouri PAC.
Forward PAC - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
Forward PAC - $10,000 from Springfield Building & Construction Trades Council.
Forward PAC - $10,000 from Missouri NEA PAC.
Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $50,000 from Homefront PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Charter Communications.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from CN-MO PAC.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $10,000 from Polsinelli.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $6,000 from Jeanette Prenger.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $10,000 from W Terrence Kilroy.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $15,000 from JMT Holdings LLC.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $25,000 from Financial Holding Corp.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $15,000 from Korb Maxwell.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Freddy Barnes and Jennifer Bukowsky.