RFP For Virtual Schools

The state issued its request for proposals from prospective vendors for possible inclusion in a Qualified Vendors List (QVL) for Missouri Course Access and Virtual School Program (MOCAP)…

From the RFP: “The passage of Senate Bill 603 (2018) modified provisions relating to virtual education and changed the name of the virtual program from Missouri Virtual Instruction Program (MOVIP) to Missouri Course Access and Virtual School Program (MOCAP)... The Missouri Course Access and Virtual School Program (MOCAP) will provide opportunity for students to participate in online courses to Missouri students in grades Kindergarten through 12.  MOCAP is a tuition program that is administered by the Missouri Department of Elementary & Secondary Education (DESE).  DESE hopes that MOCAP contractors will offer courses to over 500 (Local Education Agencies (LEAs) in the State of Missouri…”

New CLEAN Restrictions

Sources in both the House and Senate tells me they won’t be surprised if there’s an uptick in staff turnover ahead of December 6 when CLEAN Missouri takes effect.  That’s because CLEAN also includes staff in its 2-year wait period before lobbying.

From the amendment: “[N]o person serving as a member of or employed by the General Assembly shall act or serve as a paid lobbyist…”

Says one building denizen: “There are several [staffers] who are seeking out jobs. I think you’ll see at least a few of the higher level ones move on…”

Another Greitens’ Scandal?

In a vague, but ominous press release, Governor Mike Parson said that he was requesting an audit of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) Director’s Office after his new appointee Sandy Karsten raised “concerns about questionable use of taxpayer dollars” under previous leadership.

See Parson’s letter to Auditor Nicole Galloway here.  Yikers!

Hegeman for Approps Chair?

Senate watchers believe that Sen. Dan Hegeman is likely to be named Senate Appropriations Chair.  An announcement is expected this week. 

The budget process begins soon as the governor’s office and legislative leaders will sit down to hash out a consensus revenue estimate.  Those discussions will take place against the backdrop of lethargic state tax revenues despite a booming economy.

Don’t Miss Last Friday’s Update

If you were among the scores of last week’s “out of office” replies, click on Friday’s morning update here.  It had a trio of stories: a new Republican campaign committee was formed to revise CLEAN Missouri’s redistricting plan before it takes effect in 2021; Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker announced she’s running for Dem Party Chair; and Kirk Mathews resigned his House seat.  We’ll start with the follow-ups to those items…

Meet Fair Missouri

Fair Missouri was formed.  It’s a campaign committee formed to support “measures to reform Missouri redistricting” on the November 2020 ballot.  Its treasurer is Eddie Greim, a conservative attorney who works on ballot questions.

The Republican State Committee had seeded the new committee with an initial deposit of $150,000.

What It Means

This is an indication that Missouri Republicans are serious about revising the redistricting process contained in the CLEAN Missouri amendment.

There will legal challenges leveled at CLEAN.  But this shows they are already mobilizing to put a proposal on the November 2020 ballot as a back-up plan.

Parson Extends Executive Gift Ban, Lobbying Wait

The press release:  Missouri Governor Mike Parson signed Executive Order 18-10, renewing the administration’s commitment to uphold the highest ethical standards and ensure the needs of our citizens are being served… Executive Order 18-10 revises certain provisions of Executive Order 17-02, updating the order to align directly with current state law. Governor Parson’s executive order upholds the prohibition that no employee of the Governor’s Office shall act as an executive lobbyist until the end of the administration in which he or she served. It also renews the ban on employees of the executive branch receiving gifts from lobbyists. In addition, the executive order updates provisions to provide clarity and consistency for future administrations to adhere to the principled values set by Governor Parson’s administration.

See the executive order here.

Senate 17 in Play?

One reader thinks that Senate 17 will be part of the Senate battleground districts in 2020.  I mentioned Republicans needing to defend Senate 15 and 19.  Senate 17 is held now by Dems after Lauren Arthur beat Kevin Corlew in a special election. 

He writes, “Arthur is most definitely vulnerable in 2020. She won a special election in a June off-year election. If that election had been in November, I believe the Republican would have won. With Donald Trump on the ticket and increased voter intensity on all sides- that will be a fight.  And if you look at Ridgeway and Silvey, they both won it 52-48 (with the exception of 2016 when Silvey didn’t have a real race.) It’s a tight district… and Arthur could get Corlew again or Jerry Nolte, who is fresh off a second countywide win for Presiding Commissioner. Credible either way…”

It’s a classic swing district, with a Dem tilt perhaps.  Trump did win it in 2016 (52.4% – 47.6%), but Jason Kander bested Roy Blunt (55.5% – 45.5%) and Chris Koster beat Eric Greitens (52% – 48%).

Extreme Risk Protection Orders

Rep. Deb Lavender tweets that she and Sen. Jill Schupp will introduce a bill next year on “extreme risk protection orders.”

Here’s a Detroit, Michigan story on the issue…

A 25-year-old man from Southeast Michigan is an example of a serious problem in the country. Mathew is the type of person law enforcement officials are worried about, even though he hasn't committed a serious crime…

Treasurer Sweepstakes

One reader writes: I am a little surprised that Former Senator Dave Pearce's name hasn't been mentioned. Former banker, 6 years in the House, 8 years in the Senate, served with the Governor, and almost 2 years as Deputy Treasurer.

The answer is that Team Parson has pretty much decided that they’re not going to appoint another white male to their statewide ticket.  So Pearce, despite political and financial experience, isn’t on the list.

And

I’m told that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is not interested in returning to her former office.  She’s apparently has the “been there, done that” t-shirt.

Miles’ Missouri Map

The singular J Miles Coleman has a cool map of Missouri (see it here).  It shows the relative county-level performance by Josh Hawley, compared to President Donald Trump’s performance in 2016.  The red is where Hawley declined less than his statewide underperformance of Trump.  The blue is where he declined more.  “The comparisons help to illustrate the places where Trump may be more popular than other Republicans, and where other Republicans may have more strength than Trump.”

To my eyes, the most obvious patterns in the map are Hawley outperforming Trump in the bootheel, with McCaskill picking up ground in all the counties surrounding St. Louis.

Pickel Gets ATT Job

Chris Pickel is the new Craig Unruh.  Unruh led AT&T’s state legislative affairs for several years before being promoted a few months ago to president of AT&T’s state operations.

Pickel has served as AT&T’s Regional Director, handling governmental and external affairs in the St Louis region for a number of years.  He’s getting promoted to the state level, so we’ll be seeing him under the dome in the months to come.

Transportation Talk

I figured that transportation funding talk would hibernate for at least a year or two, but…

·         Exiting Rep. Kevin Corlew in the Post-Dispatch says “assigning to road projects some of a big increase in state revenue considered likely to occur following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last June that widened the reach of state taxes on online purchases.”

·         Sen. Wayne Wallingford, in SEMissourian, says “lawmakers could consider raising the fuel tax incrementally and keep it under the Hancock Amendment threshold. A 2-cent increase in the fuel tax could generate an estimated $80 million annually.”

·         Also in SE Missourian, Rep. Rick Francis says “lawmakers should consider raising vehicle license and registration fees. Such a move would not only help fund road and bridge projects, but also make it easier to maintain license offices in rural areas.”

·         And Kathy Swan suggests, “the Legislature should consider going to voters with a transportation tax that includes a sunset provision.”

What It Means

Despite the latest tax rejection from the voters, it sounds like this issue will be in the mix again this year.  And the governor’s office is likely to be neck-deep in the discussions as it remains a priority for Parson.

MO in Fifth Risk

Over the weekend, I had a chance to read Michael Lewis’ new book, The Fifth Risk (see it here).  It’s harrowing account of the lackadaisical Trump transition team, and the need to take governing seriously.  Missouri has several cameos in the book…

·         Former Kit Bond staffer, Brian Klippenstein of Protect the Harvest, tries to help Trump transition in Department of Agriculture.

·         The Joplin Tornado was a catalyzing event for Department of Commerce staffers to make tornado warnings more effective

·         And Ferguson is mentioned in the potential to use data concerning police-citizen interaction to improve public safety.

Does Parson Get a Credible GOP Challenger?

Maybe some huff and puff, but I doubt anything actually materializes.

Who’s on Dem List for 2020?

No it’s not too early; it might even be a little late…

·         Sen. Scott Sifton has been considering a gubernatorial run. 

·         Supporters of Auditor Nicole Galloway would probably see her as first in line for that ballot spot – if she wants it.

·         Russ Carnahan, who helped House Dems in their fundraising and outreach efforts this cycle, is said to be open to a 2020 statewide run.

·         But one savvy Dem tells me that his party should be seeking a candidate from outside the political bubble, for example a woman business leader.  Such a person would be without the baggage of a “career politician.”  They’d have a business resume that plays to the Dem Party’s strength: economic issues (anti-RTW, boasting minimum wage); and they’d have a demographic profile to seize on Republican weakness with college-educated women.

Demoralized Dems

As Missouri Democrats pick up the smashed shards of their ‘blue wave’ dream and start to piece a 2020 plan together, one of the most sobering facts they’ll have to confront is the shocking margins by which Republicans won a lot of state senate districts on Tuesday.

Consider:

·         Senate 22 was supposed to be one of the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbents.  But Paul Wieland finished with 58%.  JeffCo essentially matched St. Charles as Sen. Bob Onder won with 59.7%. 

·         Senate 16 and Senate 18 had Democratic senators just a dozen years ago and now they seem utterly out of reach to Dems.  In Senate 16, Dems fielded a legitimate candidate who worked hard, built an organization, raised money, had a message and fit the district.  And still he was crushed by 40 points, 70% to 30%.  Similarly, Cindy O’Laughlin in Senate 18 won 70% of the vote.

And Mountainous GOP Senate Margins Elsewhere

Senate 6 (Mike Bernskoetter): 73.2% 

Senate 10 (Jeanie Riddle): 70.3%

Senate 12 (Dan Hegeman): 72.5%

Senate 20 (Eric Burlison): 73.9%

Senate 26 (Dave Schatz): 64%

Senate 28 (Sandy Crawford): 79.2%

Senate 32 (Bill White): 73.7%           

Jefferson County = All Red

Senate 22 wasn’t close in the end.  Incumbent Sen. Paul Wieland romped to a twenty-point win over Democrat Robert Butler (58% to 38%).  But that race was just one of many data points showing Republicans have fired up their hold on the once-battleground Jefferson County.

Josh Hawley beat Claire McCaskill in JeffCo 54% to 42%.  Dennis Gannon easily defeated Jeff Roorda for Jefferson County Executive 58% to 42%.  And Republicans re-took House 97 from Democrats as well as House 118 where Ben Harris is term-limited.

Maybe

The Dems high-water mark in JeffCo for the foreseeable future will have been Jason Kander’s 44% in 2016….

What To Watch For Tonight

·         Were Democrats able to use the President Donald Trump to energize their base and bring in new voters from the suburbs?  That’ll impact the turnout and outcome of the US Senate race, but also a shift in the state legislative seats.  The conventional wisdom now is that Republicans will pick up the last remaining exurban seats this cycle, but their hold on the suburbs will start to fray.  We’ll see…

·         If voters distinguish (as the MOScout poll suggests) between Amendment 2 medical marijuana and Amendment 3 medical marijuana, some think ballot position may have a lot to do with it.  The theory is that folks in favor of MMJ will vote yes when they first encounter it, then read a little closer with the second proposal and reject the higher tax.  If that happens give the props to Amendment 2 campaigners who gamed out that scenario months ago and hurried to turn in their signatures before the competing IP.

·         The biggest earthquake could be the passage of CLEAN Missouri which would overhaul the redistricting process, BUT there’ll be litigation from opponents if it passes, AND – as I wrote last week – Republicans are already plotting a possible counter proposal to substitute it.