MOScout Weekly Poll: St. Louis County Poll

Survey conducted May 1 through May 2, 2019. 1,031 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.05%.

Which do you think is more corrupt: local government or state government?

Local government is more corrupt: 34%

State government is more corrupt: 29%

Not sure: 36%

Driving Next Week: GM Jumps to Front of the Line

Legislative leaders indicated that they expect the Department of Economic Development to be working all weekend to hammer out a package of incentives to potentially bring a new huge investment to General Motor’s auto plant in Wentzville.

We’ll see it added to one of the many economic development bills already working their way through the process as early as Monday.

It hops to the front of the line of priority legislation.

Driving Last Night

The Senate had another long night.  Finding a compromise on Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer’s SB 224 around 2:30 in the morning.  Feels like we’ll be having regular late nights for the remainder of session.

The Unelecteds Club

Sam Page has taken over as the county executive of the largest county in the state.  He wasn’t elected to that position.

Neither was Governor Mike Parson, or Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, or Attorney General Eric Schmitt, or State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick…

The upcoming 2020 cycles will put all these unelected incumbents on the ballot.  It will be interesting to see how they fare.  For the two (Parson and Page) who took over after a scandal, there’s an immediate sense of relief and a honeymoon period.  But that will fade as opposition campaigns rev up.

RFP for Medicaid Assessment

An RFP was issued “to assess the current Missouri Medicaid program organization and management structures and deliver recommendations for a future Missouri Medicaid organizational model.”This looks like the next step as the legislature attempts to overhaul Missouri Medicaid system

House 99 in Play?

I had a couple of people – from both sides of aisle – tell me that I shouldn’t write off Democrats’ chances in the House 99 special election this November.  They say…

·         Special elections are always dependent on turn-out, and odd bounces can happen.

·         This district can swing.  Yes, it’s been represented by Republican state reps, but... it voted for Claire McCaskill in 2018.

·         It’s a suburban district which could be subject to mood changes depending on the most recent act in Trump’s circus.

Roaring Revenues?

Once more with feeling: these numbers can be volatile.  But…. as of close of business Thursday, state tax receipts were $210 million ahead of last year, up 2.80%.

This is washing like a wave of great relief over budget-makers in the capitol.

Suddenly Flush?

State tax receipts continue their hot streak. As of close of business April 24, revenues are now $153 million above this point last fiscal year (+2%).

Still, despite the booming influx of checks, Minority Leader Crystal Quade cautions – as others have – that the last few months of FY2018 were very strong, so it’s too soon to celebrate.

Brunner Contra Plocher

Former statewide candidate John Brunner has stayed out of the limelight in recent years, but on Facebook he lashed out at Rep. Dean Plocher for being too soft on the 2nd Amendment.  See it here.

Dean, The problem with “Freedom” is that is comes with risks….and accountability. But if you eliminate risks and accountability, through government control/legislation you can only do so by taking away freedom.

So what is your vision of America, Dean… Land of the free or home of the safe?

Cannabis Lobby Day

Missouri Cannabis Industry Association is having their lobby day today.  According to an email blast, among the bills on their radar is SB 5 because it could block marijuana legalization down the road.  “[S]ponsored by Sen. David Sater is a terrible bill. It would make it much harder for Missouri citizens to place any issue on the ballot and much harder to pass a Constitutional amendment like Amendment 2. Many of us hope to see adult use legalization of marijuana placed on the Missouri ballot within the next few years. If SB 5 passes, it will be almost impossible to do that.”

Budget Week in the Senate

With the legislature off yesterday, it’s a short week.  The Senate is expected to focus on passing the budget this week, giving the two bodies time for conferencing and compromising ahead of their May 10 constitutional deadline.

Sen. Cindy O'Laughlin on Facebook writes… “Senator Roy Blunt visited the Missouri senate this week and promoted Missouri implementing PDMP (something pushed as the answer to drug use but literally nobody has evidence to substantiate this claim.) On the other hand we do know illicit drugs are coming across our southern border along with a wave of immigrants that is nearing crisis levels. HOW ABOUT I VISIT D.C. NEXT WEEK AND RECOMMEND WE BUILD A BORDER WALL?”

PDMP Debate Revived

Senator Roy Blunt was in the building this week.  And one of his pitches to legislators was to finally pass a prescription drug monitoring program.  It seems to give a boost to that piece of legislation.

The Senate’s Conservative Caucus has minced no words saying they would oppose a PDMP.  But Senate leadership outlined the pitch they’ll make why conservatives would be well-served to consider the legislation: so many Missouri counties have joined St. Louis County’s PDMP that it covers 80-85% of the MO population.  In other words, there’s already a de facto PDMP.  They can use this legislation to make improvements and add safeguards – or they can live with the status quo.  But either way they’re not “stopping” a PDMP.  It already exists.

Senate 29: Count Cole In

One well-placed source says definitely that David Cole is “all in” for Senate 29.  The current incumbent, Sen. David Sater, is termed. 

Cole is an attorney, and former chair of the Republican State Party.  Other names have been mentioned for the seat – like Rep. Mike Moon, for example.  But Cole becomes the immediate front-runner as he will be able to raise significant money, and quickly corral community endorsements.

Daily Revenue Watch

As of close of business April 15, state tax receipts were $236 million behind last year, or -3.36%.

And

Lobbyist/budget guru Jim Moody has started a subscription service, The Moody Report, which tracks state budget information.  See it here.  Moody is an Ashcroft administration alum, where he served as commissioner of OA, and budget director.

Senate Fireworks

Sen. Mike Cierpiot, whose SB 56 has been stymied all session by the Conservative Caucus, unleashed a critique of those senators yesterday on the Senate floor.

He expressed his frustrations, “I’ve made efforts to reach compromise – thought we had agreement – then watched that agreement evaporate. I am finished with that approach with that group unless they change.”

Daily Revenue Watch

·         Close of business Thursday April 11: still down $255 million, -3.68%. 

·         On Twitter Rep. Kip Kendrick says he’s “cautiously optimistic revenue rebounds.”  He thinks “if so, expect Senate to move forward with current FY20 spending plan. [But] if revenue does not recover adequately, then Senate will likely cut spending in FY20 budget. FY19 withholds are still possible as well. Withholds would be fairly unprecedented this late in fiscal year. Would be painful and would likely target higher ed.”

·         Count me among the “soberly pessimistic.”  I guess it could happen, but I’ve never seen a $250 million spike.

Getting Passed Around: Let Parson Be Parson

Phill Brooks writes in the Columbia Tribune (see it here):  Parson’s handling of [bonding and DOR] is a complete opposite of the man I covered when he was in the Missouri Senate.

Time for Digital “Paid For”?

This recent Missouri Ethic Commission decision to dismiss a complaint was based, in part, on the fact that “Missouri statues do not require ‘paid-for-by’ disclosures on digital media, such as Facebook…”

Maybe it’s time to revise our ethics law to add a “paid for” requirement to digital ads…

Senate Thaw

The freeze that has kept the Senate from passing several of the governor’s priorities appears to be thawing…

• Yesterday they perfected Sen. Wayne Wallingford’s SB 184 which makes changes to the Missouri Works program.  It’s scaled-back version of Sen. Mike Cierpiot’s SB 56 which has been repeatedly filibustered. 

• And there’s rumors of that additionally a version of bonding will pass today…