MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 30

Here are the toplines for this week’s poll.  It shows Lincoln Hough with a lead in Senate 30, though Claire McCaskill is neck and neck with Josh Hawley in the district. 

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Claire McCaskill. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 48%

Undecided: 5%

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Lincoln Hough and the Democrat Charlie Norr. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Lincoln Hough: 48%

Charlie Norr: 42%

Undecided: 10%

We Are Missouri Sitting on $525K…

Yesterday candidate and campaigns filed their “30 Day After the primary” finance reports, basically covering the month of August.

We Are Missouri, organized labor’s campaign committee to defeat Prop A, showed it raised $1.3 million and spent $1.2 million during that period.  It and now has $525,236 on-hand.  I previously wrote about talking to a union source who indicated there were discussions occurring about how to use the money.  The best guess is that they will use at least some of this leftover war-chest to target anti-labor legislators. The feeling is that if no political consequences are seen for passing right to work, the Republican-dominated legislature might be emboldened to revisit the issue sooner rather than later.

Budget Hole Emerging?

Ten weeks into the new fiscal year a disturbing trend is impacting state revenue.  Individual income tax receipts are lagging.  In August they declined 1.69% compared to August 2017.  As of the close of business Tuesday, individual income tax receipts were 6.5% lower than a year ago, $64 million less. 

This is surprising considering that the economy is at full employment.  One would expect to see gains in individual income tax receipts.  Furthermore, the stock market remains near highs, and capital gains can sometimes drive tax receipts as well.

And sales tax receipts are still showing growth – up 5.25% over last year at this time.

Perhaps there’s some anomaly to account for this.  But to seeing a hole this size, this early is concerning.

MO Poll: Educated Women Down on Trump

This poll was being passed around the internets yesterday.  I found the Trump approval numbers interesting.  They show a pattern emerging here in Missouri which mirrors national findings.

The Washington Post wrote about this a month ago.  See it here.  And see the stunning chart that accompanies it here. 

It shows how white men without college degrees fled the Democratic Party in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama.  They haven’t returned.  And now white women with college degrees are exiting the Republican Party with the election of Donald Trump.

This poll finds a similar demographic split in Missouri.

Trump’s approval among white men without college degrees is net +26 (56% approve, 30% disapprove); and his approval among white women with college degrees is nearly opposite: -16 (38% approve, 54% disapprove).

Sixteen Thirty Fund Gives $3M to Minimum Wage Campaign

Sixteen Thirty Fund – a Washington DC dark money organization on the left side of the political spectrum – sent a $3 million check to Raise Up Missouri over the weekend.  That’s the campaign committee for the November ballot issue to raise the minimum wage.  They had previously invested $500,000 in the campaign.

Politico did a story on Sixteen Thirty Fund last month.  They have been active all across the country.  See it here.  See the Sixteen Thirty Fund website here; it will tell you nothing.

I polled the minimum wage issue last month and it appears to be in good shape – especially now with its budget filled out.

Introducing MOScout’s “Hallway Index”

This is a new feature.  It will normally be in Saturday’s Weekender, but because of Labor Day, I’m unveiling it today.

Each week I will email a question to a “focus group” of about 30 hallway sources to get their read of a situation.  Hopefully it will provide us with a vibe for the mood of the lobbying community.  Whereas polls provide a snapshot of voters’ opinions, I think a survey of these individuals – immersed in politics – may yield a more insightful point of view.  We’ll seeeeee.

This week I asked: Will Claire McCaskill win re-election?  26 responses….

Highly Likely: 7.7%

Somewhat Likely: 65.4%

Somewhat Unlikely: 19.2%

Highly Unlikely: 7.7%

No Opinion: 0%

House 102 Redo?

The losing Republican candidate in House 102 has filed a lawsuit for an Election Day do-over. 

Bryan Cooper, who lost to Ron Hicks by 4 votes, is the plaintiff of the lawsuit.  Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has previously acknowledged that one polling place was locked for the first half-hour of operations.

From Casenet: “There will be an evidence hearing held on September 4, 2018 and the court anticipates ruling at the close of the hearing.  Any issues of a recount of the votes in the election are being conducted, by statute, by the secretary of state and are not part of this proceeding.  If a new election is held, it shall be conducted on September 18, 2018…”

Kander Settles Some Scores

I just finished Jason Kander’s book, Outside the Wire.  It’s a quick and fun read, written in the conversational tone of a state rep who might slide into a seat across from you at the Truman Hotel’s breakfast buffet – back when the lights were still on there.  It’s half “How To,” half memoir, but all around lots of fun especially when he throws a few jabs at MO politicos…. Kander describes Mark Parkinson as a lightweight who doodled his way through budget briefings, and talks about how Kerry Messer wasn’t someone he could ever trust.

Buy it here.

McDowell Might Escape Challenge

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft certified the primary election yesterday.   According to Missouri law, the opponents of Republican Auditor nominee Saundra McDowell now have five days to challenge her qualifications.

I think there’s a very real possibility that she escapes that fate.  It seems to me – talking to Dems – that they’re inclined to prefer McDowell to a hand-picked, party-vetted candidate.  In particular McDowell’s history of financial troubles gives them a good line of attack, and folks think there will be more embarrassments in her full opposition research folder.

eMailbag on CD-2 Poll

“That's not a great poll for Wagner. I think it's going to be more like +6 Republican instead of +9 like the poll and if undecideds break toward the challenger....and Democratic turnout is higher she could actually lose this thing. More likely it will be 51-49 Wagner but she is not out of the woods.”

MOScout Weekly Poll: 2nd Congressional District

This week’s poll looks at CD-2 where Congresswoman Ann Wagner faces Democrat Cort VanOstran. 

Dems have been poking me that this is one to watch.  The suburban district is theoretically where educated women, repulsed by President Donald Trump, are most likely to abandon the GOP.  (Here’s the fascinating chart of polling.  It shows white men without college degrees ditching the Dem Party in 2008 when Obama was elected.  And now the same phenomenon occurring with white degreed women due to Trump).

This poll doesn’t show any tsunami coming to radically change the nature of this district however.

Turf War: DNR Sues AHC

On Tuesday, the Department of Natural Resources sued the Administrative Hearing Commission in an extraordinary case of an executive branch fight going to court. This all started with a permit…

DNR issued a permit for a CAFO (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation, allowing the number of animals to exceed the previous 999 limit.  It was met with opposition.  See a news article here.   And about a month later it was formally challenged by neighbors, including a group that organized as Lone Jack Neighbors for Responsible Agriculture, LLC.  See their website here.

They appealed DNR’s issuance of a permit to the AHC which found in their favor and issued a stay of the permit.  DNR’s crying foul…

Latest Residency Drip

Kansas City reports the latest on the Saundra McDowell residency controversy (see it here): that her she and her husband claimed to be residents of Virginia on their marriage license.

That means she legally attested to being a resident of Virginia and Kansas during the 10-year period that she was supposed to be a Missouri resident.

But

This – like yesterday’s drip – isn’t a killer, it’s just a reminder that Republicans have an unvetted statewide candidate on their hands.And that makes people nervous because they don’t know what other pieces of information will be coming out.

Yesterday the Post-Dispatch reported (see it here) that “Saundra McDowell was living in Mission, Kan., when she was sued by a furniture company for failing to pay $698 plus 18 percent interest after entering into a contract in June 2012…

First, it doesn’t help McDowell’s legal case if someone sues. 

Second, it doesn’t help McDowell’s campaign as we’re entering “drip, drip, drip” territory with this controversy. 

But third, and maybe most importantly at this stage, this hurts McDowell with the Republican powerbrokers and donor class because as one building denizen texted me: “She has NEVER mentioned living in Kansas.  I really wonder if the GOP wasn’t told either.” 

One reader took note of the check from the Mike Parson-aligned Unifying Missouri PAC to HRCC in yesterday’s list.  It was for $50K.  “That’s a huge number for a governor. Nixon never did that and Blunt helped a little after he decided not to run, but not even at that level.”

Of course the reader didn’t even compare to Greitens.

The PAC is not directed by Parson, but it’s interesting that “Team Parson” is making it a priority to protect the legislative majority right now, instead of increase their 2020 war-chest.

We’re in full-on fundraising season right now.

Tonight a firecracker is scheduled at State Treasurer Eric Schmitt’s house for Rep. Jean Evans.  On the host committee: Gregg Keller, Mike Gibbons, Sue and Mike Allen, Jeff Aboussie, David Winton, Todd Randall, Eldon Weinhaus, Nexus Group, MO Soybean Association, J&J Enterprises, Well Care, St. Louis Realtors, and Major Brands.

Tomorrow night, another humdinger…. This one at the home of Nick and Tyan Ragone.  It’s for Josh Hawley with special guests Jack Danforth, and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe.  Others on that host committee besides GOP bundler Nick Ragone are Tony Terisgni, and Gregg and Lori Keller.

Welcome to the MOScout Weekender…

MOScout Weekly Poll

As we start to look to the general elections, I started with what’s considered to be the most competitive state senate seat – Jefferson County’s Senate 22.

Here are the toplines….

Q: Do you think Missouri is heading in the right direction or do you think it is going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 41%

Wrong track: 38%

Unsure: 21%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President of the United States?

Approve: 52%

Disapprove: 43%

Unsure: 5%

House GOP Summer Caucus Talk

One of the purposes of this summer gathering is to start coalescing around legislative priorities for the coming year.

As has been noted before, while the Greitens drama was unfolding week by week, the legislature, under the direction of Speaker Todd Richardson and Senate Pro Tem Ron Richard, had a banner year.  So what’s next?...

Two big topics folks will be talking about: reworking the sales tax collection to include taxing internet purchases; and tort reform. 

House Republican Summer Caucus Talk

A big rumor making its way around yesterday, sending tremors through the political world – especially labor… Word is that MOChamber CEO Dan Mehan and businessman Greg Hoberock will be addressing House Republicans at their summer caucus this weekend.  While it’s unclear what they’ll say, they are slated to be “presenting on right to work.”  They could just be talking about how to “message” the landslide loss of the issue.  But some are nervous that they’ll be pitching the idea of re-passing the legislation….

Leadership Race Talk

I haven’t done full spreadsheets looking at leadership races yet.  However in conversations over the course of the last week a few consensus opinions are emerging among building denizens.

Sen. Caleb Rowden is now considered the clear favorite to win Floor Leader in the Senate; and Rep. Travis Fitzwater is expected to win the Pro Tem position in the House.

Additionally – this wouldn’t qualify as “consensus” – it does seem to me that Sen. Bob Onder is probably pleased with the Senate primary outcomes; it may have provided a nice boost to his Senate Pro Tem bid.