Thomas to Star

Crystal Thomas tweets that she’ll be “heading back to Missouri to cover #moleg for The Kansas City Star later this month.”  See it here.

Education Day Canceled

After all the build-up, the House didn’t take up the charter school expansion bill yesterday.  Champions of the bill think they have 82 votes for passage within reach, but there’s no margin of error.  One supportive representative was missing because of a family funeral, another left after taking a fall.  The issue will be back for sure, but they need all their votes present.

Auditor’s Note on STL City-County Merger

The Auditor’s Office released their fiscal note for the initiative petition to merge St. Louis’ City and County.  “Individual St. Louis County municipalities expect decreased revenues to exceed savings with a total unknown impact. The overall savings for the new metropolitan city is unknown but estimated to be as much as $1 billion annually by 2032. State revenue is estimated to increase between $2.5 million to $7 million annually by 2032.”

President Donald Trump will own the spotlight for the next eighteen months, and will likely be the defining issue in 2020.

Republicans will have to decide if they’re conservatives, if they’re constitutionalists, or if they’re Trumpists and will stick with the president regardless of what the next year and a half brings.

Rep. Shamed Dogan, has decided.  He tweets “A vote to support President Trump's emergency declaration is a vote for the next Democratic President's emergency declaration on the Green New Deal. Hope Senators @HawleyMO & @RoyBluntMO vote to defend Congress' authority against executive overreach.”

For now, Trump is above water in Missouri.  Remington had his Missouri approval at 53% in the middle of February and Survey America had it at 53.9% around the same time.  And inside those numbers, he’s very popular among Missouri Republicans, like 89% approval.

The Week Ahead…

Grab some popcorn because things could be interesting this week in the Senate.  At last Thursday’s press availability, Floor Leader Caleb Rowden said that education reform would probably be coming up for debate soon.

He may have been referring to Sen. Andrew Koenig’s SB 160 that establishes education saving accounts, or Sen. Bill Eigel’s SB 292 which would expand where charter schools can operate.

February Revenue Numbers

The February state numbers show revenue from individual income tax flat with February 2018.  But the amount that the state expended on refunds dropped 16%.  That together with strong sales tax growth of 10.5% brought the net revenue for the month to a positive 17.9% compared to a year ago.

A lot of eyes are watching that refund number because the anticipation is that the tax cut snafu is depressing the refunds that Missourians will receive.

Schatz’ Anti-CLEAN

Filed yesterday (the last day to file bills) was SJR 29.  Its sponsor is Pro Tem Dave Schatz, signaling that this is potentially THE vehicle for the anti-CLEAN effort.

This version is very simple.  It would swap out the $5 lobbyist gift limit, replacing it with a total ban.  This is the “ballot candy” that will be popular with voters.

And it would re-order the criteria by which the district lines are drawn.  CLEAN prioritized “fairness” and “competitiveness.”  This SJR would put contiguousness and compactness ahead of those characteristics.

Why It Matters

This is likely a “go to the mattresses” issues for Senate Dems.  It’s a filibuster-PQ timebomb.  In other words you want to get your bills passed before this thing goes off…

Eigel Files Alternative to Bonding

Sen. Bill Eigel filed SJR 27.  It establishes the "Bridge and Road Authorization Trust Fund."  This apparently is the Conservative Caucus’ alternative to Governor Mike Parson’s bonding proposal to fund bridge repair across the state.

Senate Filibuster

Senate Democrats filibustered all night long as it worked through Sen. Ed Emery’s tort reform bill.

Moments ago they resolved their differences, and the filibuster ended with the bill being perfected.   Sen. Scott Sifton was the lead Democratic negotiator.  He thanked Emery, as well as Sen. Tony Leutkemeyer and Floor Leader Caleb Rowden for their efforts to find resolution.

Jami Hits Reed

In a new TV ad (see it here) Sen. Jamilah Nasheed calls crime her “#1 priority.” The ad features the incumbent, Lewis Reed, saying that crime is not his responsibility, making him look ineffectual on a top issue for city voters. The election is one week from today.

And

8-Day COH numbers…

Reed: not filed yet.

Nasheed: $129,718

Megan Green: $13,114

Missouri Opportunity PAC

Friday Missouri Opportunity PAC reported a $250,000 check from Rex Sinquefield.  This is a pro-Eric Schmitt PAC.  I’ve written before about how most serious state senate and statewide candidates have independent PACs established to raise money in large donation amounts that their candidate committees are unable to accept due to contribution limits.

MO Opportunity had $122,834 on-hand as of their January quarter report.   With Sinquefield’s check, it has reported $290K in large contributions this month.

Meet Show Me Integrity

I wrote this week about the formation of two new non-profits: Show Me Integrity Education Fund, a 501c(3) and Show Me Integrity, a 501c(4).

The name on the paperwork is Robert Schaaf.  He is the son of former Sen. Rob Schaaf.

Show Me Integrity appears to be a successor organization to CLEAN Missouri.  See their website here.  Nimrod Chapel’s welcome video says that the organization will be doing the same type of work as CLEAN.

They are holding an event tomorrow in St. Louis.  See it here.

The End of the Honeymoon?

Governor Mike Parson blasted the legislature in a statement to the Post-Dispatch, defending the embattled Director of the Department of Revenue, and dismissing legislators’ concerns as “political grandstanding.” It was Greitens-esque.And seemed to unify the Republicans and Democrats in the House.

The Senate’s Intra-GOP Split

We’re early into the session, and the Senate’s coalition lines can shift depending on issue, but… right now it looks like one particular rift may shape the landscape of the body over the next couple of months: The Conservative Caucus vs The Rebels.

While this is a GOP-on-GOP rumble, it’s still quite different from previous session which have been defined by a battle between Republican leadership and Republican dissidents.

It’s yet to be seen how leadership will handle this split.

Walsh’s Anti-Merger Resolution

Sen. Gina Walsh’s SCR 1 had its hearing in the Senate Rules Committee yesterday.  This resolution proclaims that the General Assembly opposes “any statewide vote or legislative mandate on governmental reorganization regarding the City of St. Louis and St. Louis County and the municipalities.”  A parade of St. Louis County municipal officials testified in favor of the resolution.  St. Louis Regional Chamber opposed the measure.  Pro Tem Dave Schatz, who represents part of St. Louis County, seemed sympathetic saying he’d heard from constituents there who were concerned about the merger proposal.

Rappelling, Parson Style

The press release: Join us as Governor Mike Parson, Director of Agriculture Chris Chinn, DESE Assistant Commissioner Blaine Henningsen, and Missouri FFA leadership proclaim February 16-23, 2019, as National FFA Week in Missouri… Immediately preceding the proclamation ceremony at 11:30 a.m., Governor Parson will be driving a tractor to work in honor of the FFA tradition where students drive their tractors to school during National FFA Week.

Coming soon are a few topics which will reveal a bit more about the character of this Senate.

Sen. Ed Emery’s tort reform bill and Pro Tem Dave Schatz’ resolution to enable the governor’s bonding plan may see floor time this week.

Both could produce some interesting debating coalitions.  Often Republicans with a legal background balk at tort reform legislation which isn’t nuanced enough.  And Parson’s debt-for-bridge-repair might find some opposition from the Senate’s Conservative Caucus.  We’ll see.

Survey conducted February 13 through February 14, 2019. 876 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Margin of Error is +/-3.4%.

There is a proposal for Missouri to issue $351 million in debt to pay for the repair of 250 bridges across the state. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?

Approve: 71%

Disapprove: 12%

Not sure: 17%

CLEAN Battle: Watch the Money

Yesterday CLEAN Missouri received a $85K infusion from their big out-of-state donor, Action Now.

We’ll see if this becomes a consistent pattern of funding as CLEAN supporters prepare for the coming anti-CLEAN fight in 2020.

Republicans looking to overturn/modify the ballot question believe that they will have financial support this time from uber-donor David Humphreys.  We’ll see….

DOR: Revenues “Stabilizing”

Department of Revenue director Joel Walters told the House’s Government Oversight Committee that state revenues were “stabilizing.”  Tax returns were coming in later than previous years and refunds were lower.  Both those indicators are consistent with what he expects given the upheaval in the tax code.  Walters still thinks that the state will hit its consensus revenue number.