Mission Creep in the GOP?

The series of polls I’ve done to baseline the Republican Senate primaries all show exceptional support for President Donald Trump with Republican primary voters.

It’s interesting because Trump’s politics continue to veer from the conservative principles which used to dominate the Republican Party.

Driving the Day

St. Louis County takes another step as it tries to move past the Stenger days.  It’s special election day.  Voters will fill the vacancies on the County Council.  Up for election are District 1 (Hazel Erby) and District 2 (Sam Page’s old seat).  Democrats Rita Heard Days and Kelli Dunaway are the favorites.

Gossip from HRCC’s Summer Caucus

Tidbits from the House Republican Campaign’s Summer Caucus last weekend in Kansas City….

• As I wrote Saturday, a special session running concurrent with veto session is a real possibility.

• Rumors have the governor appointing some term-limited legislators to state positions between now and the start of session…

More Stenger Scarface Quotes

Post-Dispatch reports on the Feds’ sentencing memo for Steve Stenger.  See it here.  It’s full of crazy, profane quotes.  But honestly this St. Louis County scandal hasn’t produced any quotes as snappy and memorable as our Jeff City brew-ha-has… “Green balloons,” “Munich is a cool place,” “Eric, why you gettin’ all yelly,” “Proper pull-up,” etc….

Nothing here that will enter the lobbyist lexicon, unfortunately.

Shippy to Campaign

Team Parson announced that Steele Shippy was moving from the government side to the campaign side.  Shippy has been serving as communications director in the governor’s office.  He’s now taking the helm as campaign manager for Governor Mike Parson’s re-election effort.

What It Means

·         The first of likely several moves we’ll see in the next couple of months as Parson moves toward a war-footing ahead of next year’s campaign.

·         Look for similar moves from Team Galloway, probably soon after or in conjunction with a mid-August official entry announcement.

Economist: MO Should Expand Medicaid

Springfield News Leader reports that “Missouri's low taxes and diverse manufacturing sector are strong economic assets for the Show-Me State, but that the state lags in educational achievements and that embracing Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act would likely lower health care premiums…

O’Laughlin on Tax Credits

Sen. Cindy O'Laughlin on Facebook before chairing the first meeting of the Interim Committee on Tax Credit Efficiency and Reform, writes: I think there's a case to be made for economic incentive but the reality is massive amounts of tax credits result in a consequence which is lower general revenue… When you look at the picture in totality it's startling. I'd like to see greater accountability in the tax credit system and I'd like to see the credits scaled back. Scaled back a lot….

Medicaid Expansion Committee Formed

In the new committees, there’s a campaign committee formed to support a Medicaid expansion ballot question.  The treasurer is Joe Pierle. He’s the executive director of Missouri Primary Care Association.  See his bio here.

Huge Turnout Coming in 2020?

From Bruce Mehlman’s visual-storybook update on the 2020 election (see it here)…

If actual voting once again exceeds enthusiasm to vote, expect highest turnout since 1896 (which was 79.6%)

Ryan Myers formed a candidate committee (Myers For Missouri) to run for Senate 9 as a Democrat.  The current incumbent, Sen. Kiki Curls, is termed.  Myers is an alderman in Raytown.  See his bio here.

$$$ Start to Flow into Galloway PAC

In the large contributions, there’s a spurt of big money heading into Keep Government Accountable.  That’s the PAC aligned with Auditor Nicole Galloway.

A little over $50,000 came in from unions and a law firm.  These are the stalwart Democratic constituencies.  But Galloway has a long way to go to close the money gap with the incumbent.

Barnes to O’Laughlin

With the departure of Paul Curtman to Wisconsin, Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin has hired Fred Barnes to be her new chief of staff. Barnes comes from Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer’s office where he served as legislative assistant last session.

Senate 33: Kelly Antes Up

In the race to succeed Sen. Mike Cunningham, Van Kelly put $100K into his campaign committee.  Kelly is a former state representative.  Follow him on Twitter here.

He faces Rep. Robert Ross (see his bio here) in the Republican primary.

Trump = GOP Primary Gold

What stands out from last week’s MOScout poll on Senate 29 isn’t the relative numbers of the two largely unknown Republican candidates.  It’s the towering approval number of President Donald Trump with Republican primary voters.

Q1: What is your opinion Donald Trump?

Favorable: 82%

Unfavorable: 14%

No opinion: 4%

WaPo on The Opioid Epidemic

Washington Post has a map of the United States that shows how many opioid pills were shipped to each county, annually per capita.  See it here.  It’s frightening.

Southeast Missouri has some of the highest rates…

Butler County:  99.7 pills per person per year.

Pemiscot County: 89.3 pills per person per year.

Dunklin County: 85.5 pills per person per year.

Scott County: 79.6 pills per person per year.

Ripley County: 79.4 pills per person per year.

Mississippi County: 67.8 pills per person per year.

Interim Committee on Local Taxes

Speaker Elijah Haahr formed the Interim Committee on Oversight of Local Taxation to see how “local governments are determining taxes and are impacted by current tax policy.”  Rep. J. Eggleston is chairing the committee.  See the committee members here.

What It Means

The Republican-dominated General Assembly, after a decade of cutting state taxes, is increasingly turning its gaze to the local governments.  In the tug-of-war between conservative banners of “low taxes” and “local control,” taxes seems to be winning.

The Easy Part

Governor Mike Parson signed Executive Order 19-13 “creating the Missouri Health Insurance Innovation Task Force. The Governor’s action aims to curb rising healthcare premiums and increase access and competition in health insurance markets for all Missourians…The Task Force is challenged to develop concepts that will improve access to affordable insurance options and healthcare services within the state while reducing the state’s uninsured rates, with an emphasis on increasing access to healthcare in rural areas of the state.”

E-Tailing Keeps Growing

The Missouri legislature was unable to implement an internet sales tax last session, but e-tailer Amazon hasn’t stopped growing. 

·         Prime Day just ended with approximately $5.8 billion in sales, up from $4.1 billion last year.

Yesterday was the filing deadline for the July fundraising quarter.

Top Cash on Hand

Uniting Missouri PAC - $2,885,364

Parson For Missouri - $1,149,893

Carpenters Help in the Political Process (CHIPP) – $1,079,745

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $1,023,515

Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund - $1,012,742

Rhoads Terminates Committee

Former Rep. Shawn Rhoads terminated his candidate committee, spending down the final $9K that was in the account since he resigned.  The report’s expenditures included a fair number of charitable contributions as well as an office equipment expense.  Rhoads recently registered to lobby.