Cunningham Hearts Eslinger

Incumbent Sen. Mike Cunningham endorsed Rep. Karla Eslinger in Senate 33.

·         It gives Eslinger’s nascent campaign a boost.

• But, as MOScout/Remington polling has shown across all Republican Senate primaries, the incumbents are nowhere near as popular with primary voters as President Donald Trump.

• Specifically, from a Senate 33 poll of Republican primary voters, Cunningham had a net favorability of +25% (with 51% having no opinion). Trump had a net favorability of +71%.

Schmitt RAGA

At the Republican Attorneys General Association’s winter meeting over the weekend, Attorney General Eric Schmitt was elected to the seven-person executive board which oversees the organization. He is the youngest member on the exec board.

Big Check Friday

Two big checks were recorded Friday.

First, Rex Sinquefield tossed $250K into the Pro-Mike Kehoe PAC, American Dream PAC.  Kehoe still doesn’t have a declared Democratic opponent. 

Second, Washington University added $250K to Missourians for Healthcare.  That’s the committee for the Medicaid Expansion campaign.

The Once and Future State Rep?

Word is that former Rep. Joe Adams is considering a run at his old seat, House 86.  He vacated it to run for state senate, losing to Sen. Brian Williams.

The current incumbent, Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal is term limited

Driving the Day: Scism Kicks Off

Kent Scism kicks off his campaign for Senate 3 today.

The press release: Scism grew up on a farm and raised livestock from an early age. His father built a Ford tractor dealership and later purchased a Ford Motor Company dealership when Kent was young. Kent started working for his father’s dealership at the age of 13, where he spent his evenings and weekends washing cars, sweeping floors, and doing every task imaginable.

Very Good News for Trump

With the impeachment hearing starting today, Republicans can cheer that the macroeconomic picture is brightening.  Axios Markets reports that recession fear have “vanished.”  This eliminates one of the greatest potential weakness that Republicans could have faced in the upcoming election year.

Investors have done a complete 180-degree turn in sentiment, moving from distrustful of the market's 2019 gains to full-fledged cheerleaders.

Conservative Caucus To Push Title IX Reforms?

Word is that the Conservative Caucus sees Title IX reforms as part of its agenda for next legislative session.

Tipster: The Conservative Caucus has already tapped Title IX reform as one of its top priorities next session. The Breitbart interview is McIntosh’s attempt to reset the narrative. Last session they were damaged because he tried to hide that his son was the motivation. This year, they will put his case front and center.

Clay Saga Continues

From Friday…. “State Auditor Nicole Galloway today issued a subpoena to Clay County to require the county to turn over documents associated with a citizen mandated audit. An Oct. 24 court ruling confirmed the Auditor's legal authority to conduct performance audits and dismissed the County Commission's lawsuit against the Auditor. Clay County officials have yet to produce documentation originally requested in December 2018 and January 2019.”

If, Then…

From 538… “In the suburbs southwest of St. Louis, Democrats flipped Missouri House District 99 in a special election. The district had a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+11, and the Democratic candidate won by 8 points, making for a dramatic 19-point margin swing. If the same thing happens in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers Missouri House District 99, it would be enough to flip the seat from red to blue (the 2nd District’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean is R+16).”

Moody Warns on Revenue

Lobbyist Jim Moody is warning that the state revenue data might not be as rosy as it appears. 

It’s misleading to compare current months to the under-withholding months of last year.

Moody: “I think there’s a real risk with this erroneous data that people are going to look at it and say ‘let’s cut taxes’ and it would be the wrong thing to do.”

Ask Revis

One Republican isn’t sold on the suburbs being lost.  “Another thing for Dems to remember after last night. Special elections in these districts are unique creatures. They need to look no further than the 97th to see a win in a special and a totally different result in the general. Ask Mike Revis how easy it is to get re-elected…”

Driving Yesterday: Special Elections

Dems rejoiced as they took House 99.  Trish Gunby recorded a solid win (54%-46%). 

What It Means

·         It should give Republicans concern that the current environment (Trump in the White House, HB 126’s no exemption language, Parson OK with bureaucrats poring over menstrual spreadsheets) is motivating Democratic turnout AND not motivating Republican turnout.

·         But it’s not cause for alarm or hyperbole.  Once Democrats have a presidential candidate, especially depending on who it is, that may provide a motivating instinct for the Republican base.  And if state Republicans can find an issue other than abortion to focus on next session, that will help as well.

Driving the Day: Special Elections

It’s election day for in several House districts.  There’s really only one to watch: House 99.

None of the others will be competitive.

Franz Out at Tourism

Multiple sources tell me that Ward Franz is out as Director of Tourism. 

Franz, appointed to the post a little over a year ago, is no longer listed on the staff directory of the Division of Tourism.

SpreadsheetGate: Day Three

This is a nightmare for Republicans.  It’s an issue which could really spike Democrats turnout in swing districts.  In fact, one political consultant thinks Dems should drop their talking points about Medicaid Expansion and instead focus completely on this issue: the GOP’s extreme abortion law allowing no exemptions for rape, and unelected bureaucrats with spreadsheets tracking menstrual periods.

Next Session Watch: Child Custody Laws

It appears that there may be a push to change child custody laws next session. 

The movement afoot on the grassroots side… National Parents Organization's Missouri Chair Linda Reutzel recently hosted a showing of Erasing Family.

One advocate says, “a simple change in law that starts with the premise that in the case of divorce, parenting should be 50-50 with a rebuttable presumption, would create less acrimony between parents, costs families less, and reduce the burden of what has become a $4 billion a year industry….”

Scism Adds $100K to Campaign

In Senate 3, Kent Scism added $100,000 to his campaign committee, Scism for Senate. 

·         Scism has a successful car dealership and appears able and willing to self-fund.

·         Other Republican names have been mentioned. 

·         This contribution may be timed to dissuade those considering a primary bid.

Pro-Hoffman PAC

One reader notes that there are indications that Dems are serious again about House 96.  One such clue is that a PAC has been set up to help their candidate, Erica Hoffman.  Women for Justice PAC has the same treasurer, Tom Madden, as the pro-Doug Beck PAC, Doug PAC, and Protect Missouri Workers PAC.  I’m told Madden lives in this House district.

Rematch in House 96

Erica Hoffman on Facebook last week… “I am running for MO House of Representatives AGAIN in 2020.”

Hoffman was the Democratic candidate last cycle against incumbent Rep. David Gregory.She elicited excitement from Dems because Gregory’s South St. Louis County suburban district was thought ripe for the flipping.

Sinquefield in Senate 27

Rex Sinquefield sent $50,000 to the pro-Holly Rehder PAC, Holly PAC.  Rehder is engaged in a very competitive Republican primary with Rep. Kathy Swan.  Swan is endorsed by term-limited incumbent Sen. Wayne Wallingford.  Rehder has maintained a fundraising lead on Swan, and this big check from Sinquefield will help increase it.