Yes on 2 Ads: Bring Our Tax $$$ Home

The pro-Medicaid expansion campaign release a slew of ads. They argues that our tax money is already going to fund Medicaid expansion in other states, why not get our share? It’s a counter argument to the anti-MedEx contention that expanding the program will “cost” Missourians.

Galloway Announces Another Huge Quarter

The press release: Auditor Nicole Galloway’s campaign for Governor announced that the campaign raised $1,128,479 between April 1 and June 30. This is the largest amount raised by a candidate committee in Missouri in a single quarterly reporting period since the reintroduction of contribution limits in 2017. Galloway achieved this milestone without a single in-person fundraising event…

Mitten Endorses Doll

Rep. Gina Mitten is endorsing Jo Doll in House 83. Mitten is term limited. Doll and Tyler Merkel are running to replace her.

MedEx Makes Ad Buy

Yesterday the Yes on 2 campaign placed a $3.3 million TV and radio buy statewide.

That’s a strong number. In August, without competition from statewide candidates, it should be the dominant campaign in Missouri.

Budget Cuts
The new fiscal year starts today.  Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson announced over $440M in budget withholds for the new year. 

• Budget Director Dan Haug, describing the swift collapse of the economy, called it the “most difficult budget” he’s ever seen.

• They removed almost all new spending, and kept in place the previous budget restrictions.

Dem Polling Has Biden Up in MO

From the memo: Between June 16-22, 2020, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 800 likely general election voters in Missouri. The survey, which was conducted online, has a margin of error of 3.5% and is representative of a November 2020 electorate…

• The survey finds that the political environment in Missouri has shifted slightly away from Republicans…

New IE PACs

Jamey Murphy is the treasurer of NOVA PAC, a new PAC for John Simmons. Simmons is running (unopposed) for re-election House 109 (Franklin County), potentially prepping for a Senate run in 2022 (Schatz termed). However, this is after redistricting so there’s a lot of unknowns.

1. STL City mobility increases.

2. STL County mobility increases.

3. St. Charles mobility increases.

4. Folks more confident they can protect themselves from COVID.

5. GOPers more than Dems.

6. Pro-life Dems and Pro-choice GOPers exist.

7. What shape economic recovery.

Senate 3

Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Kent Scism, Joshua Barrett and Elaine Freeman Gannon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Kent Scism: 19%

Joshua Barrett: 24%

Elaine Freeman Gannon: 23%

Undecided: 34%

Gov Says Special Coming

At his briefing yesterday, Governor Mike Parson spoke about a special session as if it’s happening for sure – even as he’s unsure of when it would be or what would be included in the call.

Harris as MRL Puppet-Master?

Some think casting James Harris as “MRL Whisperer” is a bit of a stretch. But Harris’ clients (Gannon, Swan, and Brattin) did indeed fare well with MRL PAC…

Rehder’s First Ad: American Dream

In Senate 27, Rep. Holly Rehder released her first TV ad.

It’s an edited down version of her announcement video, highlighting her biography.

“I didn’t want a life on welfare, I wanted the American Dream. So I worked, put myself through college, started a business…”

Justice’s First Ad: Liberals Crazier Than Sprayed Roach

In Senate 25, Eddy Justice has released his first TV ad. It’s memorable, and could create some buzz.

He calls himself a “hardcore conservative.”  The ad is hardcore.  It starts with a punch at “liberal geniuses” who want to “abolish the police.”  “They’re crazier than a sprayed roach.” 

COVID Flares Up

New fears are rising that the coronavirus is spreading more rapidly in new places in Missouri.

• The most likely impact will be to dampen the economic recovery.

1. Biden leads Trump with women voters

2. But not in Missouri.

3. COVID in SWMO

4. COVID in SEMO

5. Charter school opening / closures in Missouri.

6. Why charters fail in Missouri.

7. Labor force participation, Missouri.

8. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance, Missouri

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Special Session

Lobbyists expect a special session with 80% of them saying it’s either very likely or somewhat likely. 

May Unemployment Unch

Missouri’s May unemployment rate decreased a smidge from 10.2% in April to 10.1% in May. June will be the number to watch. Will the reopening of the economy have made a real dent in the number or are we in for a long slog?

Zimmerman On the Air

St. Louis County Assessor Jake Zimmerman goes on the air today with his first TV ad. He’s in the middle of a four-way Democratic primary for County Executive.

In the ad, a supporter, Registered Nurse Mimi Signor, addresses the camera. She first hits incumbent Sam Page (“you should know the facts about Sam Page…”).

Revenues Showing Some Bounce

At the half-way point in the month, state tax receipts are showing a little life.  That’s good news for budgeteers

Driving the Day: Back to Business Day

Today marks the end of the state restrictions related to the coronavirus. Local municipalities can keep their own, but it appears that many will follow the state’s lead.