Next Session Issues: LIHTC Reform

There are a couple of issues looming over the upcoming session.  One of them is the state’s subsidy for low income housing.

Aside from style, temperament, and ambition, it’s one of the few substantive policy differences between Governor Mike Parson and his predecessor.

Parson was clearly on the record in support of the state Low Income Housing Tax Credit program even as Governor Eric Greitens ground it to a halt.

Recently Parson appointed two new members to the Missouri Housing Development Commission, the body which issues the credits.  With those appointments he stated his conditions for reinstating the flow of credits: “We are confident in the legislature’s ability to develop tax credit reforms that address housing needs, while ensuring greater accountability and an increased return on the investment of taxpayer dollars. As a member of the Commission, I am committed to considering current federal tax credit applications, but until substantial reforms are enacted, state tax credits will not be issued.”

This puts the ball in the legislature’s court.

New Ads: Shields in Senate 8

Democrat Hillary Shields, challenging Sen. Mike Cierpiot in Senate 8, released her first ad.  See it here. It’s called “Being Heard” and the first half of the commercial only the back side of her head is seen as she’s listening to constituents.   While the ad touching on traditional themes – education etc – the main promise she makes is to listen.

New Ads: Amendment 2

Amendment 2 – the New Approach constitutional amendment for medical marijuana legalization – released an TV ad.  See it here.  It features a veteran describing the pain of battle injuries and asking Missourians to “please stand with us (veterans) by voting yes.”  Hard to say No to that.

New CMC Ad

A new Claire McCaskill sounds almost unscripted as she responds to the attack ad against her husband’s wealth.

“Let’s talk about these false attacks… I was a single mom raising three children when I met my husband who had already built a very successful business before we’d even met.  For my opponent to attack me for marrying a wealthy man is outrageous…”

One Republican shakes his head as it seems like an unusual McCaskill slip-up: “You don't ever ever ever repeat an attack. You can say ‘I'm being unfairly attacked’ and look sympathetic. But to talk about being rich, your husband being wealthy and the fact that his business was already successful when you found him is something that precisely no voters can relate to…”

“Safe Medicine” Forms to Oppose MMJ

Citizens For Safe Medicine was formed.  It’s a campaign committee.  Its purpose is to oppose the three medical marijuana questions on the ballot next month.

The treasurer of Safe Medicine is Judy Brooks.  She’s been involved in anti-drug efforts.  She’s featured in this Jefferson City Magazine article about Council for Drug Free Youth.

The deputy treasurer is Pat Rowe-Kerr, who recently lost a state representative campaign in House 60.

Hawley Launches Ad Pressing Kav Line of Attack

Hawley’s new ad is simple.  He speaks to the camera in front of a black backdrop. “I’m Josh Hawley and I will fight for the Supreme Court.  It’s the last line of defense for our values.  It’s worth the battle.”  See it here.

1 Big Trend: Future Revenue Streams

The current state revenue picture appears too be lackluster.  See below that September’s numbers were a tepid 2.3% increase over last September.  Fiscal year to date we’re still below water, down over 3% compared to last year.  Most observers blame the goofed withholding tables which will soon be corrected.

However most assessments of the future see a bevy of new revenue streams giving the state new ways to invest in priority areas….

Driving the Day: Amazon Ups Wages

Wall Street Journal reports that Amazon will raise its minimum wage to $15/hour.  “The new minimum wage will kick in Nov. 1, covering more than 250,000 current employees and 100,000 seasonal holiday employees. The company said it also will start lobbying for an increase in the federal minimum wage, currently at $7.25 an hour.”

What It Means

This suddenly makes the Raise Up Missouri ballot question look kind of tame.  That proposal bumps Missouri’s minimum wage to $8.60 per hour and implements yearly increases until it hits $12/hour in 2023.

It’s also a symptom of a full employment economy where a scarcity of workers is the biggest constraint to growth.  I’d like to say that Governor Mike Parson’s focus on workforce development is happening at exactly the right time, but the truth is it should have happened a decade ago to be ready for today.

Schaefer for Hawley

Former Sen. Kurt Schaefer showed up at a fundraiser for Josh Hawley last week.  The two had a bitter primary battle for attorney general in 2016.  Schaefer accused Hawley of being cozy with terrorists, and Hawley said Schaefer was in the pockets of the Chinese.

And

Former Senator Kit Bond gets a lot of credit, says one MOScouter.  Bond hosted the event and he’s “still playing the role of a senior leader in the GOP. He invited Kurt Schaefer… and Schaefer obliged, as a team player.”

Driving the Monday News

Auditor Nicole Galloway will be traveling the state on Monday to release her office’s latest audit.  This one is on the sex offender registration program.  “The audit examines the noncompliance rates and enforcement of registry requirements statewide. The report also includes noncompliance rates by county.”

You don’t do a fly-around if everything is hunky-dory with the program…

SCOTUS Hearing

Quick take: the losing side is going to be hopping mad, and more motivated to seek revenge in November.

Over $2.3M Raised for SaferMO.Com

In the large contributions this morning, Civic Progress gives $125K to the transportation tax campaign committee, SaferMO.Com.  This comes on the heels of $100K from Centene earlier this week, and $600K from the Eastern Missouri Laborers District Council.  Safer has received 47 large contributions this since the start of August totaling over $2.3 million.

What It Means

As important as this figure is – they’ll need money to blanket the state during the final weeks to cut through the onslaught of US Senate ads – the more important number is $0.  That’s what we’ve seen from the opponents.  No organized opposition to the tax increase is a big positive for the campaign.

Quarter Ends This Week

The September quarter ends this week.  Lots of fundraisers and phone calls.  And with six weeks left before Election Day, big checks are funding PACs.

In today’s large contributions: Stan Herzog’s company gave two $100K checks to GOP PACs; the Carpenters gave $225,000 to Middle Class Missouri PAC which looks like it will be helping Dem candidates; and the transportation tax got $600K from a labor group as they continue to add to their coffers.

Hawley Rebuts ACA Attack

Pro-McCaskill third-party groups have been attacking on Attorney General Josh Hawley for his lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act, saying that he is against the provision requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions.  It’s one of the features of Obamacare which enjoys wide support among Americans.

In a sign that the attack may be working, Hawley’s campaign released an ad in which he shares his personal story and affirms his support for the policy.  See it here.

Budget Shortfall Due to Withholding Error?

I’ve written over past few weeks about a troubling trend in the state revenue which shows individual income tax receipts lagging despite solid economic growth.

As of last week, individual income tax receipts – the largest contributor to state revenues – was running about $60 million behind last year’s collection pace.  That’s concerning because we’re still early in the fiscal year.

In what appears to be a response to these numbers, the Department of Revenue announced on Friday that it’s “adjusting” withholding tables.  In other words, it seems they goofed when figuring how much Missourians should withhold. Presumably this was a miscalculation when figuring how the Trump tax cut would impact taxpayers.

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 16

The MOScout poll this week looked at Senate 16 where Dems have been cheered by a spirited campaign from Ryan Dillon.  Justin Brown just emerged for the GOP from a rough primary.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 59%

Disapprove: 38%

Not sure: 3%

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Justin Dan Brown and the Democrat Ryan Dillon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Justin Dan Brown: 54%

Ryan Dillon: 35%

Undecided: 11%

The Talk: 2020 Gov Primary?

One building dweller tells me that the “chatter is increasing that Jay Ashcroft is preparing a primary challenge to Parson.”  I asked around and couldn’t find evidence of it.  But one observer pointed out “I think all the statewides (Kehoe, Schmidt and Ashcroft) are [looking at it] because Parson may not run again or he might show weakness and he wasn’t elected to governor…”

And

If you think this talk is awfully early, think again.  With campaign contribution limits, it takes work – and time – to gather up the three and four-figure checks to make a seven or eight-figure war-chest for a statewide campaign.

McCaskill a NO on Kavanaugh

What It Means

Everybody knew how this movie was going to end.  We’re in a base election model.  Fighting for swing voters, and wooing Independents is an out-of-favor method for winning elections.  Instead campaigns are doing their darnest to turnout every vote from their side.

Koster to Host Fundy for CMC

Former attorney general Chris Koster will hold a fundraiser for Claire McCaskill next month.  Koster, now an executive with health giant Centene, has kept a low political profile since his loss to Eric Greitens in the 2016 gubernatorial race.

The event is October 5 at Koster’s Clayton home.

From the invitation: The first $2,700 of each contribution from an individual and the first $5,000 from a multicandidate committee will be allocated to McCaskill for Missouri for the 2018 General Election. The next $10,000 of each contribution from an individual and the next $5,000 of each contribution from a multicandidate committee will be allocated to the Missouri Democratic State Committee. The allocation formula above may change if any contributor makes a contribution that, when allocated, would exceed the amount that the contributor may lawfully give to any participant.

Biggest Change in the Governor’s Office

One MOScouter sent me description of their recent visit to the 2nd floor….

I went by the Governor's office to set an appointment for the first time since Gov. Mike Parson took over. The difference could not have been more striking.

Under Greitens, I often found the outer office empty except for the security person or persons and the receptionist… All the doors were closed, and everything seemed to be very quiet…

[During my visit] I walked through an open hallway door to find the inner office packed with people. The door to the governor's private office space was wide open with a view to an open outdoor space as well so the breeze could blow through. The governor was chatting in the reception area with a man in a wheelchair and a woman with the man… I greeted the governor, extended my hand, and offered congratulations, and the security detail did not tackle me. He warmly greeted me.

The office was full of activity, and a staff member came out to help me with what I needed and was quick to give me additional information about who does what so that I could ask for the right person in the future…

Sinquefield Gives $250K to MO Club for Growth

In the large contributions, Rex Sinquefield sent $250,000 to Missouri Club for Growth.  That’s his preferred vehicle to support state legislative candidates who believe in his free market philosophy.  Former speaker Tim Jones is the topper on MOClub who’ll be strategizing where the $$$ are spent.