MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 8

The MOScout Weekly Poll shows Sen. Mike Cierpiot with a firm grip on Senate 8.  See the poll here.

Remember this is a district Trump won by 20%, Greitens won by 11%, and Blunt won by 5%.  See the map here.

But

What Dems will find interesting is that the poll shows reasons for them to be optimistic in taking House 34 (Roeber) and House 35 (Cross termed). Trump is underwater in both districts.  His approval is 43% to 52% disapproval in House 34; and it’s worse (38% to 55%) in House 35.

House-Parson Spat = Small Disagreement

From a top House Republican…. “I agree with your second commenter: if Republicans can stick together, we will thrive. That starts by not making senseless and unnecessary vetoes in the first place. It shouldn't be expected that the legislature be a 2nd tier branch of government that answers to the executive. All of this aside, this is a small disagreement and neither the governor or legislature should allow it to be a reason to not work together electorally and on good policy moving forward….”

What It Means

From one House source comes what feels like the majority opinion on how the governor handled the vetoes… This month we've learned the new governor is no different than other governors in recent memory… [They said] "The money for the TCD Unit is there in Health's budget. The override isn't necessary." Even if that money shows up in January's supplemental budget proposal, it means other functions in DHSS won't be funded for more than half the year to instead cover the mishandled veto of the program. Funding a legislatively-approved program that was specifically axed via executive action should be offensive to both legislators and taxpayers.

First in MOScout: Labor $$$ to Support Ballot Questions

We Are Missouri has amended its campaign paperwork to support Amendment 1 (CLEAN Missouri) and Prop B (increase in minimum wage).  See it here.

We Are Missouri was the committee for organized labor’s anti-right to work campaign.  RTW lost badly.  Only 32% of Missourians voting for its passage.

As of their latest campaign finance report earlier this month, We Are Missouri still had $525,000 in their campaign account leading to speculation about how they would use it.

MOScout Race Ratings

I created a spreadsheet putting each House and Senate race into a category – “uncontested,” “safe,” “likely,” and “lean” – to give a bird’s eye view how this cycle is shaping up.  I’m eschewing the “toss-up” category because it’s just gets too easy to throw close races in there. Also I have no fear of being wrong.  In truth the “leans” of either direction are my toss-up category. 

The spreadsheet is pretty self-explanatory.  

The Math

I have Dems +1 in the Senate, and +3 in the House.   But if the leans could go either way according to the tide of the evening, the range is: Senate even to +2 Dems; House: +1 Dems to +8 Dems.

Special Session Starts Today

The special session starts today at Noon.  Veto Session starts on Wednesday.  Don’t look for much real drama this week.  This is, at least in part, because the two top Republicans have bipartisan respect – if not support.

Speaker Todd Richardson – despite the Republicans’ monumental legislative achievements last session – will be remembered for his steady, measured leadership of the House with controversies at each bookend.  John Diehl’s resignation bringing him to the corner office, and Eric Greitens’ multiple scandals dominating his final year. Richardson played a cool and fair hand in both situations.

Additionally, Governor Mike Parson’s honeymoon continues.  From a Republican operative who has data on Parson from some recent polling… [Parson] has the highest approval levels among all Republican statewide office holders.  Of the Republicans who have an opinion of the Governor, 74% approve.  Of Democrats, he holds a 66% approval rating. 

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 30

Here are the toplines for this week’s poll.  It shows Lincoln Hough with a lead in Senate 30, though Claire McCaskill is neck and neck with Josh Hawley in the district. 

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Claire McCaskill. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 48%

Undecided: 5%

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Lincoln Hough and the Democrat Charlie Norr. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Lincoln Hough: 48%

Charlie Norr: 42%

Undecided: 10%

We Are Missouri Sitting on $525K…

Yesterday candidate and campaigns filed their “30 Day After the primary” finance reports, basically covering the month of August.

We Are Missouri, organized labor’s campaign committee to defeat Prop A, showed it raised $1.3 million and spent $1.2 million during that period.  It and now has $525,236 on-hand.  I previously wrote about talking to a union source who indicated there were discussions occurring about how to use the money.  The best guess is that they will use at least some of this leftover war-chest to target anti-labor legislators. The feeling is that if no political consequences are seen for passing right to work, the Republican-dominated legislature might be emboldened to revisit the issue sooner rather than later.

Budget Hole Emerging?

Ten weeks into the new fiscal year a disturbing trend is impacting state revenue.  Individual income tax receipts are lagging.  In August they declined 1.69% compared to August 2017.  As of the close of business Tuesday, individual income tax receipts were 6.5% lower than a year ago, $64 million less. 

This is surprising considering that the economy is at full employment.  One would expect to see gains in individual income tax receipts.  Furthermore, the stock market remains near highs, and capital gains can sometimes drive tax receipts as well.

And sales tax receipts are still showing growth – up 5.25% over last year at this time.

Perhaps there’s some anomaly to account for this.  But to seeing a hole this size, this early is concerning.

MO Poll: Educated Women Down on Trump

This poll was being passed around the internets yesterday.  I found the Trump approval numbers interesting.  They show a pattern emerging here in Missouri which mirrors national findings.

The Washington Post wrote about this a month ago.  See it here.  And see the stunning chart that accompanies it here. 

It shows how white men without college degrees fled the Democratic Party in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama.  They haven’t returned.  And now white women with college degrees are exiting the Republican Party with the election of Donald Trump.

This poll finds a similar demographic split in Missouri.

Trump’s approval among white men without college degrees is net +26 (56% approve, 30% disapprove); and his approval among white women with college degrees is nearly opposite: -16 (38% approve, 54% disapprove).

Sixteen Thirty Fund Gives $3M to Minimum Wage Campaign

Sixteen Thirty Fund – a Washington DC dark money organization on the left side of the political spectrum – sent a $3 million check to Raise Up Missouri over the weekend.  That’s the campaign committee for the November ballot issue to raise the minimum wage.  They had previously invested $500,000 in the campaign.

Politico did a story on Sixteen Thirty Fund last month.  They have been active all across the country.  See it here.  See the Sixteen Thirty Fund website here; it will tell you nothing.

I polled the minimum wage issue last month and it appears to be in good shape – especially now with its budget filled out.

Introducing MOScout’s “Hallway Index”

This is a new feature.  It will normally be in Saturday’s Weekender, but because of Labor Day, I’m unveiling it today.

Each week I will email a question to a “focus group” of about 30 hallway sources to get their read of a situation.  Hopefully it will provide us with a vibe for the mood of the lobbying community.  Whereas polls provide a snapshot of voters’ opinions, I think a survey of these individuals – immersed in politics – may yield a more insightful point of view.  We’ll seeeeee.

This week I asked: Will Claire McCaskill win re-election?  26 responses….

Highly Likely: 7.7%

Somewhat Likely: 65.4%

Somewhat Unlikely: 19.2%

Highly Unlikely: 7.7%

No Opinion: 0%

House 102 Redo?

The losing Republican candidate in House 102 has filed a lawsuit for an Election Day do-over. 

Bryan Cooper, who lost to Ron Hicks by 4 votes, is the plaintiff of the lawsuit.  Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has previously acknowledged that one polling place was locked for the first half-hour of operations.

From Casenet: “There will be an evidence hearing held on September 4, 2018 and the court anticipates ruling at the close of the hearing.  Any issues of a recount of the votes in the election are being conducted, by statute, by the secretary of state and are not part of this proceeding.  If a new election is held, it shall be conducted on September 18, 2018…”

Kander Settles Some Scores

I just finished Jason Kander’s book, Outside the Wire.  It’s a quick and fun read, written in the conversational tone of a state rep who might slide into a seat across from you at the Truman Hotel’s breakfast buffet – back when the lights were still on there.  It’s half “How To,” half memoir, but all around lots of fun especially when he throws a few jabs at MO politicos…. Kander describes Mark Parkinson as a lightweight who doodled his way through budget briefings, and talks about how Kerry Messer wasn’t someone he could ever trust.

Buy it here.

McDowell Might Escape Challenge

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft certified the primary election yesterday.   According to Missouri law, the opponents of Republican Auditor nominee Saundra McDowell now have five days to challenge her qualifications.

I think there’s a very real possibility that she escapes that fate.  It seems to me – talking to Dems – that they’re inclined to prefer McDowell to a hand-picked, party-vetted candidate.  In particular McDowell’s history of financial troubles gives them a good line of attack, and folks think there will be more embarrassments in her full opposition research folder.

eMailbag on CD-2 Poll

“That's not a great poll for Wagner. I think it's going to be more like +6 Republican instead of +9 like the poll and if undecideds break toward the challenger....and Democratic turnout is higher she could actually lose this thing. More likely it will be 51-49 Wagner but she is not out of the woods.”

MOScout Weekly Poll: 2nd Congressional District

This week’s poll looks at CD-2 where Congresswoman Ann Wagner faces Democrat Cort VanOstran. 

Dems have been poking me that this is one to watch.  The suburban district is theoretically where educated women, repulsed by President Donald Trump, are most likely to abandon the GOP.  (Here’s the fascinating chart of polling.  It shows white men without college degrees ditching the Dem Party in 2008 when Obama was elected.  And now the same phenomenon occurring with white degreed women due to Trump).

This poll doesn’t show any tsunami coming to radically change the nature of this district however.

Turf War: DNR Sues AHC

On Tuesday, the Department of Natural Resources sued the Administrative Hearing Commission in an extraordinary case of an executive branch fight going to court. This all started with a permit…

DNR issued a permit for a CAFO (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation, allowing the number of animals to exceed the previous 999 limit.  It was met with opposition.  See a news article here.   And about a month later it was formally challenged by neighbors, including a group that organized as Lone Jack Neighbors for Responsible Agriculture, LLC.  See their website here.

They appealed DNR’s issuance of a permit to the AHC which found in their favor and issued a stay of the permit.  DNR’s crying foul…

Latest Residency Drip

Kansas City reports the latest on the Saundra McDowell residency controversy (see it here): that her she and her husband claimed to be residents of Virginia on their marriage license.

That means she legally attested to being a resident of Virginia and Kansas during the 10-year period that she was supposed to be a Missouri resident.

But

This – like yesterday’s drip – isn’t a killer, it’s just a reminder that Republicans have an unvetted statewide candidate on their hands.And that makes people nervous because they don’t know what other pieces of information will be coming out.

Yesterday the Post-Dispatch reported (see it here) that “Saundra McDowell was living in Mission, Kan., when she was sued by a furniture company for failing to pay $698 plus 18 percent interest after entering into a contract in June 2012…

First, it doesn’t help McDowell’s legal case if someone sues. 

Second, it doesn’t help McDowell’s campaign as we’re entering “drip, drip, drip” territory with this controversy. 

But third, and maybe most importantly at this stage, this hurts McDowell with the Republican powerbrokers and donor class because as one building denizen texted me: “She has NEVER mentioned living in Kansas.  I really wonder if the GOP wasn’t told either.”