Follow-Up on MOScout Forecast

MOScout readers have no shortage of opinions.  I love it.  I gobble up the feedback.  I’m going to try to be better in the coming year of actually replying.

In this case, I was surprised to hear two repetitive comments about my forecast – coming from a variety of folks across the spectrum.

First, the +3 Dems forecast in the House, and break-even in Senate are baked into the conventional wisdom.  Some folks think it may be a seat or two higher or lower in the House, and some folks think Dems might get a seat in the Senate.  But no one is pounding the table that Dems will end up with a +8 night in the House.  There is no expectation of a wave night, hurtling unsuspecting incumbents out of Jeff City….

GOP’s State Senate Campaign Committee Loads Up

A bunch of checks came into the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee yesterday. Nearly $200K, plus another $100K into a friendly PAC, Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund from Herzog Contracting Corp.

An insider tells me that there will be more checks in the coming days.  Republicans are reloading for the final round.  And they doubt that Dems will show similar strength, giving them the closing edge in the potentially close races of Senate 22 and Senate 34.

Dems and GOP both spent heavily earlier in the year in the battle over Senate 17 (Silvey retiring; Arthur won) which Dems flipped.  But the cost is that Dems – as the minority party – have had a harder time rebuilding their war-chest.  And their candidates have generally displayed lackluster fundraising.  The result has been an asymmetry of resources which is one reason why Dems won’t get any new Senate seats in two weeks in Missouri.

New Ads

In Senate 34, Democrat Martin Rucker recalls his days playing football, touches on an ethcs complaint against Tony Luetkemeyer, and finishes with the tagline “I’m fighting for change because our families deserve someone who will always have their backs.”  See it here.

And Prop D is out with their latest commercial.  They hitting the inflation angle on this one, saying that MODoT has 60% less buying power over the last 22 years as the gas tax has stayed stagnant while prices have risen. See it here. 

Arpaio SuperPAC To Support McDowell

According to this tweet the Joe Arpaio SuperPAC, Protect America First, is having an event for Saundra McDowell this weekend.

It’s unclear how much money the SuperPAC will actually raise and spend on McDowell’s behalf. But she needs the help.  Nicole Galloway reported $1.3 million on-hand last week, and McDowell only reported $.02 million on-hand.

And

According to the Protect America First website, one of the SuperPAC’s defining issues is the relatively fringe notion that we should dissolve the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeal.  See it here.

MOScout Weekly Poll: Statewides and MMJ

Amazingly over 1,000 people listened to the long questions about medical marijuana and responded to this week’s poll. 1,215 likely 2018 General Election voters… Margin of Error is +/-2.7%. 

The news from this poll: Nicole Galloway is opening a small lead.  And there’s some separation of the MMJs with Amendment 2 looking good while Amendment 3 in trouble.

TOPLINES

Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O’Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 46%

Japheth Campbell: 2%

Jo Crain: 1%

Craig O’Dear: 1%

Undecided: 2%

Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Saundra McDowell: 42%

Nicole Galloway: 46%

Undecided: 12%

The Craziest Thing You Will Hear Today?

It could be this ad (listen to it here), paid for by Black Americans for the President’s Agenda. “Girl, white Democrats will be lynching black folk again… we can’t afford to let white Democrats take us back to bad old days of race verdicts, life sentences and lynchings when a white girl screams Rape…”

Alexandra Jaffe tweets that it will be running in St. Louis and Kansas City.

McDowell Endorsed by Arpaio

Saundra McDowell, Republican candidate for auditor, announced she was endorsed by Sheriff Joe Arpaio.  See the video here of the former sheriff standing next to McDowell’s campaign car.  It unfortunately has a misspelling (“coruption”) throughout the video.

CLEAN Bits

The mighty Jason Rosenbaum dropped a few CLEAN scoops yesterday….

First, this clip from Congressman Lacy Clay, saying that he was opposing Amendment 1.  See it here.  It’s safe to say that African American political leaders are split on this issue, with some concerned about its potential to dilute black voting blocs, and others reassured by that the proposal’s language protects minority representation.

Also CLEAN released their first TV ad.  See it here.  It’s a clear, straightforward ad.

Finally the big question right now: where’s David Humphreys?  Word was that that anti-CLEAN folks were looking for a million-dollar lift from him.  No money = no opposition = CLEAN coasting to victory in three weeks. 

And remember even the rich have to deal with liquidity issues from time to time.  Coming up with seven-figures on short notice when your munis aren’t coming due until December, that sort of thing….

The Big Picture: GOP Money Advantage

There may be a blue wave nationally, but Republican here in Missouri are well positioned to survive the year with limited casualties.  One of their key advantages: money.

The House Republican Campaign Committee has achieved a record-breaking $4.2M raised for this cycle. The previous record was $4.1M in 2010.

Senate 16 Numbers

Today is the deadline for October campaign finance filings.  Some folks submitted their early over the weekend.  For example, both candidates in Senate 16…

Democrat Ryan Dillon raised $16,996; spent $13,941; and has $73,305 on-hand.

Republican Justin Brown raised $43,202; spent $13,626; and has $37,383 on-hand.

McDowell October Quarter

Saundra McDowell, the Republican auditor, reported raising $38,927 in her October quarterly report.  She now has $26,457 on-hand.  This is an astonishing low sum of money for a statewide candidate.  Additionally, the campaign is still carrying $23,809 in debt.

Galloway’s 30-Day After report showed $1.2 million on-hand.  She hasn’t filed her October report yet. October reports are due Monday.

And

The PAC that’s associated with her candidacy, Accountability PAC, filed a limited activity report.  That means it didn’t raise or spend more than $500.

Energy Bill Helped Land Expansion

Quaker Window Products announced a $65 million expansion in Eldon Missouri yesterday. One of the reasons they cited – in addition to a “quality workforce” – was a new economic development tool from SB 564 which offers a special rate on energy.  Quaker Windows is the first company to apply for the incentive, which allows for up to a 40% rate cut under certain criteria for up to five years. 

Anti-McDowell IE

Keep Government Accountable recently released a 15-second spot blasting the Republican auditor candidate, Saundra McDowell.  Using press clippings, it calls her a “train wreck” of a candidate and recites her financial troubles.  See the video here.

Former Public Service Commissioner Kevin Gunn is the treasurer for Keep Government Accountable.  See the paperwork here.  According to the October campaign finance report, it has $126,000 on-hand.

Here were its donors on its latest report: Pipefitters Local Union 533 Volunteer Political Fund ($15,000), McBride & Son Management LLC ($10,000), Robert Blitz ($5,000), Hallmark Cards Inc ($1,000), and David George Mook LLC ($250).

Rex Gives Against CLEAN

Rex Sinquefield contributed $200,000 to Missourians First.  That’s the campaign working to defeat the CLEAN Missouri proposal on next month’s ballot.

This is the first large contribution we’ve seen into Missourians First.  CLEAN has raised over $2 million since their July quarter which showed $180,000 in their campaign account.

Missourians First has some catching up to do.  And the word is that this check is the beginning of a herd of checks we’ll be seeing this week.  There may be yet another Sinquefield check and it’s thought that David Humphreys has been asked to make a substantial contribution, as well as other heavy Republican donors.

Next Session Issues: LIHTC Reform

There are a couple of issues looming over the upcoming session.  One of them is the state’s subsidy for low income housing.

Aside from style, temperament, and ambition, it’s one of the few substantive policy differences between Governor Mike Parson and his predecessor.

Parson was clearly on the record in support of the state Low Income Housing Tax Credit program even as Governor Eric Greitens ground it to a halt.

Recently Parson appointed two new members to the Missouri Housing Development Commission, the body which issues the credits.  With those appointments he stated his conditions for reinstating the flow of credits: “We are confident in the legislature’s ability to develop tax credit reforms that address housing needs, while ensuring greater accountability and an increased return on the investment of taxpayer dollars. As a member of the Commission, I am committed to considering current federal tax credit applications, but until substantial reforms are enacted, state tax credits will not be issued.”

This puts the ball in the legislature’s court.

New Ads: Shields in Senate 8

Democrat Hillary Shields, challenging Sen. Mike Cierpiot in Senate 8, released her first ad.  See it here. It’s called “Being Heard” and the first half of the commercial only the back side of her head is seen as she’s listening to constituents.   While the ad touching on traditional themes – education etc – the main promise she makes is to listen.

New Ads: Amendment 2

Amendment 2 – the New Approach constitutional amendment for medical marijuana legalization – released an TV ad.  See it here.  It features a veteran describing the pain of battle injuries and asking Missourians to “please stand with us (veterans) by voting yes.”  Hard to say No to that.

New CMC Ad

A new Claire McCaskill sounds almost unscripted as she responds to the attack ad against her husband’s wealth.

“Let’s talk about these false attacks… I was a single mom raising three children when I met my husband who had already built a very successful business before we’d even met.  For my opponent to attack me for marrying a wealthy man is outrageous…”

One Republican shakes his head as it seems like an unusual McCaskill slip-up: “You don't ever ever ever repeat an attack. You can say ‘I'm being unfairly attacked’ and look sympathetic. But to talk about being rich, your husband being wealthy and the fact that his business was already successful when you found him is something that precisely no voters can relate to…”

“Safe Medicine” Forms to Oppose MMJ

Citizens For Safe Medicine was formed.  It’s a campaign committee.  Its purpose is to oppose the three medical marijuana questions on the ballot next month.

The treasurer of Safe Medicine is Judy Brooks.  She’s been involved in anti-drug efforts.  She’s featured in this Jefferson City Magazine article about Council for Drug Free Youth.

The deputy treasurer is Pat Rowe-Kerr, who recently lost a state representative campaign in House 60.

Hawley Launches Ad Pressing Kav Line of Attack

Hawley’s new ad is simple.  He speaks to the camera in front of a black backdrop. “I’m Josh Hawley and I will fight for the Supreme Court.  It’s the last line of defense for our values.  It’s worth the battle.”  See it here.

1 Big Trend: Future Revenue Streams

The current state revenue picture appears too be lackluster.  See below that September’s numbers were a tepid 2.3% increase over last September.  Fiscal year to date we’re still below water, down over 3% compared to last year.  Most observers blame the goofed withholding tables which will soon be corrected.

However most assessments of the future see a bevy of new revenue streams giving the state new ways to invest in priority areas….