Legislature Eyes Return Next Week

The Senate will return to the capitol on Tuesday, and they plan to pass both the FRA tax and the supplemental budget on Wednesday.

The House will return Wednesday to pass the supplemental.

The Senate will stream both the Appropriations Committee hearing on Tuesday and the floor proceedings on Wednesday.

Presumably legislators will minimize unnecessary speechifying, and the roll call votes will be lengthened to allow for social distancing.

The public will be discouraged from attending. 

Reacting to data means you’re behind the curve. By the time you see cases, you’re playing catch-up. New York Times reports on this phenomenon here. It means if you think the virus isn’t in rural areas because there aren’t reported cases, you’re not thinking about this crisis correctly.

Withholds Coming?

It looks like the governor’s office is preparing to announce withholds for the current fiscal year. As I’ve written about previously, this isn’t unexpected. The unprecedented situation is putting enormous pressure on the state budget.

· The sudden decline in economic activity which will certainly result in lower state tax receipts going forward.

· The decision to move Tax Day into July, which pushes it into the next fiscal year.

· In the new filings, a half-dozen Dems filed in House districts held by Republicans yesterday, signaling an expansion of their efforts.

· In the large contributions, the pro-Mike Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri, landed another six-figure check, indicating they continue to raise money.

Case Count Climbs

When I wrote my update last Monday, there were 106 confirmed coronavirus cases in Missouri. This morning there are 903.

· So far, former Sen. Rob Schaaf has been accurate in his gloomy assessment. Missouri’s cases are doubling every 3 or so days.

· And as many have pointed out, the number of positives is constrained by the number of testing. Anecdotal evidence abounds of a scarcity of tests.

Q3: How worried are you about the spread of the coronavirus?

Very worried: 48%

Somewhat worried: 42%

Not worried: 9%

Not sure: 1%

Corona Killed the Campaign

I’ve spoken to a few political consultants in the past week who describe the state of campaign as being in hibernation at this point.

The fundraising quarter ends next week. There would normally be a flurry of activity. Instead everything is on pause. “You can’t be asking people for money at a time like this.”

Moody on The Budget Mess

Lobbyist, and former budget director, Jim Moody has a new note with clients that he’s allowing to be shared…

· Our current view is that any ending cash balance on June 30, 2020, will be small, and that there may be spending restrictions applied in FY 2020 in order to create some operating cash…

The budget is beset by uncertainty. As I wrote about on Monday, the conornavirus’ impact on state revenues is unknown – but won’t be good.

Furthermore, pushing back Tax Day from April to July will create a whole new budget snafu.

· That date change moves the wave of final tax payments from the current fiscal year into the next fiscal year.

Latest Coronavirus

· Rudi Keller keeps track of the numbers. See them here. SPOILER: they’re going higher. #COVID19Missouri cases up 72% +77 total to 183

· Missouri State Medical Association urged Governor Mike Parson to issue a “stay-at-home” order. “If things progress as is, COVID-19 patients will deplete the state's available hospital beds, ventilators and precious personal protection equipment.”

· Parson declined to do that, but did close the capitol for two weeks, “meaning there will be no legislative action under the dome until sometime after April 6.”

How fast is this crisis moving? Since I hit send Thursday morning and took off for a long weekend…

· Missouri had 24 confirmed cases on Thursday morning… that’s quadrupled. This morning that number is 106. (And as Rudi Keller points out, the 106 number is already out-of-date because it lists Louis County at 23 cases and they are reporting 55 cases.)

· St. Louis and Kansas City leaders instituted a “stay-at-home” order for their residents, with “non-essential” businesses ordered shuttered.

· Governor Mike Parson waived work requirements for SNAP, and issued an order forbidding social gatherings of more than ten people.

Unknown: # Of Legislative Days Left in Session

Speaker Elijah Haahr in his press availability yesterday said repeatedly that “there’s no way to know how many legislative days there are left in session.”

This big question mark is echoed on the Senate side where I was told yesterday “The very earliest we are back in session realistically is first of May. And that might be a stretch.”

Can Parson Be a Crisis Gov?

Governor Mike Parson held his first “daily press briefing” on the coronavirus yesterday. But there’s a growing concern that the governor temperamentally mismatched for this crisis.

Post-Dispatch columnist Tony Messenger describes his “bed side manner” as inadequate when there’s a clamoring for action.

The Missouri Ethics Commission dismissed a complaint against Ward Franz because it was “moot” after he resigned his position. See it here. The complaint that was filed with the Commission alleged that Mr. Franz violated the employee code of conduct established by Governor’s Executive Order 18-10... The remedy for violations of Executive Order 18-10 is “disciplinary action including, but not limited to, termination of employment.” The complaint seeks to apply the Executive Order to these facts despite the fact that Mr. Franz has resigned.From the facts presented, the Commission dismissed the complaint because the matter is moot.

Those ads that Governor Mike Parson’s PAC was running about jobs and the economy won’t work for at least the next month. And depending on how long this crisis lasts, how many businesses fold during it, and how quickly or slowly the economy rebounds, they may be gone for the cycle. This deprives the GOP of one of their top selling point this cycle: a low unemployment rate.

Q4: How worried are you about the spread of the coronavirus? Very worried, somewhat worried or not at all worried?

Very worried: 28%

Somewhat worried: 49%

Not worried: 22%

Not sure: 1%

We’re in a wait-and-see mode right now. But there are clearly some imagining that this legislative session will be truncated in some fashion.

· If things go full Italy here, one would expect legislative leaders with the second floor to decide what handful of priority bills need to get passed, and let everything else wait until 2021.

Senate To Start Spring Break Early

Floor Leader Caleb Rowden tweeted last night: “The Missouri Senate will not be in session next week as we work to ensure the safety of our members and Capitol guests from the ongoing #COVID19 realities…”

MO Dem Prez Results

Joe Biden won Missouri with 60% of the vote. He also notched wins in Michigan, Mississippi, and Idaho. It appears he’ll ultimately be the Democrats’ presidential nominee.

The conventional wisdom among Missouri Democrats holds that Biden as nominee is marginally helpful to their efforts.

Leading Age Cancels Lobby Day

Caution in dealing with the coronavirus is behind Leading Age’s decision to cancel their “lobby day” in the capitol.

Leading Age is an association of non-profits that provide the entire continuum of senior care including nursing facilities, assisted and residential care communities, senior housing communities, adult day providers, and home health providers. See their website here.

Their concern is to reduce the possibility that one of their workers picks up the virus and brings it back to one of their communities with older residents who are more vulnerable to the virus.