Special Session Called

As expected, Governor Mike Parson called a special session to address violent crime in Missouri. It is to begin Monday July 27.

Parson Joins Team McCloskey

I never would have predicted that two whiny lawyers would become a conservative cause celebre, but here we are.

Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson threw his lot in with the McCloskeys.

Sabato Moves MO

The momentum continues for Team Galloway…

Larry Sabato’s widely followed “Crystal Ball” moved Missouri’s electoral college rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and moved the gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Jobs as Crime Deterrent

With the governor mulling a special session focused on crime, some worry it will devolve into election year “tough on crime” pandering. But if data suggests that unemployed ex-cons are highly likely to commit new crimes, might Parson seek to include in his crime package measures that would raise the odds of successful re-entry, especially for parolees w/ high recidivism risk and/or a history of violent offenses?

1. Americans more pessimistic on COVID.

2. Think it’s here for a while.

3. E-commerce leap.

4. COVID sends kids home.

5. Incarceration rates by country.

6. More Republican women running for Congress.

7. MOScout breakdown of House races.

Mims Fined

Former Rep. Bonnaye Mims was fined $20,807 by the Missouri Ethics Commission for a few episodes of using campaign funds for personal use, as well as thousands of dollars of cash withdrawals over the allowable limit. See it here.

Senate 29: Cole Fundy in KC

MOScouter: “Good fundraising event for David Cole in Kansas City [last night] at the home of longtime GOP attorney Terry Kilroy’s House.. Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick and Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer were in attendance to support…”

MO NRA Endorsements

The NRA’s Political Victory Fund released their Missouri endorsements. Incumbents with a good voting record get the nod over challengers without a record. Sole endorsements in the Senate primary races…

· Elaine Gannon – Senate 3.

· Bill Eigel – Senate 23

· Jeff Shawan – Senate 25

· Mike Moon – Senate 29

Yes on 2 Ads: Bring Our Tax $$$ Home

The pro-Medicaid expansion campaign release a slew of ads. They argues that our tax money is already going to fund Medicaid expansion in other states, why not get our share? It’s a counter argument to the anti-MedEx contention that expanding the program will “cost” Missourians.

Galloway Announces Another Huge Quarter

The press release: Auditor Nicole Galloway’s campaign for Governor announced that the campaign raised $1,128,479 between April 1 and June 30. This is the largest amount raised by a candidate committee in Missouri in a single quarterly reporting period since the reintroduction of contribution limits in 2017. Galloway achieved this milestone without a single in-person fundraising event…

Mitten Endorses Doll

Rep. Gina Mitten is endorsing Jo Doll in House 83. Mitten is term limited. Doll and Tyler Merkel are running to replace her.

MedEx Makes Ad Buy

Yesterday the Yes on 2 campaign placed a $3.3 million TV and radio buy statewide.

That’s a strong number. In August, without competition from statewide candidates, it should be the dominant campaign in Missouri.

Budget Cuts
The new fiscal year starts today.  Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson announced over $440M in budget withholds for the new year. 

• Budget Director Dan Haug, describing the swift collapse of the economy, called it the “most difficult budget” he’s ever seen.

• They removed almost all new spending, and kept in place the previous budget restrictions.

Dem Polling Has Biden Up in MO

From the memo: Between June 16-22, 2020, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 800 likely general election voters in Missouri. The survey, which was conducted online, has a margin of error of 3.5% and is representative of a November 2020 electorate…

• The survey finds that the political environment in Missouri has shifted slightly away from Republicans…

New IE PACs

Jamey Murphy is the treasurer of NOVA PAC, a new PAC for John Simmons. Simmons is running (unopposed) for re-election House 109 (Franklin County), potentially prepping for a Senate run in 2022 (Schatz termed). However, this is after redistricting so there’s a lot of unknowns.

1. STL City mobility increases.

2. STL County mobility increases.

3. St. Charles mobility increases.

4. Folks more confident they can protect themselves from COVID.

5. GOPers more than Dems.

6. Pro-life Dems and Pro-choice GOPers exist.

7. What shape economic recovery.

Senate 3

Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Kent Scism, Joshua Barrett and Elaine Freeman Gannon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Kent Scism: 19%

Joshua Barrett: 24%

Elaine Freeman Gannon: 23%

Undecided: 34%

Gov Says Special Coming

At his briefing yesterday, Governor Mike Parson spoke about a special session as if it’s happening for sure – even as he’s unsure of when it would be or what would be included in the call.

Harris as MRL Puppet-Master?

Some think casting James Harris as “MRL Whisperer” is a bit of a stretch. But Harris’ clients (Gannon, Swan, and Brattin) did indeed fare well with MRL PAC…

Rehder’s First Ad: American Dream

In Senate 27, Rep. Holly Rehder released her first TV ad.

It’s an edited down version of her announcement video, highlighting her biography.

“I didn’t want a life on welfare, I wanted the American Dream. So I worked, put myself through college, started a business…”