MedEx Campaign Nears $10M Mark

It looks like the campaign to expand Medicaid has raised about $10 million. The July finance filing of the campaign committee, Missourians for Healthcare, reported that it had raised $5,840,513.

Since July 1, according to the Missouri Ethics Commission website, there have been large contributions into the committee of over $4,000,000.

GOP Rallies Around McCloskeys

With the economy in disarray after the coronavirus shutdown, no good clarity over the future of the COVID contagion, and a president with slipping approval ratings, Missouri Republicans are feasting on the McCloskey issue like comfort food.

Is the 2nd Amendment still a hot button with voters amid current turmoil? We’ll see….

Parson Pivot Continues
We’ll see whether Parson is successful in making violent crime in Missouri’s urban areas the crisis du jour while COVID flares up increasingly in rural Missouri. Because just talking up crime doesn’t make the coronavirus go away…

1. BLM as GOP Primary Issue

2. GOP – Dem split on “big issues”

3. Presidential demographics split

4. Fauci becoming politicized figure

5. 20 years of trade deficits.

6. But we’re winning the “labor trade war.”

Franks to Gen Progress

Former Rep. Bruce Franks has joined Generation Progress as Senior Consultant.

See it here.

Anti-MedEx Going the “Grassroots” Route?

With no big checks coming into the committee formed to oppose Medicaid expansion, it appears that opponents are working the social media angle.

Dozens of Republican legislators and elected officials have made short videos exhorting viewers to vote No on the ballot question.

Special Session Called

As expected, Governor Mike Parson called a special session to address violent crime in Missouri. It is to begin Monday July 27.

Parson Joins Team McCloskey

I never would have predicted that two whiny lawyers would become a conservative cause celebre, but here we are.

Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson threw his lot in with the McCloskeys.

Sabato Moves MO

The momentum continues for Team Galloway…

Larry Sabato’s widely followed “Crystal Ball” moved Missouri’s electoral college rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and moved the gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Jobs as Crime Deterrent

With the governor mulling a special session focused on crime, some worry it will devolve into election year “tough on crime” pandering. But if data suggests that unemployed ex-cons are highly likely to commit new crimes, might Parson seek to include in his crime package measures that would raise the odds of successful re-entry, especially for parolees w/ high recidivism risk and/or a history of violent offenses?

1. Americans more pessimistic on COVID.

2. Think it’s here for a while.

3. E-commerce leap.

4. COVID sends kids home.

5. Incarceration rates by country.

6. More Republican women running for Congress.

7. MOScout breakdown of House races.

Mims Fined

Former Rep. Bonnaye Mims was fined $20,807 by the Missouri Ethics Commission for a few episodes of using campaign funds for personal use, as well as thousands of dollars of cash withdrawals over the allowable limit. See it here.

Senate 29: Cole Fundy in KC

MOScouter: “Good fundraising event for David Cole in Kansas City [last night] at the home of longtime GOP attorney Terry Kilroy’s House.. Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick and Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer were in attendance to support…”

MO NRA Endorsements

The NRA’s Political Victory Fund released their Missouri endorsements. Incumbents with a good voting record get the nod over challengers without a record. Sole endorsements in the Senate primary races…

· Elaine Gannon – Senate 3.

· Bill Eigel – Senate 23

· Jeff Shawan – Senate 25

· Mike Moon – Senate 29

Yes on 2 Ads: Bring Our Tax $$$ Home

The pro-Medicaid expansion campaign release a slew of ads. They argues that our tax money is already going to fund Medicaid expansion in other states, why not get our share? It’s a counter argument to the anti-MedEx contention that expanding the program will “cost” Missourians.

Galloway Announces Another Huge Quarter

The press release: Auditor Nicole Galloway’s campaign for Governor announced that the campaign raised $1,128,479 between April 1 and June 30. This is the largest amount raised by a candidate committee in Missouri in a single quarterly reporting period since the reintroduction of contribution limits in 2017. Galloway achieved this milestone without a single in-person fundraising event…

Mitten Endorses Doll

Rep. Gina Mitten is endorsing Jo Doll in House 83. Mitten is term limited. Doll and Tyler Merkel are running to replace her.

MedEx Makes Ad Buy

Yesterday the Yes on 2 campaign placed a $3.3 million TV and radio buy statewide.

That’s a strong number. In August, without competition from statewide candidates, it should be the dominant campaign in Missouri.

Budget Cuts
The new fiscal year starts today.  Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson announced over $440M in budget withholds for the new year. 

• Budget Director Dan Haug, describing the swift collapse of the economy, called it the “most difficult budget” he’s ever seen.

• They removed almost all new spending, and kept in place the previous budget restrictions.

Dem Polling Has Biden Up in MO

From the memo: Between June 16-22, 2020, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 800 likely general election voters in Missouri. The survey, which was conducted online, has a margin of error of 3.5% and is representative of a November 2020 electorate…

• The survey finds that the political environment in Missouri has shifted slightly away from Republicans…