Driving the Monday News

Auditor Nicole Galloway will be traveling the state on Monday to release her office’s latest audit.  This one is on the sex offender registration program.  “The audit examines the noncompliance rates and enforcement of registry requirements statewide. The report also includes noncompliance rates by county.”

You don’t do a fly-around if everything is hunky-dory with the program…

SCOTUS Hearing

Quick take: the losing side is going to be hopping mad, and more motivated to seek revenge in November.

Over $2.3M Raised for SaferMO.Com

In the large contributions this morning, Civic Progress gives $125K to the transportation tax campaign committee, SaferMO.Com.  This comes on the heels of $100K from Centene earlier this week, and $600K from the Eastern Missouri Laborers District Council.  Safer has received 47 large contributions this since the start of August totaling over $2.3 million.

What It Means

As important as this figure is – they’ll need money to blanket the state during the final weeks to cut through the onslaught of US Senate ads – the more important number is $0.  That’s what we’ve seen from the opponents.  No organized opposition to the tax increase is a big positive for the campaign.

Quarter Ends This Week

The September quarter ends this week.  Lots of fundraisers and phone calls.  And with six weeks left before Election Day, big checks are funding PACs.

In today’s large contributions: Stan Herzog’s company gave two $100K checks to GOP PACs; the Carpenters gave $225,000 to Middle Class Missouri PAC which looks like it will be helping Dem candidates; and the transportation tax got $600K from a labor group as they continue to add to their coffers.

Hawley Rebuts ACA Attack

Pro-McCaskill third-party groups have been attacking on Attorney General Josh Hawley for his lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act, saying that he is against the provision requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions.  It’s one of the features of Obamacare which enjoys wide support among Americans.

In a sign that the attack may be working, Hawley’s campaign released an ad in which he shares his personal story and affirms his support for the policy.  See it here.

Budget Shortfall Due to Withholding Error?

I’ve written over past few weeks about a troubling trend in the state revenue which shows individual income tax receipts lagging despite solid economic growth.

As of last week, individual income tax receipts – the largest contributor to state revenues – was running about $60 million behind last year’s collection pace.  That’s concerning because we’re still early in the fiscal year.

In what appears to be a response to these numbers, the Department of Revenue announced on Friday that it’s “adjusting” withholding tables.  In other words, it seems they goofed when figuring how much Missourians should withhold. Presumably this was a miscalculation when figuring how the Trump tax cut would impact taxpayers.

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 16

The MOScout poll this week looked at Senate 16 where Dems have been cheered by a spirited campaign from Ryan Dillon.  Justin Brown just emerged for the GOP from a rough primary.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 59%

Disapprove: 38%

Not sure: 3%

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Justin Dan Brown and the Democrat Ryan Dillon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Justin Dan Brown: 54%

Ryan Dillon: 35%

Undecided: 11%

The Talk: 2020 Gov Primary?

One building dweller tells me that the “chatter is increasing that Jay Ashcroft is preparing a primary challenge to Parson.”  I asked around and couldn’t find evidence of it.  But one observer pointed out “I think all the statewides (Kehoe, Schmidt and Ashcroft) are [looking at it] because Parson may not run again or he might show weakness and he wasn’t elected to governor…”

And

If you think this talk is awfully early, think again.  With campaign contribution limits, it takes work – and time – to gather up the three and four-figure checks to make a seven or eight-figure war-chest for a statewide campaign.

McCaskill a NO on Kavanaugh

What It Means

Everybody knew how this movie was going to end.  We’re in a base election model.  Fighting for swing voters, and wooing Independents is an out-of-favor method for winning elections.  Instead campaigns are doing their darnest to turnout every vote from their side.

Koster to Host Fundy for CMC

Former attorney general Chris Koster will hold a fundraiser for Claire McCaskill next month.  Koster, now an executive with health giant Centene, has kept a low political profile since his loss to Eric Greitens in the 2016 gubernatorial race.

The event is October 5 at Koster’s Clayton home.

From the invitation: The first $2,700 of each contribution from an individual and the first $5,000 from a multicandidate committee will be allocated to McCaskill for Missouri for the 2018 General Election. The next $10,000 of each contribution from an individual and the next $5,000 of each contribution from a multicandidate committee will be allocated to the Missouri Democratic State Committee. The allocation formula above may change if any contributor makes a contribution that, when allocated, would exceed the amount that the contributor may lawfully give to any participant.

Biggest Change in the Governor’s Office

One MOScouter sent me description of their recent visit to the 2nd floor….

I went by the Governor's office to set an appointment for the first time since Gov. Mike Parson took over. The difference could not have been more striking.

Under Greitens, I often found the outer office empty except for the security person or persons and the receptionist… All the doors were closed, and everything seemed to be very quiet…

[During my visit] I walked through an open hallway door to find the inner office packed with people. The door to the governor's private office space was wide open with a view to an open outdoor space as well so the breeze could blow through. The governor was chatting in the reception area with a man in a wheelchair and a woman with the man… I greeted the governor, extended my hand, and offered congratulations, and the security detail did not tackle me. He warmly greeted me.

The office was full of activity, and a staff member came out to help me with what I needed and was quick to give me additional information about who does what so that I could ask for the right person in the future…

Sinquefield Gives $250K to MO Club for Growth

In the large contributions, Rex Sinquefield sent $250,000 to Missouri Club for Growth.  That’s his preferred vehicle to support state legislative candidates who believe in his free market philosophy.  Former speaker Tim Jones is the topper on MOClub who’ll be strategizing where the $$$ are spent.

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 8

The MOScout Weekly Poll shows Sen. Mike Cierpiot with a firm grip on Senate 8.  See the poll here.

Remember this is a district Trump won by 20%, Greitens won by 11%, and Blunt won by 5%.  See the map here.

But

What Dems will find interesting is that the poll shows reasons for them to be optimistic in taking House 34 (Roeber) and House 35 (Cross termed). Trump is underwater in both districts.  His approval is 43% to 52% disapproval in House 34; and it’s worse (38% to 55%) in House 35.

House-Parson Spat = Small Disagreement

From a top House Republican…. “I agree with your second commenter: if Republicans can stick together, we will thrive. That starts by not making senseless and unnecessary vetoes in the first place. It shouldn't be expected that the legislature be a 2nd tier branch of government that answers to the executive. All of this aside, this is a small disagreement and neither the governor or legislature should allow it to be a reason to not work together electorally and on good policy moving forward….”

What It Means

From one House source comes what feels like the majority opinion on how the governor handled the vetoes… This month we've learned the new governor is no different than other governors in recent memory… [They said] "The money for the TCD Unit is there in Health's budget. The override isn't necessary." Even if that money shows up in January's supplemental budget proposal, it means other functions in DHSS won't be funded for more than half the year to instead cover the mishandled veto of the program. Funding a legislatively-approved program that was specifically axed via executive action should be offensive to both legislators and taxpayers.

First in MOScout: Labor $$$ to Support Ballot Questions

We Are Missouri has amended its campaign paperwork to support Amendment 1 (CLEAN Missouri) and Prop B (increase in minimum wage).  See it here.

We Are Missouri was the committee for organized labor’s anti-right to work campaign.  RTW lost badly.  Only 32% of Missourians voting for its passage.

As of their latest campaign finance report earlier this month, We Are Missouri still had $525,000 in their campaign account leading to speculation about how they would use it.

MOScout Race Ratings

I created a spreadsheet putting each House and Senate race into a category – “uncontested,” “safe,” “likely,” and “lean” – to give a bird’s eye view how this cycle is shaping up.  I’m eschewing the “toss-up” category because it’s just gets too easy to throw close races in there. Also I have no fear of being wrong.  In truth the “leans” of either direction are my toss-up category. 

The spreadsheet is pretty self-explanatory.  

The Math

I have Dems +1 in the Senate, and +3 in the House.   But if the leans could go either way according to the tide of the evening, the range is: Senate even to +2 Dems; House: +1 Dems to +8 Dems.

Special Session Starts Today

The special session starts today at Noon.  Veto Session starts on Wednesday.  Don’t look for much real drama this week.  This is, at least in part, because the two top Republicans have bipartisan respect – if not support.

Speaker Todd Richardson – despite the Republicans’ monumental legislative achievements last session – will be remembered for his steady, measured leadership of the House with controversies at each bookend.  John Diehl’s resignation bringing him to the corner office, and Eric Greitens’ multiple scandals dominating his final year. Richardson played a cool and fair hand in both situations.

Additionally, Governor Mike Parson’s honeymoon continues.  From a Republican operative who has data on Parson from some recent polling… [Parson] has the highest approval levels among all Republican statewide office holders.  Of the Republicans who have an opinion of the Governor, 74% approve.  Of Democrats, he holds a 66% approval rating. 

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 30

Here are the toplines for this week’s poll.  It shows Lincoln Hough with a lead in Senate 30, though Claire McCaskill is neck and neck with Josh Hawley in the district. 

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Claire McCaskill. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 48%

Undecided: 5%

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Lincoln Hough and the Democrat Charlie Norr. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Lincoln Hough: 48%

Charlie Norr: 42%

Undecided: 10%

We Are Missouri Sitting on $525K…

Yesterday candidate and campaigns filed their “30 Day After the primary” finance reports, basically covering the month of August.

We Are Missouri, organized labor’s campaign committee to defeat Prop A, showed it raised $1.3 million and spent $1.2 million during that period.  It and now has $525,236 on-hand.  I previously wrote about talking to a union source who indicated there were discussions occurring about how to use the money.  The best guess is that they will use at least some of this leftover war-chest to target anti-labor legislators. The feeling is that if no political consequences are seen for passing right to work, the Republican-dominated legislature might be emboldened to revisit the issue sooner rather than later.