Cole County Open for Business

Just in time for the legislature to return to town, Cole County announced it was lifting its stay-at-home order and reopening bars and restaurants.

See the announcement here.

More Withholds

Faced with declining state revenues and economic uncertainty, Governor Mike Parson announced a fresh round of budget withholds. The new cuts amounted to $47 million.

Month-to-date state revenues – through April 17 – were down 38%. Those daily numbers can be volatile, but -38% is scary.

Budget

The first week back – the week of the 27th – the top priority of the House will be reconfigure and pass next year’s budget.

In many ways the House Budget Committee is flying blind. 

Latest COVID Model

The latest COVID model shows that curve may be turning right now in Missouri: peak hospital resources behind us, and peak deaths occurring this week. See it here. Most heartening, forecasted total deaths now lowered to 362.

MO Unemployment Ahead of US Rate

For the first time in years the Missouri unemployment rate was higher than the U.S. rate. March unemployment in Missouri jumped to 4.5% ahead of the 4.4% rate across the nation as a whole.

But with estimates that April’s unemployment number will come in around 20%, March’s number is largely irrelevant.

Galloway Trounces Parson’s Fundraising Number

Yesterday I wrote that Governor Mike Parson’s $300K+ fundraising number was strong given the lockdown and all. But Auditor Nicole Galloway blew that out of the water, more than doubling his number. She raised $640,281 in the last three months.

Still Parson retains a wide cash lead. His candidate committee has $1.4 million on-hand. Plus $3.8 million in his PAC, Uniting Missouri.

Legislature Will Tackle Budget

After the initial talk was that the legislature would forgo working on the budget when they reconvene later this month, it now sounds like they will tackle it.

Senate Minority Leader John Rizzo denounced the notion of prioritizing non-budget items. And some conservatives pointed to the constitution. 

Legislature Plans To Reconvene

Senate Floor Leader Caleb Rowden announced on Twitter (see it here) that the General Assembly was planning to reconvene in two weeks.

“#MOLeg is tentatively planning to return to regular session on Monday, April 27th.

Hawley Proposes Robust Safety Net

US Senator Josh Hawley called for a bold and aggressive welfare program. See it here.

Here is what I propose: Because the government has taken the step of closing the economy to protect public health, Congress should in turn protect every single job in this country for the duration of this crisis. And Congress should help our businesses rehire every worker who has already lost a job because of the coronavirus.

Beginning immediately, the federal government should cover 80 percent of wages for workers at any U.S. business, up to the national median wage, until this emergency is over. Further, it should offer businesses a bonus for rehiring workers laid off over the past month…

Legislature Passes Budget

St. Louis Public Radio’s Jaclyn Driscoll writes that we may see this scene replay itself in the coming weeks… Sen. Pro Tem @DaveSchatz26 says this week was a "trial run" of what it may look like if legislators come back to the Capitol. FY 21 budget still needs to be approved. @GovParsonMO hinted that there may need to be a special session called to get it done by June 30

Gregg Keller touts former US Senator Jim Talent for Navy Secretary. And Jeff Smith retorts “I mean do you really think he is more qualified to step in during a crisis of character and integrity than a certain governor who was *also* a Navy SEAL”

Senate 33: Eslinger IE PAC Formed

Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks, a new independent pro-Karla Eslinger PAC, was formed. Its treasurer is Terry Newton.

Eslinger is running against Rep. Robert Ross and Van Kelly in the Republican primary. 

Model Shows Fewer MO Deaths

The Covid model I’ve been following did an update last night. Their model now shows an earlier peak than they previously forecasted with many fewer deaths.

See it here.

They now project the peak of hospital resources being need on April 19 – with no bed or ICU shortage – and total Missouri deaths of 352. Their model suggests deaths peaking around April 18-20 with a dozen Missouri deaths a day.

Parson Orders Statewide Stay-At-Home

Reversing course, Governor Mike Parson signed off on a statewide stay-at-home order. See it here.

The move was greeted with relief in most corners.

Legislature Eyes Return Next Week

The Senate will return to the capitol on Tuesday, and they plan to pass both the FRA tax and the supplemental budget on Wednesday.

The House will return Wednesday to pass the supplemental.

The Senate will stream both the Appropriations Committee hearing on Tuesday and the floor proceedings on Wednesday.

Presumably legislators will minimize unnecessary speechifying, and the roll call votes will be lengthened to allow for social distancing.

The public will be discouraged from attending. 

Reacting to data means you’re behind the curve. By the time you see cases, you’re playing catch-up. New York Times reports on this phenomenon here. It means if you think the virus isn’t in rural areas because there aren’t reported cases, you’re not thinking about this crisis correctly.

Withholds Coming?

It looks like the governor’s office is preparing to announce withholds for the current fiscal year. As I’ve written about previously, this isn’t unexpected. The unprecedented situation is putting enormous pressure on the state budget.

· The sudden decline in economic activity which will certainly result in lower state tax receipts going forward.

· The decision to move Tax Day into July, which pushes it into the next fiscal year.

· In the new filings, a half-dozen Dems filed in House districts held by Republicans yesterday, signaling an expansion of their efforts.

· In the large contributions, the pro-Mike Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri, landed another six-figure check, indicating they continue to raise money.

Case Count Climbs

When I wrote my update last Monday, there were 106 confirmed coronavirus cases in Missouri. This morning there are 903.

· So far, former Sen. Rob Schaaf has been accurate in his gloomy assessment. Missouri’s cases are doubling every 3 or so days.

· And as many have pointed out, the number of positives is constrained by the number of testing. Anecdotal evidence abounds of a scarcity of tests.

Q3: How worried are you about the spread of the coronavirus?

Very worried: 48%

Somewhat worried: 42%

Not worried: 9%

Not sure: 1%