Treasurer Sweepstakes

One reader writes: I am a little surprised that Former Senator Dave Pearce's name hasn't been mentioned. Former banker, 6 years in the House, 8 years in the Senate, served with the Governor, and almost 2 years as Deputy Treasurer.

The answer is that Team Parson has pretty much decided that they’re not going to appoint another white male to their statewide ticket.  So Pearce, despite political and financial experience, isn’t on the list.

And

I’m told that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is not interested in returning to her former office.  She’s apparently has the “been there, done that” t-shirt.

Miles’ Missouri Map

The singular J Miles Coleman has a cool map of Missouri (see it here).  It shows the relative county-level performance by Josh Hawley, compared to President Donald Trump’s performance in 2016.  The red is where Hawley declined less than his statewide underperformance of Trump.  The blue is where he declined more.  “The comparisons help to illustrate the places where Trump may be more popular than other Republicans, and where other Republicans may have more strength than Trump.”

To my eyes, the most obvious patterns in the map are Hawley outperforming Trump in the bootheel, with McCaskill picking up ground in all the counties surrounding St. Louis.

Pickel Gets ATT Job

Chris Pickel is the new Craig Unruh.  Unruh led AT&T’s state legislative affairs for several years before being promoted a few months ago to president of AT&T’s state operations.

Pickel has served as AT&T’s Regional Director, handling governmental and external affairs in the St Louis region for a number of years.  He’s getting promoted to the state level, so we’ll be seeing him under the dome in the months to come.

Transportation Talk

I figured that transportation funding talk would hibernate for at least a year or two, but…

·         Exiting Rep. Kevin Corlew in the Post-Dispatch says “assigning to road projects some of a big increase in state revenue considered likely to occur following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last June that widened the reach of state taxes on online purchases.”

·         Sen. Wayne Wallingford, in SEMissourian, says “lawmakers could consider raising the fuel tax incrementally and keep it under the Hancock Amendment threshold. A 2-cent increase in the fuel tax could generate an estimated $80 million annually.”

·         Also in SE Missourian, Rep. Rick Francis says “lawmakers should consider raising vehicle license and registration fees. Such a move would not only help fund road and bridge projects, but also make it easier to maintain license offices in rural areas.”

·         And Kathy Swan suggests, “the Legislature should consider going to voters with a transportation tax that includes a sunset provision.”

What It Means

Despite the latest tax rejection from the voters, it sounds like this issue will be in the mix again this year.  And the governor’s office is likely to be neck-deep in the discussions as it remains a priority for Parson.

MO in Fifth Risk

Over the weekend, I had a chance to read Michael Lewis’ new book, The Fifth Risk (see it here).  It’s harrowing account of the lackadaisical Trump transition team, and the need to take governing seriously.  Missouri has several cameos in the book…

·         Former Kit Bond staffer, Brian Klippenstein of Protect the Harvest, tries to help Trump transition in Department of Agriculture.

·         The Joplin Tornado was a catalyzing event for Department of Commerce staffers to make tornado warnings more effective

·         And Ferguson is mentioned in the potential to use data concerning police-citizen interaction to improve public safety.

Does Parson Get a Credible GOP Challenger?

Maybe some huff and puff, but I doubt anything actually materializes.

Who’s on Dem List for 2020?

No it’s not too early; it might even be a little late…

·         Sen. Scott Sifton has been considering a gubernatorial run. 

·         Supporters of Auditor Nicole Galloway would probably see her as first in line for that ballot spot – if she wants it.

·         Russ Carnahan, who helped House Dems in their fundraising and outreach efforts this cycle, is said to be open to a 2020 statewide run.

·         But one savvy Dem tells me that his party should be seeking a candidate from outside the political bubble, for example a woman business leader.  Such a person would be without the baggage of a “career politician.”  They’d have a business resume that plays to the Dem Party’s strength: economic issues (anti-RTW, boasting minimum wage); and they’d have a demographic profile to seize on Republican weakness with college-educated women.

Demoralized Dems

As Missouri Democrats pick up the smashed shards of their ‘blue wave’ dream and start to piece a 2020 plan together, one of the most sobering facts they’ll have to confront is the shocking margins by which Republicans won a lot of state senate districts on Tuesday.

Consider:

·         Senate 22 was supposed to be one of the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbents.  But Paul Wieland finished with 58%.  JeffCo essentially matched St. Charles as Sen. Bob Onder won with 59.7%. 

·         Senate 16 and Senate 18 had Democratic senators just a dozen years ago and now they seem utterly out of reach to Dems.  In Senate 16, Dems fielded a legitimate candidate who worked hard, built an organization, raised money, had a message and fit the district.  And still he was crushed by 40 points, 70% to 30%.  Similarly, Cindy O’Laughlin in Senate 18 won 70% of the vote.

And Mountainous GOP Senate Margins Elsewhere

Senate 6 (Mike Bernskoetter): 73.2% 

Senate 10 (Jeanie Riddle): 70.3%

Senate 12 (Dan Hegeman): 72.5%

Senate 20 (Eric Burlison): 73.9%

Senate 26 (Dave Schatz): 64%

Senate 28 (Sandy Crawford): 79.2%

Senate 32 (Bill White): 73.7%           

Jefferson County = All Red

Senate 22 wasn’t close in the end.  Incumbent Sen. Paul Wieland romped to a twenty-point win over Democrat Robert Butler (58% to 38%).  But that race was just one of many data points showing Republicans have fired up their hold on the once-battleground Jefferson County.

Josh Hawley beat Claire McCaskill in JeffCo 54% to 42%.  Dennis Gannon easily defeated Jeff Roorda for Jefferson County Executive 58% to 42%.  And Republicans re-took House 97 from Democrats as well as House 118 where Ben Harris is term-limited.

Maybe

The Dems high-water mark in JeffCo for the foreseeable future will have been Jason Kander’s 44% in 2016….

What To Watch For Tonight

·         Were Democrats able to use the President Donald Trump to energize their base and bring in new voters from the suburbs?  That’ll impact the turnout and outcome of the US Senate race, but also a shift in the state legislative seats.  The conventional wisdom now is that Republicans will pick up the last remaining exurban seats this cycle, but their hold on the suburbs will start to fray.  We’ll see…

·         If voters distinguish (as the MOScout poll suggests) between Amendment 2 medical marijuana and Amendment 3 medical marijuana, some think ballot position may have a lot to do with it.  The theory is that folks in favor of MMJ will vote yes when they first encounter it, then read a little closer with the second proposal and reject the higher tax.  If that happens give the props to Amendment 2 campaigners who gamed out that scenario months ago and hurried to turn in their signatures before the competing IP.

·         The biggest earthquake could be the passage of CLEAN Missouri which would overhaul the redistricting process, BUT there’ll be litigation from opponents if it passes, AND – as I wrote last week – Republicans are already plotting a possible counter proposal to substitute it.

Bond’s Closing Argument on Prop D: Adjustment

There are some nice nuances to Kit Bond’s pitch for Prop D.  Listen to it here.  First, he identifies himself as former governor, instead of former Senator.  One assumes that governors are more popular than senators – especially right now in the midst of the McCaskill-Hawley fight.

Second, he doesn’t talk about a tax increase.  Nope, he says it’s been 22 years since we “adjusted” the gas tax for inflation. 

Beautiful.

Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O’Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 47%

Japheth Campbell: 1%

Jo Crain: 1%

Craig O’Dear: 1%

Undecided: 3%

October Revenues Sink

State tax receipts continued to disappoint in October.  Net general revenues collections were 6.1% lower in October 2018 than they were in October 2017.  The main culprit again was individual income tax receipts which were 6.2% below the previous year’s figure.  This appears to be residual damage from the erroneous withholding tables were which corrected by the Department of Revenue last month.

Fiscal year to date, state revenues have declined 3.87%.

HRCC: Boom!

In the large independent expenditure reports Republicans drop $150K into House 14 defending incumbent Rep. Kevin Corlew against Democrat Matt Sain.  And in House 70, there’s a $74K expenditure to help incumbent Rep. Mark Matthiesen against Democrat Paula Brown.

Largest IEs

Here are the largest independent expenditures (so far) in the state legislatives races.

$187,545 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Adrian Plank (House 47).

$179,648 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Maren Bell Jones (House 44).

$142,984 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$101,596 - Middle Class Missouri PAC opposing Lincoln Hough (Senate 30).

$101,500 - Majority Forward supporting Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$101,400 - Lincoln PAC supporting Lincoln Hough (Senate 30).

$91,308 - Missouri Club for Growth Political Action Committee supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$82,249 - Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$75,000 - House Republican Campaign Committee opposing Matt Sain (House 14).

$74,030 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

Follow-Up on GOP Optimism: The Turn-Out Game

Republican optimism hinges on voter enthusiasm.  The MOScout polls on the US Senate race show both Josh Hawley and Claire McCaskill having consolidated their partisan voter base.  And while there’s some tug-of-war in the numbers among the non-partisan voters, election predictions are largely based on turn-out predictions at this point.  Who will show up to vote?

Driving the Day: Kehoe Stumps SW MO for Prop D

Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe will zip through Southwest Missouri today pitching Prop D. It starts at noon…

What It Means

This is simply unprecedented.  Maybe never has Missouri seen a governor and lieutenant governor throw all their political capital behind a tax increase.  Either caution, or ambition, or both, have prevented such a full-throttled, unabashed effort to sell the idea to Missouri voters.  Pols have worried that such actions would result in being tagged as “big taxers” in their next campaign.  Parson and Kehoe are showing no such fear.

Who Won the Week?

Mike Parson – As he continues to make his sales pitch for Prop D, the authenticity factor works in his favor.  Folks can tell it not about politics; he believes in the policy.

Josh Hawley – Appears to be opening a lead in the latest MOScout Poll.  Republicans have complained over the past year about a sometimes lackluster campaign from Hawley, but he might be peaking at just the right time….

Nicole Galloway – Separating her race from the US Senate race, Galloway has taken a ten-point lead.  Time to start reviewing demographer resumes?...

Elijah Haahr – Receives accolades for the first big decision of his speakership, choosing Dana Rademan Miller as the next House Clerk in a deliberate process with bi-partisan support.

Haahr’s First Decision

One insider looks at Speaker-Designate Elijah Haahr’s first decision – the installation of Dana Rademan Miller as new House Clerk – and sees good omens for the type of leadership he’ll bring to the speaker’s office.  Among the hallmarks…

·         A deliberate process.

·         The absence of cronyism.

·         The inclusion of the minority party to build consensus.

·         Settling on a well-qualified candidate.

·         Smooth roll-out.