“Eye Off the Ball?”

Governor Mike Parson’s pivot to violent crime may backfire if Missouri emerges as a national hotspot of the coronavirus…

2,084 new COVID cases in Missouri yesterday.

Rowden PAC Backs Cole

One of yesterday’s “large contributions” that’s generating some buzz is Majority Forward PAC sending $60,000 to Southwest Conservative Values PAC.

Majority Forward is the PAC allied with Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden. And Southwest Values is allied with David Cole.

Looking At Facebook Ads

A scan through the Facebook Ad Library lets you see what message candidates are pushing right now.

In the governor’s race, most of Governor Mike Parson’s ads involve the 2nd Amendment and “law and order.”

Meanwhile Auditor Nicole Galloway’s highlight that the race is winnable.

Senate 25: Latest Justice Ad Features Gardner

The latest Eddy Justice ad in Senate 25 features the McCloskeys and Kim Gardner. See it here.

Tag-line: “If you’re tired of the mobs and moderates, give them Justice. Hardcore conservative Eddy Justice.”

Non-Committee Expenditures

It’s always worth scanning through the non-committee expenditures around election time….

• Opportunity Solutions Project and Americans for Prosperity each spent money against MedEx, but not in great amounts $5-$10K.

• Similarly, KidsWin Missouri and Missouri Rural Crisis Center both spent money supporting Med Ex.

1. Missouri Initial Unemployment Claims fall.

2. Broader unemployment picture.

3. A look at continuing claims.

4. MO COVID cases rise.

5. Approval ratings of “hotspot” governors.

6. July COH – governor race.

7. July COH – lieutenant governor race.

8. July COH – secretary of state race.

9. July COH – treasurer race.

10. July COH – attorney general race.

Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jack Bondon, Rick Brattin and Bill Yarberry. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jack Bondon: 40%

Rick Brattin: 34%

McCloskeys as GOP Heroes?
The McCloskeys, those gun-waving St. Louis City lawyers, have become a rallying point for the Missouri GOP. I find the breadth of their embrace fascinating. I asked a few Republican consultants about the phenomenon...

Brady PAC Hearts Galloway

Brady PAC, the sister organization of Brady, the nation’s oldest gun violence prevention advocacy group, is endorsing Nicole Galloway this morning.

I’m told we’ll see $25,000 from the PAC as well as “activating an army of more than 800,000 grassroots supporters with the goal of raising at least $100,000 for the campaign.”

MedEx Campaign Nears $10M Mark

It looks like the campaign to expand Medicaid has raised about $10 million. The July finance filing of the campaign committee, Missourians for Healthcare, reported that it had raised $5,840,513.

Since July 1, according to the Missouri Ethics Commission website, there have been large contributions into the committee of over $4,000,000.

GOP Rallies Around McCloskeys

With the economy in disarray after the coronavirus shutdown, no good clarity over the future of the COVID contagion, and a president with slipping approval ratings, Missouri Republicans are feasting on the McCloskey issue like comfort food.

Is the 2nd Amendment still a hot button with voters amid current turmoil? We’ll see….

Parson Pivot Continues
We’ll see whether Parson is successful in making violent crime in Missouri’s urban areas the crisis du jour while COVID flares up increasingly in rural Missouri. Because just talking up crime doesn’t make the coronavirus go away…

1. BLM as GOP Primary Issue

2. GOP – Dem split on “big issues”

3. Presidential demographics split

4. Fauci becoming politicized figure

5. 20 years of trade deficits.

6. But we’re winning the “labor trade war.”

Franks to Gen Progress

Former Rep. Bruce Franks has joined Generation Progress as Senior Consultant.

See it here.

Anti-MedEx Going the “Grassroots” Route?

With no big checks coming into the committee formed to oppose Medicaid expansion, it appears that opponents are working the social media angle.

Dozens of Republican legislators and elected officials have made short videos exhorting viewers to vote No on the ballot question.

Special Session Called

As expected, Governor Mike Parson called a special session to address violent crime in Missouri. It is to begin Monday July 27.

Parson Joins Team McCloskey

I never would have predicted that two whiny lawyers would become a conservative cause celebre, but here we are.

Yesterday, Governor Mike Parson threw his lot in with the McCloskeys.

Sabato Moves MO

The momentum continues for Team Galloway…

Larry Sabato’s widely followed “Crystal Ball” moved Missouri’s electoral college rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and moved the gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Jobs as Crime Deterrent

With the governor mulling a special session focused on crime, some worry it will devolve into election year “tough on crime” pandering. But if data suggests that unemployed ex-cons are highly likely to commit new crimes, might Parson seek to include in his crime package measures that would raise the odds of successful re-entry, especially for parolees w/ high recidivism risk and/or a history of violent offenses?

1. Americans more pessimistic on COVID.

2. Think it’s here for a while.

3. E-commerce leap.

4. COVID sends kids home.

5. Incarceration rates by country.

6. More Republican women running for Congress.

7. MOScout breakdown of House races.